It's the Northern Ireland protocol, let's not show ourselves to be stupid

The British government has badly mis-calculated, its foreign policy. It has allowed itself to be sidelined by Brexit. It has given way to the clamour of a substantial minority of the British public for their nation to act with complete independence when it is not possible to do so. Brexit is a severe diplomatic problem. The UK has upset the European Union, China and the USA. Brexit was always a stupid idea which will not have any long term benefit for our country. 

There is no point upsetting the US by not implementing the Northern Ireland protocol in its entirety. The US helped Britain to organise the peace in the province. It is not just the US president who supports the protocol but both sides of Congress too. Equally, there is no point in upsetting the EU over this issue. Britain could end up friendless, diminished and powerless to influence world events, and this would be a great shame.

Citizens who truly support their country should see the need not to upset their best friends. They should also be realistic about what their country can and cannot do. Britain is no longer a world power that can act alone. It needs allies and friends to work with. It should have been glad to share its sovereignty with its closest neighbours in Europe. We need to do this for our economy, our peace and security and to manage the climate crisis. One day the electorate of Britain will see that Brexit was a mistake. If we offend our neighbours they might not let us rejoin the club. We also upset the US at our peril, it is time for a change of attitude. Britain is a much better country when it gets involved with and co-operates with its greatest friends.

Afghanistan and Global Britain

 The British failed to conquer Afghanistan, so did the Russians and now the Americans. There are some lessons to be learnt here. It is clear that the Taliban were able to  to bide their time, and were able to take conquer Afghanistan not by just the use of force, but with guile, diplomacy and political nous. They must also, have enjoyed popular support. They fooled the Americans who initially supported them when they fought against the Russian invasion in the 1990s. The Americans gave them modern arms and plenty of money. They then turned the tables on the Americans who deposed them from power after 9/11. The might of America has been defeated and American sovereignty has been diminished after an humiliating defeat. Britain tagged along with the American invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11: it hardly had a choice as American sovereignty is much more powerful than British sovereignty.

When America decided to pull out Britain had no choice but to follow. Britain is now dependent upon America to secure Kabul Airport so that British citizens can be evacuated along with some but not all of the Afghanis who helped the British cause. It should be noted that France and Germany and other  Western states are able, with the help of the Americans, to  evacuate their citizens without sending troops. The British contingent of troops are insufficient to secure the Airport alone. It is a sad fact that Britain cannot act alone to save anyone if the Taliban insist on taking back the Airport. Real Politics have hit Britain in the face  to show the British people that "Global Britain" is an illusion and absolute sovereignty is another illusion.

In the British parliament, yesterday , the government came in for intense criticism from not doing enough, but Britain has neither the power or influence to alter the decision to retreat: but what could it do? The British government was condemned for doing nothing even though it was virtually powerless to act alone. The whole situation is a national embarrassment but the British government is not solely to blame for this. However, many countries  will now be smiling at Britain's chagrin and some will be sneering at Britain: schadenfreude now meets realpolitik.

It was even suggested in Parliament that Britain should intervene militarily where America left off, and that some multi-national force should be organised by Britain without American support. This is "pie in the sky". Who will support Britain? Germany, France , Italy and Spain, but after the 2016 referendum that is wishful thinking. Who will join Britain in a military pact, when it reneges on its international commitments over the Northern Ireland protocol? Lives could be lost again for nothing the stakes are much higher. 

Britain has also decided to cut its foreign aid budget but now this must be reversed, the only influence we have left now is  Money.

It is time for the British people to wake up to the fact that the UK is no longer a world power and has not been since before the Second World War. Our future lies with Europe,  as the only way we can influence world events is by co-operating with France and Germany. We will have to share our sovereignty with Europe again to regain influence with the US. "Global Britain"  was just an empty slogan. Sooner or later, the public will recognise this and their political parties will have to change tack and develop a new policy.

Will a piece of cloth around your face really protect you ?

There's masks and then there's masks; FFP3 professional surgical masks will protect you from Sars Cov 2 transmission, a piece of cloth around your face hardly will.

I had a good conversation with our widow cleaner his morning, his idea of controlling the Covid 19 pandemic was for every one to be obliged by law to wear a cloth or surgical mask when going to a supermarket, pub etc. but to relieve ourselves of other measures such as social distancing. He was not impressed with youngsters going to a nightclub, getting smashed or high and then dancing around and kissing one another. I got the impression that he wanted that banned. 

