A place where sceptics can exchange their views

Monday, 22 March 2021

Yaboo Yaboo Yaboo - The Covid 19 vaccine merry-go-round

 Yaboo, "we have got more Covid19 vaccines than you". Yaboo, "no you haven't". Yaboo "we are better than you". Yaboo "no you're not".


Yaboo, "it's time to stop this nonsense, the virus does not care and it will kill you or make you very sick, if all this Yaboo is not stopped".

Monday, 8 March 2021

Catch22 Immigrant

Trevor Donald is the victim of the most egregious bureaucracy related to the Windrush scandal. He came to Britain at the age of 11 in 1963 as part of the Windrush generation. It appears that his arrival and right to be a resident of the UK had never been documented. When he went to Jamaica in 2010 to attend his mother's funeral he had to travel on emergency documents, but he was given assurance that he would  be allowed to return to the UK to take up his residence again.  Upon trying to return home later in 2010 ,  he was barred from entry and remained stranded in Jamaica for 9 years.  In 2019 he was finally allowed to return home as part of the Windrush correction scheme, but he has been denied the immediate granting of British Citizenship because he had not been in the country for 5 years. This is an insult and Mr Donald has been treated with contempt as part of a "Catch 22" not so merry go round. 

Before, he went to Jamaica  in 2020 he was already a British citizen albeit an undocumented one. He had lived in the country for 43 years since childhood, it was his right to be British. He should have been granted citizenship in 2010 and been given a passport immediately. The same should have been the case when he returned form his illegal exile in 2019.

We now live in a world where personal testimony seems to count for nothing, there were probably innumerable British citizens who could have vouched for Mr Donald and confirmed that he was living in the UK legally , doctors' and dentists' records could have been checked etc. There is no need for endless bureaucracy and computer records for proof of who you are.

The Crown grants people citizenship upon the recommendation of the Home Office. Under international law no-one should be allowed to be a stateless citizen, but  Mr Donald was forced to be a stateless by British bureaucracy, and he still is. The Home Secretary should recommend, to the monarch, that Mr Donald is granted British Citizenship and a passport immediately. The Queen would probably be pleased to do so in order to right an injustice.



Monday, 8 February 2021

Get your vaccine as soon as it is offered

 I had my Astra Zeneca vaccine last Saturday. The jab was painless and 48 hours later I have not felt any side effects. My decision to have the vaccine was not based upon the hubristic recommendations of the government but from my own research of the scientific evidence and the my own weighing up of the risks versus benefits by a personal and community consideration.

The scientific evidence  regarding the efficacy of the Astra Zenaca's vaccine for people aged 65 and over is weak. The vaccine company did not test a sufficient number of older people in their randomised trials to confirm that the vaccine works for older people. However, there is no proof that it does not work, for the same reason. The vaccine works for younger people and this has been proven , my own assessment is that it will therefore work for older people and even if it does not give full protection it will probably lessen the impact of catching the disease. 

The vaccine has also been shown to lessen the risk of younger infected people passing the virus own and I assess that this will be true for older people.

I had nothing to lose by having the vaccine and a lot to gain and so did the community in general, the choice for me was simple and obvious. 

The US FDA has asked Astra Zeneca to run further trials to prove that the vaccine works for the over 65s before they approve its use. Again, I expect  that the vaccine will probably be given approval. If it is proven not to work in the over 65s then, so what?  No doubt I will be given a vaccine that does.

There is some doubt that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not totally effective against the South African variant but this has not been proven and I expect that the vaccine will at least provide some protection to prevent hospitalisations.

None of the vaccines have been definitely proven to inhibit  transmission of the virus from  an asymptomatic individual to another person. We will all have to watch our step to prevent this from happening. My wife has not been vaccinated yet so I won't be taking any chances with her life; so social distancing is the watchword for me until everyone has been vaccinated and infections can be limited to 1,000 per day, as was wisely recommended by a former Health Secretary. It looks as though a vaccination programme alone cannot suppress this dangerous virus on its own until there an efficient test , track and isolation system is working. And we have not got there yet. 

Many more than 100,000 have died and  many others have been left with long covid. Our economy has also been ruined by the poor performance of the government in mitigating the effects of the virus. Thousands more could die if the government  ignores the scientific advice  to allow another peak. The economy is in danger of being wrecked by coming out of the lockdown too soon again and allowing another peak followed by emergency measures.

The vast majority of the British people are doing the right thing to follow the scientific advice to socially distance themselves and have a vaccine. The government must by wise too and ensure that safety is put first.

Friday, 29 January 2021

Vaccine Nationalism

 It had to happen. Vaccine Nationalism has broken out. Your country is depriving my country of our vaccine. Our experts are better than your experts when we chose to listen to them. Our intellectual property won't be shared unless you pay us a lot of money. Our vaccine is better than your vaccine because it was produced in our country not yours. 

The facts of the matter are that third world countries are being deprived of the vaccine because they cannot afford to pay for the vaccine and they are being deprived of the ability to vaccinate their populations because they cannot afford the infrastructure. All countries are being equally nationalistic in their attitude.

If you are a resident  of a rich country you will benefit from being on the top of the list. You will have been lucky so don't accuse other countries about being nationalistic  because that will be complete hypocrisy. I haven't noticed anyone from a rich country foregoing access to the vaccine to allow someone from a third world country to be allowed to get priority. This includes me and my friends some of whom claim that the Oxford vaccine is better than the Pfizer one because it is British: I hate to remind them that this is bunkum.

