The Crown

I saw a clip of this TV series production on breakfast television. It confirmed that I was correct to assume that I was not missing anything that was important and that I am right not watch new episodes. I am not interested in the factual or fictional private lives of the monarchy or anyone else for that matter as long as they do not affect the political or constitutional life of the state.

I wholeheartedly agree with Simon Jenkins' view  in the Guardian, that fake history is corrosive.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/16/the-crown-fake-history-news-tv-series-royal-family-artistic-licence

The British state can be likened to a "Crowned Republic" where the monarch has little or no power or means to influence or alter political or constitutional events. The monarch's prerogative powers have all been delegated to the Prime Minister. If political and policy mistakes are made it is the fault of the government not the monarchy. 

There is nothing wrong with Prince Charles expressing his views about architecture or climate change; he is entitled to do this. Most of his views have been ignored anyway perhaps to our detriment. 

He should be left alone to enjoy what remains of his private life.  There is really no need to invent fiction and false history just to titillate the public to make money.

US despair about the their democracy

 Many millions of American citizens must be in despair about the state of politics and democracy in the US after seeing the president accusing some of the state administrations of election fraud. He even cited republican states of indulging in this. American citizens can  make up their own minds about this. Regrettably, many citizens still find this behaviour acceptable.

There is no need for despair for the future if the past is anything to go by. Let's look at some of the the great politicians that the US has produced in the past:  George Washington. Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King, John F Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, FDR, Barack Obama,  Michelle Obama and General Eisenhower to name but a few.

Women are under-represented in the pantheon of  US leaders but could Kamala Harris soon be included? Will Joe Biden be able to live up to the reputation that he was awarded the greatest number of votes, for the presidency, by the American public?

The US has had a great numbers of political heroes , but none so great the as the volunteers who counted the votes without fear or favour. They did this despite the threats of violence and the false accusations of graft: they all deserve national recognition, and history will recognise their valiant efforts.

Test and Trace Chaos

 The British national track and trace programme for Covid 19 is failing big time. They are using Excel spreadsheets to support their database. The most junior computer programmer knows that you do not use a spreadsheet program to support a national database which in time will contain millions of records.  When I used to run projects I banned the use of spreadsheets. People are tempted to use them for everything including project plans. You can fill in the boxes with text and colour the boxes in:  they look pretty but most of the time they contain useless information. Spreadsheets are perfect for accountants, bookkeepers and scientists analysing figures. Only my project officer, who prepared the budgets, was allowed to use a spreadsheet. If you need to use boxes in your reports then you can use Word. 

If the Test and Trace system continues to abuse the Excel spreadsheet program then the project will  continue to fail.

In 1962 we had an outbreak of Smallpox in Great Britain; there was a vaccine but it was in very short supply. Local public health authorities held the epidemic at bay by using an effective test and trace system using pen and paper - there were no PC's or Computer Tablets and Smart 'phones available.The contacts of those who caught the disease were traced and isolated in hospitals and all by manual methods.  They had no choice for in the 1962 epidemic there was a 30% death rate. They saved thousands of people with simple measures until vaccine supplies came up to speed. Local public health did not need a £10 billion system, which has failed, they used pen and paper and boots on the ground. We could learn something from those days but we are probably too decadent and arrogant.

Until a vaccine comes along washing your hands and wearing a mask will not provide adequate protection, the Covid virus will still spread - this is obvious. The only measures that will keep the virus at bay is for everyone to keep their distance and to isolate the infected and their contacts. We need a test and trace system that works and urgently. 

We need to control this virus and get our economy working again. We have no choice; get the pencil and paper out and get the boots on the ground. Stop the pretence that anything else will work well enough to stop the virus in its tracks.

And he wasn't wearing a mask

 No one deserves to suffer from a Covid 19 infection no matter what you think of them and if they are a politician whatever their policies are. The world's press and media are now going into to overdrive to analyse President Trump's activities before and after he was tested positive for the virus. They are also analysing who spread it to him and who he might have spread it to. The fact is no one knows for sure and never will. His contacts must all be identified now and tested and be quarantined.

Many people are now pointing the finger at people not wearing masks in the White House.  It's as if wearing a mask is the sole guarantee that you will not catch Covid 19 or spread it. There is no absolute proof of this.

There have been few studies conducted in the field which prove or disprove the efficacy of wearing a mask. Randomised Controlled Trials are not really feasible and would  possibly be unethical if  conducted on an unsuspecting public. We can only rely upon observations or computer modelling to make a judgement. My own view is that even though I wear a mask when required I doubt that it affords much protection to myself or others: to rely upon masks alone to counteract infection rates would be irresponsible.

My problem from observations is that most people do not wear masks  correctly. They do not wash their hands before putting them on or removing them. They wave them around and some people take them off and place them on the table or similar in front of them. They do not put the mask in a sealed container after use. I even watched a child wipe his mask on the arm rests of a tube train without his mother warning him not to do so. It is also apparent that many people do not change their masks frequently. Incorrect use of a mask probably negates their effectiveness in reducing the spread of droplets. Masks are possibly becoming fomites that help spread infection. We must all be more careful.