I thought to myself dream on but I was too polite to suggest that he was deluding himself. There have hardly been any peer reviewed randomised controlled trials of masks, or other measures, used to reduce the transmission of Sars Cov 2 or any other virus for that matter. There is there is no proof whether masks work or not and to what extent.

One thing is clear, in the UK, there is a third wave of the epidemic despite mask wearing,  the 2 metre distance rule and the rule of 6 indoors. Infections are now out of control even after more than  50%   of the adult population has been vaccinated by highly effective vaccines.

To rely on ordinay  masks  alone to protect yourself and others from transmission of the Sars Cov 2 virus is probably a big mistake. 

Some research has been done regarding the efficacy of FFP3 masks compared to ordinary surgical masks. The FFP3 mask has been observed to be many more time effective at filtering out the Sars Cov 2 virus. A well fitted mask used by a trained user filters out most virus particles to leave wearers and those around them safe from infection. An ordinary surgical masks is found wanting when working directly with Covid 19 patients.

The results of these observations made in a Cambridgeshire are shown below. This was not a randomised controlled trial and the results were not peer reviewed, but the findings are promising enough for a recommendation to be made that all staff dealing with Covid 19 patients should wear FFP or Full face Protection Masks. I am surprised that this was not the case from the outset of the epidemic.

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/upgrading-ppe-for-staff-working-on-covid-19-wards-cut-hospital-acquired-infections-dramatically

https://www.cuh.nhs.uk/news/drop-in-staff-covid-19-infections-after-ppe-upgrade/

https://www.authorea.com/users/421653/articles/527590-ffp3-respirators-protect-healthcare-workers-against-infection-with-sars-cov-2?commit=e567e67501cd6ee0dd1a6e8e4acdf2c4fd70e0ec

It is worth reading these articles to put mask wearing into perspective.

It is my view that the medical authorities have placed too much emphasis on the use of cloth masks and ordinary surgical masks to protect the public. They do help, perhaps, to reduce transmission of the virus but it is not clear by how much; no epidemiologist is prepared to say to the public that there is no proof that they work at all, or even if they do, by how much do they reduce the risk of infection. Masks must be used along with social distance, the rule of six  and improved ventilation for them to work. In fact, if a two meter distance was adhered to, along with reduced crowds in confined spaces there would probably be no need for masks. Recently, I have sat on trains and in restaurants where  people have sat right next to me. I was wearing a mask out of courtesy , but did not feel 100% safe from transmission of the virus. Of course, we have to take risks in our daily lives, but I would prefer it if social distancing was strictly enforced to reduce the viral load of infective agents which can easily pass through a standard everyday mask.

The medical authorities must not lull the public into a false sense of security to believe that ordinary masks alone can stop the spread of the  Covid 19 virus and the epidemic: they simply cannot.

I shall wear a mask as a matter of courtesy, whilst being aware that it is probably best to avoid crowded places where social distancing measures are ignored. The vaccinations have been proven to work by randomised controlled trials which have been peer reviewed, and thank heavens for that. Vaccinations have also been proven to be safe. The jab is key to solving the the problems of the pandemic but it too must be used with other measures to contain the virus. It looks as though the vaccine protects you from a severe form of the Covid 19 disease so that the need hospitalisation is reduced. Vaccination does not fully protect you, however from, catching the disease again. Covid 19 is not a pleasant disease to catch even in its mild form, and further research needs to be done to examine the chronic effects of long Covid.

The epidemic is still raging strong and relying on just a mask to protect you and others is foolhardy. The best approach, from my point of view, is to have the vaccine and still bear in mind social distancing. If you must wear a mask then buy an FFP3 professional mask and learn how to use it safely with out putting others at risk but you might find that totally impractical when you want to eat a sandwich and drink a pint at the local.

It was "England expects" "wot" lost it

I had visions of writing a panegyric about the England football team this morning but they lost again, to Italy, in a penalty shoot-out in the Euro 2020 championships.

