There is a danger that "AI" will cause the extinction of the human race.

 The "AI" industry is now claiming that its products could lead to the extinction of the human race and that we are all doomed. If this comes to pass, it won't be because  "AI " programs have become psychopathic; it will be because human beings will have willed it and organised it.

"AI" is just a a highly organised algorithmic program which performs mathematical  and decision table calculations at such  fast speeds that it is beyond human comprehension. They are not self-motivated even if they are autonomous. They have no feelings, no moral compass, they are neither beneficent or maleficent. They do not think in human terms.

At the moment they are just tools which can either be used for the good of mankind or the bad of mankind.

The development of nuclear weapons can be used as an analogy. A nuclear bomb is created by the use of nuclear fissile and nuclear fusion materiel. Once the chain reaction of nuclear fusion is started, it happens very quickly and it is very difficult to stop.. Unimaginable amounts of energy can be be released  in a split second  to produce an explosion that is the equivalent of thousands or even millions tonnes of TNT being detonated. These weapons have been used already and it is within the bounds of possibility that they will be used again in a war that could destroy the whole of humanity. If humans had not invented such weapons they could not be used. It is not the actual bombs themselves which are the true danger, but it is the humans who have indulged in arms races, to produce such dangerous weapons.  Nuclear bombs were invented by fools who could not appreciate the consequences of their actions. 

We are told by politicians and nuclear entrepreneurs  that nuclear energy can be used for the good of mankind to generate controllable energy, and this may be so. However, the use of nuclear power should have been limited to producing controllable nuclear power not uncontrollable bombs. 

The development of "AI" or Machine Learning is at a completely higher level of utility to nuclear power. "AI" can inveigle itself into nearly all the aspects of human life. Unfortunately, its greatest and most serious  use is seen in the military arena. "AI" is used to perform war games,  and control battlefield strategy and tactics. It can be used to spy on adversaries, decrypt their messages and generate propaganda and false news. Robotic programs can be used to "identify" combatants and terrorists from their 'phone conversations and electronic communications, and then send attack drones to their locations and to kill them automatically. This can now be done by "AI"  acting almost  autonomously, but under the the general direction of its political and military masters. Of course, these autonomous programs can and do make mistakes and often kill innocent civilians and children who happen to get in the way of the explosive power. Politicians seem happy to allow unrestrained "AI" systems to be developed which can attack an adversary from a military or financial point of view. There is thus a race to gain the upper hand.  "AI" systems will need to be able to both attack their adversaries and defend defend themselves against both physical and electronic countermeasures.

We have been lead to believe that "AI" is harmless but just like nuclear power in the wrong hands it could be extremely dangerous. "AI" software and it s agents should have been designed not to harm humans or their activities, and they should have been designed to protest human life and protect human dignity. Unfortunately, the malign genie is out of the lamp with regard to military applications.

We have already seen the ill effects of poorly designed  and tested social media programs which encourage users to harm themselves and others and promote terrorist propaganda. Social media programs can be used by criminals to commit fraud. There are programs which can generate false images. "AI" programs can be used to write essays so that students can cheat. There are many useful aspects of social media but in my opinion these are more than counterbalanced by the malign aspects of the programs. We need to be very careful of the more malign aspects of the technology.

Perhaps, the most disturbing features of "AI" are their ability to attack "AI" operations of competitor states. "AI" could be used to decrypt financial messages thus rendering an enemy state's financial systems broken and useless to the detriment of citizens whose money and bank accounts could disappear. Robotic warfare could be controlled by "AI" to commit genocide and crimes against humanity. A programming mistake could cause a tit for tat robotic war which would be difficult to stop as events could take place too fast for human responses to stop the events.

"AI" in the wrong hands or with the wrong people directing its activities could prove to be a real danger to humanity.

I do not believe that, at the moment, "AI" is sufficiently autonomous to organise the extinction of the human race. However, I believe that humans are either sufficiently malign or stupid  or both to use "AI" as a weapon which could severely harm us.. And ,there in , lies the danger. Watch out.

