Get your vaccine as soon as it is offered

 I had my Astra Zeneca vaccine last Saturday. The jab was painless and 48 hours later I have not felt any side effects. My decision to have the vaccine was not based upon the hubristic recommendations of the government but from my own research of the scientific evidence and the my own weighing up of the risks versus benefits by a personal and community consideration.

The scientific evidence  regarding the efficacy of the Astra Zenaca's vaccine for people aged 65 and over is weak. The vaccine company did not test a sufficient number of older people in their randomised trials to confirm that the vaccine works for older people. However, there is no proof that it does not work, for the same reason. The vaccine works for younger people and this has been proven , my own assessment is that it will therefore work for older people and even if it does not give full protection it will probably lessen the impact of catching the disease. 

The vaccine has also been shown to lessen the risk of younger infected people passing the virus own and I assess that this will be true for older people.

I had nothing to lose by having the vaccine and a lot to gain and so did the community in general, the choice for me was simple and obvious. 

The US FDA has asked Astra Zeneca to run further trials to prove that the vaccine works for the over 65s before they approve its use. Again, I expect  that the vaccine will probably be given approval. If it is proven not to work in the over 65s then, so what?  No doubt I will be given a vaccine that does.

There is some doubt that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not totally effective against the South African variant but this has not been proven and I expect that the vaccine will at least provide some protection to prevent hospitalisations.

None of the vaccines have been definitely proven to inhibit  transmission of the virus from  an asymptomatic individual to another person. We will all have to watch our step to prevent this from happening. My wife has not been vaccinated yet so I won't be taking any chances with her life; so social distancing is the watchword for me until everyone has been vaccinated and infections can be limited to 1,000 per day, as was wisely recommended by a former Health Secretary. It looks as though a vaccination programme alone cannot suppress this dangerous virus on its own until there an efficient test , track and isolation system is working. And we have not got there yet. 

Many more than 100,000 have died and  many others have been left with long covid. Our economy has also been ruined by the poor performance of the government in mitigating the effects of the virus. Thousands more could die if the government  ignores the scientific advice  to allow another peak. The economy is in danger of being wrecked by coming out of the lockdown too soon again and allowing another peak followed by emergency measures.

The vast majority of the British people are doing the right thing to follow the scientific advice to socially distance themselves and have a vaccine. The government must by wise too and ensure that safety is put first.

Vaccine Nationalism

 It had to happen. Vaccine Nationalism has broken out. Your country is depriving my country of our vaccine. Our experts are better than your experts when we chose to listen to them. Our intellectual property won't be shared unless you pay us a lot of money. Our vaccine is better than your vaccine because it was produced in our country not yours. 

The facts of the matter are that third world countries are being deprived of the vaccine because they cannot afford to pay for the vaccine and they are being deprived of the ability to vaccinate their populations because they cannot afford the infrastructure. All countries are being equally nationalistic in their attitude.

If you are a resident  of a rich country you will benefit from being on the top of the list. You will have been lucky so don't accuse other countries about being nationalistic  because that will be complete hypocrisy. I haven't noticed anyone from a rich country foregoing access to the vaccine to allow someone from a third world country to be allowed to get priority. This includes me and my friends some of whom claim that the Oxford vaccine is better than the Pfizer one because it is British: I hate to remind them that this is bunkum.

The Covid 19 virus does not have a nationality neither does the vaccine. The virus and the vaccine are biochemical reagents which react with the human organism  to produce a disease response, in the case of the virus, or a prophylactic response, in the case of the vaccine. The virus and the vaccine have no thoughts or intentions they are neither enemies or allies. The virus is a result of natural evolution; the vaccine is the result of human design and ingenuity. The virus will evolve by natural selection to become more contagious or virulent or both. The vaccine will have to be changed by human design to counteract the evolution of the virus.

There really should be no such thing as " intellectual property" no one can work alone to produce a new theory or blueprint for a new vaccine. All intellectual activity is built upon the work of others including our forefathers and mothers.

It would have been impossible for Einstein to have developed his theory of relativity if he had lived a thousand years ago. Einstein recognised this which is why he shared all his scientific knowledge and ideas .

Vaccine technology should be shared as it not genuinely the "intellectual property" of an individual or a company. The product of vaccine technology should be shared and distributed throughout the world on an equitable basis without one nation childishly claiming priority. National governments should regulate the pharmaceutical industries to achieve this whilst giving fair reward to the companies and individuals involved.