The team and their coach and manager should not be blamed. They got to the final and drew at both full and extra time. Surely, there is case for sharing the title when the final is a draw, just like a cricket series or a British and Irish Lions series - honours can be even. But, of course modern commercial and nationalistic instincts dictate that there must only be one winner.

There were some disturbing aspects to the latest football competition.

Football is not the most important game in the world. In my opinion Rugby is; I have been to a number of Rugby World Cup championships.  The supporters put the sport above most other considerations, the aggression only happens on the pitch but in a controlled way. The supporters do not cry into their beer if their team loses and do not become euphoric and silly if their team wins. The supporters, from every competing country, meet without rancour and racism. Rugby Football is a complete contrast to  Association Football in this respect. There is some of the "Corinthian spirit" left.

There is this dreadful attitude amongst some Football supporters and the media that England expects a win and that England is entitled to win. The team is lauded if it wins and is traduced if it loses.  The media piles pressure on the team. Gareth Southgate, the coach, was featured throughout the contest missing a penalty in 1996 and was unjustifiably blamed for an England defeat. The young players who missed penalties in the latest game will now be featured relentlessly in play backs and be blamed unjustifiably for another defeat.

 The "England expects" attitude is exacerbated by corrosive nationalism whipped up by the media. This has encouraged the more lunatic fringe of so called England "supporters" to indulge in violence amongst themselves, harassment of the children of  Danish supporters, booing the national anthems of opponent teams, booing when Italy took their penalties, shining laser beams in the eyes of the opposing team and probably the worst aspect of it all - racism and the abuse that it generates.

How can a team be expected to perform at its full potential when they see these shameful events happening before their eyes, whilst unprotected from the media attention and opprobrium from some quarters.

The young men who missed their penalties have been exposed to extreme pressure. They knew that they could not afford to miss because of the abuse that they would be subjected to, and the attitude that they are only true Englishmen when they score goals but are foreigners when they miss. These men pushed themselves to their limits  to do their best for their parents, communities and, dare I say it, their country; so probably the pressure prevented them from performing as they would have done on the training field. The press and media are now pressurising them further by repeatedly showing what happened. Anyone who is interested in football saw what happened and there is no need to show it again.

We have seen how the blatant nationalism spoils the chances of other British or English hopefuls. The young lady who performed so well in the Wimbledon championships was exposed to extreme pressure from the media and the adoring public. This caused her to show all the symptoms of a panic attack with breathing difficulties, whilst playing a match, after the pressure became too much for her. This ruined her match and performance on the day and it could ruin her promising sports career. 

You do not become a top Football  or Tennis player because you are British or English. You do it by developing your talents and working hard. Nationality does not confer rights upon you and, nationality should confer no obligations upon you to perform in a certain way. British or English nationality does not entitle you or any one else to win or gain privileges. The only thing that British or English nationality should guarantee is basic human rights and respect for everyone despite the colour of their skin or their background.

There is a Football World Cup competition around the corner. English football will be relying upon the same players to do well. The competition will be stronger with Brazil and Argentina added to the equation. If the public want the English team to do better then the abuse and triumphalism will have to stop and, the pressure on the team and their manager will have to be projected into a different direction. The "England expects" attitude will have to be dropped. All the players should be given respect. The media will have a huge part to play to relieve the pressure on the team by not incessantly replaying missed penalties and mistakes. 

If you want to give England a fair chance of winning then please cool it, after all its only a game and the sport itself should be bigger than any individual player, supporter or nation. Let's not miss the point again.

Remain voters should forget about campaigning for Britain to rejoin the EU in any form

 It is clear that Britain will not be returning to the EU , the Single Market or the Customs Union anytime soon. If we were to apply the Europeans would be unlikely to accept us. The whole country will have to learn to live with the consequences of leaving the Union. A small majority of the population voted for it but there was a large majority in Parliament; it is not just the Conservative party who will have to accept the responsibility for any failure.

The Brexit project will no doubt fail; there has been no  plan for  a "Global Britain", what does that mean in detail and in strategy? There are no unicorns galloping over the horizon to assure us of a prosperous future.

What happens if Scotland decides to leave the United Kingdom? Where is the contingency plan for this? What can the British government offer to Scotland to stop them seceding?