Chasing a Total Solar Eclipse

 We decided to go and see the August 11th 1999 total solar eclipse in France with our brother-in-law wo is an enthusiastic amateur astronomer. We turned in Reims where our brother was working and which was on the path of totality. Our brother-in-law suggested that we decamp to the nearby countryside complete with his 8 inch Newtonian telescope fitted with a solar filter. We all had solar filter glasses to observe the partial phases of the eclipse. The views through the telescope were amazing during the partial phase of the eclipse as we could clearly see sunspots and other solar features. We were all set for a fabulous view of totality. 

When the sun was about 95 percent occluded by the moon a single cloud suddenly appeared and blotted out the sun. We were all devastated. Other observers jumped in their cars in the vain hope that they could find clear skies at such a late stage- some hopes. We decided to stay put and just appreciate the oncoming darkness in the middle of the day. As the sky got darker and darker we observed birds flying home to roost and farm dogs barking because the were disturbed by such a sudden change from day to night. We looked around and saw the light flickering and shimmering and then all of a sudden we saw the shadow of the moon sweep across the earth and sky at what appeared to be supersonic speed. The shimmering light and the speed of the moon shadow sweep across the sky were unforgettable phenomena which we had never experienced before. It made going to see the total eclipse worthwhile even if we missed the main event.

We were so impressed by the 1999 total eclipse in Europe that we decided to go again. We had to wait until 2020 before the opportunity for us arose again. This was the December 14 eclipse that passed across Chile and Argentina. We booked an eclipse "expedition" where we travelled from Chile across the Andes to see the total eclipse in Patagonia in the rain shadow of the Andes. We paid £4000 a considerable amount but it would be worth it. Unfortunately, Covid19 put the kibosh on our trip we decided not to got not because we feared catching the disease but we did not wan the risk of being trapped in Argentina because flights were severely disrupted at that time, and finding an alternative route home would have been extremely difficult. We were thwarted again   home. Getting our money back from the travel company was very difficult but we eventually succeed in making an insurance claim. We resolved not to use a specialist eclipse company the next time but to make our own way to a total eclipse site.  

We waited to see a total eclipse in Europe and August 12th 2026 gave us the perfect opportunity. We decided on mainland Spain rather than Iceland or the Balearic Islands. The August 12th eclipse was predicted to cross northern Spain. We chose Bilbao as a suitable location for us.  There is always a chance that a cloud could occlude your view of a total eclipse even at the last minute. Bilbao is located on the North West coast of Spain and it offered a sea view of the eclipse or a view from the hills surrounding the town. The total eclipse was predicted to be only 31 seconds in length , but for us that was long enough as we did not intend to photograph the phenomenon, but just watch it. Bilbao has good  communications and this it would be possible to see the eclipse without resorting to public or private transport or the use of specialist tour operators. The length of the eclipse would also be too short to appeal to "professional" eclipse fanciers, astronomers and photographers. if we fsiled to see the eclipse Bilbao had other attractions such as the Guggenheim Museum and excellent local cuisine.

We arrived in good time two days before the event which allowed us time to find the right location which for us was Mount Artxanda which at 250 meters above the city was easy enough to walk up. It afforded a clear view of the Sun which at the time of the eclipse would only be about 10 degrees above the horizon. The hill was accessible by funicular railway, car or by local bus, but we chose to walk up to avoid the queues and crowds. The temperature was about 32 degrees centigrade with a hot blazing sun, the climb was a bit strenuous in this heat,  but it was worth it because of what was about to happen.

The total eclipse was due to start at about 2027 hours and end about 30 seconds later at just after 2028. hours with the partial phase beginning about an hour before. We gave ourselves plenty of time to walk up to the summit, and to find a place were a small crowd of people were sitting with a clear view. We viewed the whole of the partial phase with specialise filtered glasses and solar filtered binoculars. The sense of anticipation was immense. Towards the end of the partial eclipse phase the sky darkend and the temperature dropped. The light took on a light golden colour, a colour and lighting effect that I had never seen before and which was probably unique to observing a total eclipse. 