 Viruses do not respect national boundaries. An individual can only be protected when everyone is protected. Selfishness is not the answer to make provision for global health and immunity. 

 

Why?

 The UK is approaching 100,000 deaths from its C19 epidemic, and some commentators already claim that the UK already has a death of much more than 100,000 depending on how you count the casualties. The UK has a population of around 66 million.

South Korea has a population of just over 51 million. its death count from C19 is less than 1,400.

The British people should ask themselves why South Korea was able to control its epidemic so much more efficiently than the UK and other Western states for that matter. They should ask themselves why South Korea is now in a position to vaccinate its population according to WHO standards and not rush into just vaccinating each patient once and then waiting for a long period before the second vaccine is given. No country can rely upon vaccination programmes alone to solve the C19 problem; there must be effective test, track and isolation systems in place, as has been made clear by the WHO.

Why has South Korea been so much better than the UK. Is it because  the South Korean scientific and health experts are so much better than British ones?  Did the South Korean government heed the advice of its experts?Did the British government ignore the advice of its experts? Did the British government badly organise test, track and isolate systems.

The British now have one of the worst death rates from C19 in the world. We are approaching a brutal and gruesome total. The British people deserve to know what is going wrong and what went wrong and why, and how it can be fixed. They should then be able to vote accordingly.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

British Influence

 It is my opinion that the people who will feel the worse effects of Brexit will be British diplomats and senior politicians. The USA used the UK as a bridge with which to influence the EU. This connexion is now gone. The Republic of Ireland will now take Britain's place as the anglophone intermediary between the US and the EU. This will be to the chagrin of British diplomats whose voice will no longer be heard as strongly in the corridors of power.

Over the next 30 or so years the economic powers of the US, Germany, France and the UK will more than likely decline. China, India  and Russia will more than likely be on the rise. The USA and the Western European states share so many values that they will seek to become closer both politically and economically to offset the military and economic influence of China, Russia and India. The US and the  EU will probably ask Japan to join them. Britain will be forced by circumstances to follow suite  but because it is no longer a member of the EU Council, its influence will be considerably diminished. The USA will show decreasing reliance on the UK. Britain will be shut out from the new bodies which will seek to dominate world politics and economic activity. Britain will suffer the humiliation of the Republic of Ireland and other small European states having more influence. If Scotland leaves the UK to join the EU then it too will become more influential than what's left of the UK. Scotland will become another anglophone link to the EU for the US.

Britain will have to rely much more on the Entente Cordiale with France to retain some sort of influence in Europe. Britain will not have the power to upset France too much. Britain will feel left out; so the political elite will be determined to find ways to get back into to Europe and persuade its citizens to do so. Britain will then have to persuade the EU to let it rejoin the EU council of ministers in some sort of way. Britain will  be confronted by the "real politik" of assuming its place in the European family of nations by rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union or even the EU itself.

Britain's economic future relies upon  a strategic alliance with the EU, and to be cut off from European decision making will be more damaging than leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union - in the long run. The politicians who organised Brexit know this, and if they cannot find a way of achieving a strong connexion with the EU,the US and Japan, to protect Britain's economic, political, diplomatic and military future, then they will be replaced by an increasingly worried public. British politicians will lament their lack of power and influence and so will the nation. The sooner British politicians set about repairing the humiliation, and the political and diplomatic damage of Brexit the better.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html#keyprojections

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10-economies-2030/

The storming of the Capitol

 In some respects, for me, the storming of the US Capitol and the insurrection was even more disturbing than the 9/11 attacks. The attacks of 9/11 were committed by foreigners with the terrible murder of 3,000 American and International citizens. The death toll of the January 6th was much lower but the attack was instigated by American citizens who were trying to overthrow democracy. Ironically they were not trying to rebel against a tyrant but they were rebelling against a democratically elected Congress which defends their liberty and freedom of speech. They were also rebelling against a fairly elected President elect who will also defend their liberty and freedom of speech. Violence against the US Congress has rightly been condemned, there can be no excuse. There can be no excuse for inciting a mob to overthrow democracy and this is as grave a crime in my eyes as actually doing these deeds.