 Northern Ireland will soon see a "Catholic majority" population.  This will create fear amongst many in the "Protestant loyalist" community. It is quite clear that demographic changes and changes of political opinion are going to  affect future elections. Northern Ireland voted by a small majority to remain in the EU; so what happens if it that vote translates into support for a united Ireland? A first past the post referendum could lead to disastrous consequences and another civil war if a substantial majority for a united Ireland is not achieved in a referendum. The "Catholic majority" likewise might resent being asked to remain in the UK. We now have a tinderbox  to contend with.

The EU was the glue that held the UK together, human rights were guaranteed, free trade was guaranteed and most importantly of all the free movement of labour was guaranteed. The Scottish people were prepared to be part of a United Kingdom that was part of the EU. Likewise most people in Northern Ireland felt the same: there was no need for division; we could live in friendship and peace with one another. The situation has now radically changed. It is both illegal and taboo for one EU nation to claim  sovereignty over another member state. This no longer applies to Brexit. The Irish Deputy Prime Minister is openly saying that Ireland should prepare for unification. This would not have happened before Brexit.  In some respects this claim about Irish re-unification breaks the spirit of  Belfast Agreement, but so does the British Prime Minister's assertion that he would absolutely protect the integrity of the UK- think about it.

Remain voters should prepare themselves for trouble ahead as leave voters, in the main, could not care less.

My wife and I love living in the UK and in particular in London. We would only leave if things go badly wrong and there is active and violent prejudice against EU and other foreign citizens - which is un-likely. However, we both have the insurance policy of EU passports. Most British voters do not have that privilege and will be stuck with the consequences of  a severe failure associated with Brexit, so it is time to have your own contingency plan. Don't believe that it cannot happen here

Middle East Wars again

 One again I have to write about war between Israel and Palestine. Is it not time for the fighting to stop? There is a solution to be gained and it is based upon human rights. The Palestinians are entitled to live in peace without their civilians being bombed. Israel has a right to exist as an independent state without their citizens being subject to attack from outside sources. The time for ethnic war and cleansing must stop. Invading and attacking forces on both sides must stop. There should be a two states solution implemented. Surely, the Palestinians have the right o there own state?

I despair for the human race, we are all from the same sub-species and race, but we are divided by religious and ethnic considerations. However, this is no reason for war. Human beings are the worse species of animals on the planet and it seems that not for one minute can we curb our aggressive nature and the desire for revenge. We cannot grow out of the irrational attitude that, " they started it and now we are going to finish it".

There is now a case for a solution to be imposed upon the combattants by the United Nations; so the UN Security Council should give the General Secretary the authority to impose a solution backed up by sanctions and force if necessary. Peace needs to be achieved, and who knows the peace may lead to a rapprochement?

Of course, this will not happen and it looks as though attack and revenge attack will be the continuous  modus operandi of both the Israelis and the Palestinians. I appeal to both sides to stop the killing, wounding and devastation  now.

Michael Collins - The best of America

Yesterday, the death of Michael Collins, at the age of 90, was announced. He  was  one of the bravest and was a shining light, and puts to shame some of the US leaders that that dared to undermine the American nation and its constitution.

In my mind he was probably the bravest of the Apollo 11 crew but by a narrow margin. Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong  were never completely alone during their mission. If something went wrong they could at least rely upon each other, if only for reassurance,  if they were cut off from communication with mission control or Collins in the command module. 

Whilst Collins was orbiting the Moon, on the far side, he was completely isolated, and he could not even see the Earth. He was the second human to be in this position. This was complete isolation hundreds of thousands of kilometers from the Earth and his family and friends. He had to hold his nerve and solve problems alone. He was a key member of the team to ensure the safe return of his comrades to his command module, when they arrived back from their mission to the surface of the moon.

I have no doubt that Collins was carefully selected for his task; the mission directors would have to be certain that Collins had an  exceptionally strong and stable character and was able to think rationally at all times. They would need to be assured that despite the isolation he would have, at all times, concentrated on the safe return of his team mates. He was a truly brave man along with his comrades.

The strength of his character comes across in his wonderful book "Carrying The Fire". His book also charts the progress of one of mankind's greatest achievements.

Soon a team of brave people, probably Americans, will land on the Moon again. I hope I am alive to see this landing for a second time, for it will be just as great an achievement but probably without someone being totally cut off from their home.