Towards the end of the partial phase I was observing the Sun constantly, but with eye protection of course. Just before totality I heard a number of people exclaiming "whoa" etc, as they had removed their protective glasses, but I held on a little longer to ensure the safety of my vision. When I saw that the disk of the Moon had completely covered the Sun, removed my protective glasses to observe with the naked eye. I immediately saw , the Bailey's Beads which are a very bright sparkling small globes of white light. They only last a fraction of a second. Then I saw the Diamond stone of the Diamond ring effect suddenly come into view. The Diamond stone is exceptionally bright and is surrounded by a purplish bright light which is the corona of the Sun.  The Corona now surrounded the whole of the jet black disc of the moon which exactly occluded the whole of the Sun except for its outer atmosphere: the Corona. 

The vision of the total eclipse shook me up to my inner core and I felt it was an emotional experience. This rare natural phenomenon was stupendous and almost overwhelming. For me it was the most beautiful natural event I had ever seen.  It surprised me much more than seeing the Andromeda Galaxy with the naked eye from a dark skies site or seeing the rings of Saturn, for the first time, through a telescope.

It seemed to me that my wife and all the other people around me were equally impressed by the sight of the total eclipse which at just 30 seconds in length did not last very long, but it was possible to appreciate it completely with the naked eye up until the appearance of the Baily's Beads at the end of totality when you had to quickly put on your solar glasses to protect your eyes. Paradoxically the event took such a little time but it felt like an eternity.

Scientific discoveries have meant that the total eclipse of the Sun has been entirely predictable. However, to witness the actual event probably inspires the same feelings of awe and overwhelming emotion that the ancients felt when the Sun disappeared momentarily and inexplicably. My wife and I felt that the vision was so perfect and memorable that we do not need to experience another total eclipse. But then again the next total eclipse will cross Spain again on August 2nd 2027 and Cadiz is not that far away. do you want to miss it.

https://solareclipsespain.com/total-solar-eclipse-in-spain-august-2-2027/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRDx2xDR8NA

The madness and cynical insincerity of the UK Reform Party's plans to use the Royal Navy to send back the boat people to France and Belgium

 Reform's policy of using the Royal Navy to forcibly return boat people back to France is both dangerous, unworkable and illegal and quite frankly the result of deranged thinking. It is a disingenuous plot to appeal to a certain section of the British population who  falsely believe that the boat people problem can be resolved by force and deployment of military resources. 

The Royal Navy is opposed to this policy on both moral and legal grounds and rightly so. Royal Naval  personnel are legally and morally bound to save innocent people who are in distress on the sea, not to arrest them or transport them anywhere against their will. Even if the Royal Nay were obliged to sink an enemy ship which was attacking  them or our country, they would still be obliged to rescue survivors and they would do this willingly. The Royal Navy Service men and women are, of course warriors, but they are not barbarians and they willingly adhere to international law and conventions.

If, Royal Navy service personnel were to enter French terrestrial waters to land migrants, without permission, then the French authorities would be within their rights to arrest the crew and confiscate their ship. Why should our personnel be subjected to this risk?

On the political front France could and would probably annul the Le Touquet agreement for juxtaposed border controls at the channel tunnel, the UK would then be expected to vet entrants to the UK on the British side of the channel rather than the French side. This would do nothing to help prevent irregular entries to UK shores.

On the diplomatic front the Reform policy is irresponsible, as their policy is to withdraw from the ECHR and abolish the UK Human Rights Act.  Such a policy would jeopardise the Good Friday agreement and Britain's trade relations with Europe and would also mean that our country would become an International Pariah. Brexit has already damaged our economy and diplomatic relations with our closest neighbours, and leaving the ECHR would ruin them. Leaving the ECHR will complete the Brexit agenda and would then ruin the country.

The problem of irregular crossings can only be resolved by intense co-operation with our neighbours, acting alone will only antagonise our erstwhile neighbours and make the situation worse and even more intolerable. This  dangerous policy of grandstanding and appearing to be tough on immigration just to get votes must be stopped.  The British people, in general, will not be fooled by this and they will vote against it.  