It seems that being rational is now a minority pursuit. It is quite possible that the insurrection is not over; so the transition of power to the new President must be protected at all costs. From now on leaders of other countries especially the US's allies must set aside political differences and give the new US President all the international   support that he needs to guarantee liberty and democracy for all of us.

During my working life I have worked for many great US companies and I have met hundreds of American citizens and debated political issues with them in my spare time. Democrat or Republican most of them were very good people who were friendly towards me. They do not deserve to see the  horror of what happened to their country on 6th of January 2021 - it was a terrible beginning to their New Year.

Fishermen let down by Brexit deal - you just have to suck it up

It seems that a majority of fishermen voted for Brexit in the belief that they would be freed from the constraints of the EU common fisheries policy. Britain would become a sovereign coastal state which would be free to do as it liked and british fishermen would be able to obtain the lion's share of fish caught in British coastal waters.  It now seems that they feel they have been sold down the river.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/26/deal-fishing-industry-boris-johnson-betrayal-eu-demands

You were warned what would happen by the remain campaign and it is no use complaining if you voted for Brexit. Sovereignty does not work the way you wish it to. Every country in the world including the US has to compromise on sovereignty when they join organisations such as NATO, The WTO and the UN. The US is obliged to send its daughters and sons into death or danger to protect Latvia if it is attacked. The UK is a member of NATO and must do the same. The UK and the US pool their sovereignty for the greater good. Brexiters have never really understood this. They have thought ideologically. They have decided to leave the EU simply because they do not like their fellow Europeans from having any say in British affairs. They also voted to leave the EU because they resented Romanian  and Bulgarians being allowed to come to Britain "freely" to pick strawberries.

The Fishermen, are now confronted with the "realpolitik" of international relations as all their hopes and dreams have been dashed.To get a poor trade deal for the rest of the UK their dreams had to be sacrificed, and they have probably ended up in a worse position than before we left the EU. Their fellow citizens by a small majority voted for this.

Britain cannot afford to be totally sovereign and soon we will hear other complaints. British companies will now be forced to fill in mountains of paperwork to export to the EU and this will increase the price of their products on the EU market - our biggest one. There will be delays to exports and this will increase prices. Britain will become a less attractive place to invest in for institutional investors. Young people won't be able to get temporary jobs in Europe. EU students will be reluctant to come to British universities because of visa requirements and extra costs  and this will affect revenues. There will be queues at the borders for British people to travel to Europe. British businessmen and women will be denied seats on the boards of EU companies unless they have a visa. The problems will be endless.

There will be an EU border down the Irish Sea. Would the US allow an EU border between New York and New Jersey states? A weakened Britain has no choice but to accept the humiliation of giving away its sovereignty. The EU and the US forced us to do this to ensure peace in Ireland. The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement and Trade Deals offered you a Turbot  but you got a Sand Eel  which is about to go rotten. Don't complain if you voted for it, this is the price you pay for an imaginary absolute sovereignty.

C19 Epidemic

 How could a country get into such a mess over the C19 epidemic? The relaxation of the social distancing rules for Christmas is bordering on the irresponsible. In London, where I live, the cases of C19 are rising sharply despite the latest lockdown. The rise in infections is being driven by the schools not being able to ensure social distancing amongst the pupils. We have been warned by the WHO that wearing masks is insufficient to prevent the spread of the virus. This is something that I worked out for myself months ago. To curb infections everyone must adopt distancing measures of at least one meter and practice hand hygiene as well as wearing masks in confined spaces. Clearly this is not working in schools.

The WHO also recommends targeted testing and the  isolation of anyone who has contracted the virus. Clearly this is not working despite billions of pounds being spent on the national system. Test and isolation is best left to the local public health authorities but they have been starved of funds and resources. 

The best course of action to control the virus would have been to lock down the nation whilst the pupils were off school. With a bit of imagination lonely or old people could have been catered for without risking their health or anyone else's.

The WHO is not recommending a Christmas free for all for good reason.

As I have said before, we have become a decadent society where excellence hardly exists. Let's hope most people ignore the Christmas relaxation of social distancing rules. The the nation's health and its economy will then be given a chance to recover. Recovery will require careful thought, planning and self control and not sudden changes of mind, otherwise we shall drift from one lockdown to another and thousands more will die unnecessarily and thousands more businesses will go broke. This is not a good prospect for our nation. The best advice is stay at home but I fear vast numbers will not follow it.