The Covid 19 virus does not have a nationality neither does the vaccine. The virus and the vaccine are biochemical reagents which react with the human organism  to produce a disease response, in the case of the virus, or a prophylactic response, in the case of the vaccine. The virus and the vaccine have no thoughts or intentions they are neither enemies or allies. The virus is a result of natural evolution; the vaccine is the result of human design and ingenuity. The virus will evolve by natural selection to become more contagious or virulent or both. The vaccine will have to be changed by human design to counteract the evolution of the virus.

There really should be no such thing as " intellectual property" no one can work alone to produce a new theory or blueprint for a new vaccine. All intellectual activity is built upon the work of others including our forefathers and mothers.

It would have been impossible for Einstein to have developed his theory of relativity if he had lived a thousand years ago. Einstein recognised this which is why he shared all his scientific knowledge and ideas .

Vaccine technology should be shared as it not genuinely the "intellectual property" of an individual or a company. The product of vaccine technology should be shared and distributed throughout the world on an equitable basis without one nation childishly claiming priority. National governments should regulate the pharmaceutical industries to achieve this whilst giving fair reward to the companies and individuals involved.

 Viruses do not respect national boundaries. An individual can only be protected when everyone is protected. Selfishness is not the answer to make provision for global health and immunity. 


 


Monday, 25 January 2021

Why?

 The UK is approaching 100,000 deaths from its C19 epidemic, and some commentators already claim that the UK already has a death of much more than 100,000 depending on how you count the casualties. The UK has a population of around 66 million.

South Korea has a population of just over 51 million. its death count from C19 is less than 1,400.

The British people should ask themselves why South Korea was able to control its epidemic so much more efficiently than the UK and other Western states for that matter. They should ask themselves why South Korea is now in a position to vaccinate its population according to WHO standards and not rush into just vaccinating each patient once and then waiting for a long period before the second vaccine is given. No country can rely upon vaccination programmes alone to solve the C19 problem; there must be effective test, track and isolation systems in place, as has been made clear by the WHO.

Why has South Korea been so much better than the UK. Is it because  the South Korean scientific and health experts are so much better than British ones?  Did the South Korean government heed the advice of its experts?Did the British government ignore the advice of its experts? Did the British government badly organise test, track and isolate systems.

The British now have one of the worst death rates from C19 in the world. We are approaching a brutal and gruesome total. The British people deserve to know what is going wrong and what went wrong and why, and how it can be fixed. They should then be able to vote accordingly.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Friday, 15 January 2021

British Influence

 It is my opinion that the people who will feel the worse effects of Brexit will be British diplomats and senior politicians. The USA used the UK as a bridge with which to influence the EU. This connexion is now gone. The Republic of Ireland will now take Britain's place as the anglophone intermediary between the US and the EU. This will be to the chagrin of British diplomats whose voice will no longer be heard as strongly in the corridors of power.

Over the next 30 or so years the economic powers of the US, Germany, France and the UK will more than likely decline. China, India  and Russia will more than likely be on the rise. The USA and the Western European states share so many values that they will seek to become closer both politically and economically to offset the military and economic influence of China, Russia and India. The US and the  EU will probably ask Japan to join them. Britain will be forced by circumstances to follow suite  but because it is no longer a member of the EU Council, its influence will be considerably diminished. The USA will show decreasing reliance on the UK. Britain will be shut out from the new bodies which will seek to dominate world politics and economic activity. Britain will suffer the humiliation of the Republic of Ireland and other small European states having more influence. If Scotland leaves the UK to join the EU then it too will become more influential than what's left of the UK. Scotland will become another anglophone link to the EU for the US.

Britain will have to rely much more on the Entente Cordiale with France to retain some sort of influence in Europe. Britain will not have the power to upset France too much. Britain will feel left out; so the political elite will be determined to find ways to get back into to Europe and persuade its citizens to do so. Britain will then have to persuade the EU to let it rejoin the EU council of ministers in some sort of way. Britain will  be confronted by the "real politik" of assuming its place in the European family of nations by rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union or even the EU itself.

Britain's economic future relies upon  a strategic alliance with the EU, and to be cut off from European decision making will be more damaging than leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union - in the long run. The politicians who organised Brexit know this, and if they cannot find a way of achieving a strong connexion with the EU,the US and Japan, to protect Britain's economic, political, diplomatic and military future, then they will be replaced by an increasingly worried public. British politicians will lament their lack of power and influence and so will the nation. The sooner British politicians set about repairing the humiliation, and the political and diplomatic damage of Brexit the better.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html#keyprojections

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10-economies-2030/

Friday, 8 January 2021

The storming of the Capitol

 In some respects, for me, the storming of the US Capitol and the insurrection was even more disturbing than the 9/11 attacks. The attacks of 9/11 were committed by foreigners with the terrible murder of 3,000 American and International citizens. The death toll of the January 6th was much lower but the attack was instigated by American citizens who were trying to overthrow democracy. Ironically they were not trying to rebel against a tyrant but they were rebelling against a democratically elected Congress which defends their liberty and freedom of speech. They were also rebelling against a fairly elected President elect who will also defend their liberty and freedom of speech. Violence against the US Congress has rightly been condemned, there can be no excuse. There can be no excuse for inciting a mob to overthrow democracy and this is as grave a crime in my eyes as actually doing these deeds.

It seems that being rational is now a minority pursuit. It is quite possible that the insurrection is not over; so the transition of power to the new President must be protected at all costs. From now on leaders of other countries especially the US's allies must set aside political differences and give the new US President all the international   support that he needs to guarantee liberty and democracy for all of us.

During my working life I have worked for many great US companies and I have met hundreds of American citizens and debated political issues with them in my spare time. Democrat or Republican most of them were very good people who were friendly towards me. They do not deserve to see the  horror of what happened to their country on 6th of January 2021 - it was a terrible beginning to their New Year.