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/08/03/reform-land-troops-on-french-beaches-if-it-refuses-migrants/

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/no-farage-royal-navy-cant-stop-small-boats-this-why-4684472

https://www.france24.com/en/20180117-france-britains-le-touquet-treaty-migration-key-points

Why has Britain changed it's Prime Minister 7 times since the 2016 Brexit referendum

 The United Kingdom was once renowned for being a stable and well run country, but now it is seen as a "basket case" which cannot establish a stable government.  Brexit cannot be blamed directly for this but the referendum and the shenanigans surrounding it can.

Most sensible countries require a two thirds majority to prevent divisive politics prevailing after  a referendum. Some countries go further and require a majority of their constituent states to vote to approve the referendum otherwise no changes are made: Australia is one such country.

The UK decided to have a simple majority to change the constitution, and it decided that national votes did not matter. The voters decided to vote for changes to the constitution by 52% versus 48%, it was too close for comfort.  On another day the result could have been reversed, especially because Britain always conducts votes on a Thursday because of tradition. Retired voters find it easier to get to the polls than workers and students do. Retired voters in the main favoured Brexit, had the vote taken place on a Sunday when younger people, workers and students  would have found it easier to get to the polls, the result could have been different. Is it any wonder that the referendum was so divisive? 

To add to the division England and Wales voted for Brexit and Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, so it was more grist for the division mill.

Many sensible countries have a constitutional court which monitors the behaviour of the politicians and their campaigning, lying and excessive hyperbole can then be ruled out.

The UK government decided that the referendum would only be advisory and that the result could be "overruled" by parliament. The resulting divisiveness could not be clearer, you could not make it up in a fiction.

Watch out Northern Ireland a simple majority vote in a referendum for a united Ireland could cause dangerous division if there was just a small majority for change.

What has all t his to do with Brexit and the constant change of Prime Ministers and the political instability which has resulted?

David Cameron, the Conservative Prime Minister, approved the holding of a referendum but campaigned for the country to remain in the EU. When the remain faction lost he was obliged to resign. 

From then on Britain had a series of Conservative Prime Ministers who could not agree a way forward. The factional in fighting and backstabbing resulted in chaos, and  there was no plan to capitalise economically from Brexit. Some feeble trade deals were concluded with Commonwealth countries but  these deals could nowhere compensate for the trade losses with the EU resulting from Brexit. The economy stagnated. Finally in 2024 the people elected a Labour Prime Minister. The new Prime Minister , Keir Starmer, was an ardent supporter of the Remain campaign. The Labour party was elected because the majority of the population were tired of the economic stagnation, and the broken promises of an improved economy owing to Brexit .Keir Starmer, promised that the UK would reset its relationship with the EU but ruled out joining the EU Single Market and the Customs Union. There was no plan for the future. The electorate were impatient for economic improvement. The majority of the population had also changed their minds as now they wanted to re-join the EU. Keir Starmer was behind the times; Labour Party Members of Parliament decided that after 2 years in power he had to go.

Soon, the UK will get a new Labour Prime Minister, he will need a good plan to reverse the diplomatic, economic and political failure that was Brexit, otherwise our country will stagnate further.

The world has changed a lot since Brexit. The USA is indulging in trade disputes with European  Countries and shows hostility towards NATO. Russia has invaded another European country and is seen as being a big military threat to Western Europe. The UK cannot stand alone and lose its sovereignty and remaining economic , political and diplomatic power. We need allies , we need Europe. We need to join Europe again to improve economic and defence conditions for all our countries.

We do not need to join the political and economic structures of the European Union, but we could negotiate re-joining the Single Market and the Customs Union, and we should negotiate a common defence and foreign affairs  treaty. There is still some goodwill left towards the UK, and it would probably be possible to negotiate a say on how the single market is run and some representation at the European Court. of Justice. The UK has a lot to offer in a close association with the EU, especially  in the field of defence and security. All of this would be to our mutual benefit.

