The 2016 referendum which questioned the British public whether we should leave the European Union or remain has left a divisive and toxic body political, and the crisis it has created is still playing out. The decision to leave the EU was made without any prior and independent critical examination of the cost benefits of Brexit or consideration of the consequences. There was no plan about what to do after Brexit, and how to exploit any advantage that Brexit could confer - a recipe for failure, division and disaster.
It is a severe mistake to change the constitution on the basis of a simply majority of the votes in a referendum. Britain decided to leave the EU on the basis of a simple majority. 52.89 %, of registered voters, voted to Leave and 48.11%, of registered voters, voted to remain but 27.79%, of registered voters, chose to abstain.. If everyone had voted or if the referendum had been held on another day then the result could have been different. The referendum also gave liars and political chancers the opportunity to disrupt the British un- written constitution to gain political power for themselves. Brexit has turned out to be an abject failure which after 5 years has meant that our country is worse off economically, politically, socially, financially and diplomatically.
Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU but England and Wales voted to leave, further division which could lead to the United Kingdom to breaking up with all the problems that would entail. The political divisions have meant that the realm has been unable to capitalise on any potential economic benefit from Brexit, and in fact our international trading position has got worse.
Most sensible countries demand a 2/3 majority before changing the constitution either in a referendum or a in parliamentary vote to avoid division. Did our parliamentarians show any sense when deciding upon the terms of the referendum?
The supposed trade benefits of becoming closer to the US did not materialise, in fact the tariff regime has got worse. Britain has concluded some trade agreements with nations such as Canada and India but these agreements were hardly better than what we had before Brexit. Britain has missed out on the EU -Mercosur Agreement which is worth billions in mutual trade.
From a political point of view it allowed the Brexiteer wing of the Conservative party to undermine Theresa May's premiership. May was trying to alleviate the detrimental effects of Brexit by trying to keep Britain in the Single Market, but eventually she was deposed. The Brexit wing of the party then set about removing some of the more thoughtful and progressive MP's from their constituencies. The Conservative party then lost its One Nation credentials.
The new Conservative Prime Minister then embarrassed the Queen, as head of state, by advising her to illegally prorogue parliament for paarty political advantage. The Queen then had to suffer the indignity of her Supreme Court overriding her illegal decision.
The political division did not stop there: parliament was asked what sort of Brexit they wanted, but neither the Labour Party nor the Conservative party could agree, MP's were given the opportunity to vote for leaving the EU but stay in the Single Market or the Customs union, but they could not raise enough votes for either option. The result was a hard-line and unmitigated Brexit. The political divisions are many and their toxicity still plagues our body politic.
From a social point of point, Brexit has meant that young people can no longer up sticks and work in the EU for a short period or travel around freely to gain experience and find marriage partners and bring their partners back to Britain with ease. British business men can no longer travel so freely to the EU or set up business there or become directors of European companies. The British economic model has relied upon imported labour. The EU work force was young and mobile and they brought an entrepreneurial spirit with them. EU youngsters can no longer travel freely to the UK. The dreams of many European youngsters have been foiled.
Part of the reason why so many voters voted for Brexit was their worry about immigration. But without immigration and the migration of workers some sections of the British economy would be severely affected. When the Europeans stopped coming or went home because they felt un-welcome, we had to replace them with workers from South East Asia and East Asia. These migrants were the sort of people people that some xenophobic Brexiteers really didn't want in our country and what is more they had to pay to come here. And they wanted to bring their families with them , this has resulted in the immigration figures soaring, and because of the xenophobia, governments have become more and more restrictive towards these new residents . This has meant that our society just appears to be mean and nasty and exploitative towards our migrant neighbours. This is a sad state of affairs.
Financially, we are much worse off; the pound has plunged in value leading to food and consumer goods inflation. Our GDP has lost ground meaning that tax income has declined and government bond yields have risen dramatically. Britain is now paying billions more in financing government debt ; billions which could contribute to the improvement of social care and the NHS, and billions more which could be spent on defence. The economic and financial problems caused by Brexit have meant that no government despite its promises has much room for manoeuvre. The current political division could lead to an economic and financial crisis just like we had in the 1970's when Britain had to be bailed out by the IMF. Who will bail us out now? The US, China or India? I don't think so . The EU would have to bail us out, but they will exact a price.
Diplomatically, Britain has been weakened by Brexit and it no longer has much strength to exercise its sovereignty as witnessed by the Chagos islands fiasco. Britain is legally obliged to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sovereignty. One minute the US government approved of the British return of the Chagos islands, but the next minute the US objected, Britain just had to do what it was told; so much for Britain being stronger out of Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqg3nqynlo
The present Labour government knows that Brexit was a mistake, but now it is too weak to challenge the liars and the chancers who are still dictating the policy towards Brexit. We need a return to some sort of political sanity and stability and strength of purpose.
What lessons have I learnt from this. Don't change the constitution in a referendum without a two thirds majority. In a multi-nation state gain the consent of all the constituent nations for complex constitutional change as well. Before you decide to have a référendum critically examine the costs and benefits and the consequences and have a plan - Failure is easy; success requires hard work, intelligence and above all integrity.