Likewise, washing your hands may help to reduce the spread of the virus and protect everyone. I wash my hands assiduously but I am not confident that this measure alone would stop me either catching the virus or spreading it. We all touch our faces unconsciously and often several times a minute. Who washes their hands every time after touching their nose our mouth even if they are conscious of the habit?

A recent modelling exercise conducted by a super computer in Japan concluded that visors were almost useless at protecting wearers from Covid 19 infection or stop the spread of the virus. This study was not conducted in the field so it is quite possible that in the real world a visor does confer some protection and if it makes the wearer more confident to go out then so much the better.

It seems to me that the best way to stop the spread of the virus and  help to prevent yourself from catching it, is social distance and adequate ventilation in rooms where you meet people. Also, it is probably wise to reduce your contacts with people when the infection rates go up. In my local area the infection rate has risen to a level where my wife and I are considering not going to restaurants as frequently and reducing our contacts with friends and family - the infection rate is now just over 20 cases per 100,000 people. The best way do reduce infections when there is a lack of a vaccine is for test a, trace and isolation of both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. This must be done efficiently.

Politicians have to meet people and sign papers etc. They cannot work in isolation and should not be blamed if they do not wear masks all the time. The masks may not protect them. It is no surprise to me that some politicians have become infected . The risks are high for them.

I was surprised that President Macron did not catch the virus when he was mobbed by a crowd in Beirut. The crowd were seeking succour and at one point his mask slipped off. His entourage must have been pulling its hair out. Was he brave or foolhardy? As a politician he no doubt felt the need to get close to the people. Brave or foolhardy he was lucky that he got away with it. 

Brave or foolhardy President Trump was unlucky and so was his wife. I do not agree with Trump's policies or his public statements but I feel no personal animosity towards him and I wish him and his wife and his family and friends speedy recoveries.

"Illegal Immigrants"

 Why is the government wasting precious time to consider harbouring asylum seekers and so called "illegal immigrants" off-shore.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/01/uk-offshore-detention-proposal-could-create-human-rights-disaster-australian-experts-warn

Nothing is going to stem the tide of people migrating across the world. Asylum seekers have the right in international law to be allowed their freedom of movement once they arrive and have been registered.

Some migrants are not asylum seekers and have entered the UK illegally for economic reasons. Along with the asylum seekers, that get to our shores by unconventional means, they are the world's most brave, resourceful and enterprising citizens and probably the most amicable. Why not give all migrants the opportunity to help themselves to rebuild their lives whilst adding to the economic progress of the nation?

It is my opinion that "illegal economic migrants" should be registered and given a substantial period of time to establish themselves in good jobs or start successful businesses. If they have not done so after a fair period of time they would be told to leave. Once the migrants have become established in the UK then their families should be allowed to join them. This would be better than the cruel system that we have got now; the migrants are here to stay, as there is a 40,000 backlog of deportations. The current system is unrealistic and  unmanageable: it will not work. 

Surely, my proposal would be better than the inhumane system of jailing them or harbouring them offshore. 

It is time for our nation to get real about migration.  

What happened to the Bats

 A couple of weeks ago on a balmy evening just after sunset a solitary pipistrelle bat flew over our garden. Forty years we would have seen a flock of a dozen or or perhaps even more. Ours was the first bat that I had seen over the garden all summer. The bat population in the UK has been devastated. What has happened to them? Apart from their general environment being destroyed they are suffering from a marked fall in their insect prey.

Likewise, I am seeing a marked decrease in the number of Swifts flying over our house each summer. They feed on insects.

All over Europe, we are seeing an accelerating decline in insect populations. Insects are a vital  part of our ecology, they help maintain the fertility of the soil and it is not just bees that pollinate plants but wasps, flies, beetles, butterflies and moths too. Without insects it is not just Swifts and Bats which will die out, but we are at risk too. Climate change contributes to the demise of insects, but it quite possible that the demise of insects will affect human populations before global warming kicks in to finish us off. We would do well to protect our environment before it is too late.

Reneging on the EU Withdrawal Agreement

 I find it astonishing that the government should seek to renege on the EU Withdrawal Agreement  and that any British Citizen would agree with this course of action. The Withdrawal Agreement was ratified by the UK parliament under full knowledge of its clauses and its implications. Repudiating the agreement will damage the peace process in Northern Ireland which is not fully established yet. It will also damage relations between the UK government and the devolved governments in Wales and Scotland and will exacerbate the desire of Scots to leave the UK.

 It will damage international relations: the leader of the Democrats in the US congress has said that congress will not ratify a US trade agreement with the UK if the peace in Northern Ireland is jeopardised by the UK not fulfilling their obligations. Also, and perhaps above all, no state will trust the UK again in their international dealings.

Quite possibly, the EU will refuse to ratify a trade agreement with the UK, when the UK repudiates large sections of the Withdrawal Agreement - they could even impose sanctions   UK citizens have voted for this state of affairs they may come to regret this folly.