The new Labour Prime Minister needs a good plan for Brexit and the way forward with the EU. Let's try to reverse the stagnation and develop an optimistic future for our country.

If you don't want a political crisis then don't run the country by referendum

 The 2016 referendum  which questioned the British public whether we should leave the European Union or remain has left a divisive and toxic body political, and the crisis it has created is still playing out. The decision to leave the EU was made without any prior and  independent critical examination  of the cost benefits of Brexit or consideration of the consequences. There was no plan about what to do after Brexit, and how to exploit any advantage that Brexit could confer - a recipe for failure, division and disaster.

It is a severe mistake to change the constitution on the basis of a simply majority of the votes in a referendum. Britain decided to leave the EU on the basis of a simple majority. 52.89 %, of registered voters,  voted to Leave and 48.11%, of registered voters, voted to remain but 27.79%, of registered voters, chose to abstain.. If everyone had voted or if the referendum had been held on another day then the result could have been different.  The referendum also gave liars and political chancers the opportunity to disrupt the British  un- written constitution to gain political power for themselves. Brexit has turned out to be an abject failure which after 5 years has meant that our country is worse off economically, politically, socially, financially and diplomatically.

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU but England and Wales voted to leave, further division which could lead to the United Kingdom to breaking up with all the problems that would entail. The political divisions have meant that the realm has been unable to capitalise on any potential economic benefit from Brexit, and in fact our international trading position has got worse.

Most sensible countries demand a 2/3  majority before changing the constitution either in a referendum or a in parliamentary vote to avoid division. Did our parliamentarians show any sense when deciding upon the terms of the referendum?

The supposed trade benefits of becoming closer to the US did not materialise, in fact the tariff regime has got worse.  Britain has concluded some trade agreements with  nations such as Canada and India but these agreements were hardly better than what we had before Brexit. Britain has missed out on the EU -Mercosur Agreement which is worth billions in mutual trade. 

From a political point of view it allowed the Brexiteer wing of the Conservative party to undermine Theresa May's premiership. May was trying to alleviate the detrimental effects of Brexit by trying to keep Britain in the Single Market, but eventually she was deposed. The Brexit wing of the party then set about removing some of the more thoughtful and progressive MP's from their constituencies. The Conservative party then lost its One Nation credentials. 

The new Conservative Prime Minister then embarrassed the Queen, as head of state, by advising her to illegally prorogue parliament for paarty political advantage. The Queen then had to suffer the indignity of her Supreme Court overriding her illegal decision.

The political division did not stop there: parliament was asked what sort of Brexit they wanted, but neither the Labour Party nor the Conservative party could agree, MP's were given the opportunity to vote for leaving the EU but stay in the Single Market or the Customs union, but they could not raise enough votes for either option. The result was a hard-line and unmitigated Brexit. The political divisions are many and their toxicity still plagues our body politic.

From a social point of point, Brexit has meant that young people can no longer up sticks and work in the EU for a short period or travel around freely to gain experience and find marriage partners and bring their partners back to Britain with ease. British business men can no longer travel so freely to the EU  or set up business there or become directors of European companies. The British economic model has relied upon imported labour. The EU work force was young and mobile and they brought an entrepreneurial spirit with them. EU youngsters can no longer travel freely to the UK. The dreams of many European youngsters have been foiled.

Part of the reason why so many voters voted for Brexit was their worry about immigration. But without immigration and the migration of workers some sections of the British economy would be severely affected. When the Europeans stopped coming or went home because they felt un-welcome, we had to replace them with workers from South East Asia and East Asia.  These migrants were the sort of people people that some xenophobic Brexiteers  really didn't want in our country and what is more they had to pay to come here. And they wanted to bring their families with them , this has resulted in the immigration figures soaring, and because of the xenophobia, governments have become more and more restrictive towards these new residents . This has meant that our society just appears to be mean and nasty and exploitative towards our migrant neighbours. This is a sad state of affairs.

Financially, we are much worse off; the pound has plunged in value leading to food and consumer goods inflation. Our GDP has lost ground meaning that tax income has declined and  government bond yields have risen dramatically.  Britain is now paying billions more in financing government debt ; billions which could contribute to the improvement of social care and the NHS, and billions more which could be spent on defence.  The economic and financial problems caused by Brexit have meant that no government despite its promises has much room for manoeuvre. The current political division could lead to an economic and financial crisis just like we had in the 1970's when Britain had to be bailed out by the IMF. Who will bail us out now? The US, China or India? I don't think so . The EU would have to bail us out, but they will exact a price.

Diplomatically, Britain has been weakened by Brexit and it no longer has much strength to exercise its sovereignty as witnessed by the Chagos islands fiasco. Britain is legally obliged to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sovereignty. One minute the US government approved of the British return of the Chagos islands, but the next minute the US objected, Britain just had to do what it was told; so much for Britain  being stronger out of Europe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqg3nqynlo

The present Labour government knows that Brexit was a mistake, but now it is too weak to challenge the liars and the chancers who  are still dictating the policy towards Brexit. We need a return to some sort of political sanity and stability and strength of purpose.

What lessons have I  learnt from this. Don't change the constitution in a referendum without a two thirds majority.  In a multi-nation state gain the consent of all the constituent nations for complex constitutional change as well. Before you decide to have a référendum critically examine the costs and benefits and the consequences and have a plan - Failure is easy; success requires hard work, intelligence and above all integrity.

https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-leadership-crisis-survival-doubt-kings-speech-firebreak/

Britain getting closer to European Union

 I am fully in support of Britain becoming closer to EU. It his clear that Brexit has been a complete flop; none of the promises that were made by the Brexiteers, have been met. With especial regard to sovereignty . the US administration is trampling all over us. it is impugning our sovereignty over  the Chagos islands and telling us what to do.  The US administration is insulting our Prime Minister and our Armed Forces. We have assisted the the US mostly, without question, when it has indulged in legal military action, and we shall do so in the future but we deserve some credit and respect.

It is my opinion that a reset with the EU does not go far enough , we really need to at least re-join the Single Market first and then the Customs union to protect our economy, and then if it is within our national interest  to become full members of the EU again. This will take a long time but in the end it will be worth it. Britain also needs to unite with the EU both diplomatically and militarily and should forge a joint foreign policy with the EU to protect our common interests. The US is no longer prepared to finance our defence and why should they?  We need a strong economy to spend more on defence and to make a strong contribution to European unity.   

The remain in the EU campaign used to the slogan "Britain Stronger in Europe": we have made a big mistake as Britain was in fact actually stronger in Europe,  but we had to become poorer and be treated to the indignity of being walked all over by the US  to find out. It is time for British politicians to wise up and face the reality "Britain is Stronger in Europe".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c937jkvp3w8o

Hatred and violence beget further hatred and violence

 The current war in the Middle East is a tragic consequence of the dangerous attitude that disputes between nations can only be settled by violence. Thousands of innocent people in Israel, Lebanon, and Iran have been killed as a result of both hatred and violence. Tens of thousands of innocent people have been killed in Palestine and Gaza.

The wars are being organised by secular and religious leaders who are interested only in hatred and violence and domination of their political opponents. Once again the human race is descending into a moral abyss.

The war in the Middle East is spreading in asymmetric form to Western societies with innocent Jewish and Muslim communities being targeted by hate-filled  criminals and terrorists. 

It is time for the leaders of all the combatants in the region to cease the violence and hatred. It  is time to negotiate with their opponents to agree a settlement and a peace treaty.

The recent Northern Ireland civil war between the republican and loyalist communities sets an example of what can be achieved when political leaders finally decide that hatred, violence and vengeance is futile. The governments of the UK  and the Republic of Ireland lead the way to a reduction of the violence and encouraged the leaders of the civil war to negotiate. A peace treaty was agreed, and the UK , Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland all benefitted form the peace.

It is time for  a negotiated settlement to achieve peace in the Middle East . Which country will start to lead the way to peace?