Is this Taking Back Control ?

The Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration has identified discrepancies in the recording of immigrants, who require visas or have been granted limited stay. Between April 2015 and March 2017  Britain's border control recorded 607 million movements of mainly British and EU citizens.

However, 600,000 people who were stamped in were not recorded to have left the country. 200,000 were stamped out of the country but there were no records for them ever having been admitted to the country. This means that the movements of 800,000 non-British and non-EU citizens ,who do not have the right to reside permanently in the UK, are unaccounted for.

This quite frankly makes a mockery of any idea that the UK has control of its borders.  How many of the 200,000 let in without check are terrorists or secret agents hell bent on murdering or seriously injuring our citizens and foreign guests? How many have come to Britain to work in the grey economy? We will never know.

It is quite clear from these statistics that our borders are porous and that the government has no clear idea how to get immigration down to tens of thousands per year. The overwhelming majority of immigrants and visitors come here to work and holiday legally and live peacefully, but it seems that all controls are based on recording  those who will gladly  and voluntarily show their passport or Id card when entering or leaving the country. We are controlling only the innocent.

There are dozens of small ports dotted around the country where there are no border controls whatsoever. A terrorist, secret service agent or people smuggler can easily gain access to the country.

How did the secret service agents who used nerve gas to poison our Russian visitors and one of our policemen get into and out of the country unnoticed? It seems to me that whilst Border controls were checking the innocents at the front door the miscreants were climbing in and out through the back window.

Many people voted to leave the EU to keep immigrants out and take back control of our borders. The way things are at the moment this will never happen. They voted to leave the EU in vain and for a bad dream. Trying to control immigration with current methods is a completely pointless exercise.

We need immigrants from Europe and other countries to keep our economy and holiday industry going so why make unenforceable laws to keep willing workers out. Why not concentrate our efforts on keeping out terrorists, secret service agents and people smugglers?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/border-exit-checks-records-of-600000-people-missing-watchdog-reveals

Brexit again

The leaked government report forecasting the drop in performance of the post Brexit economy makes grim reading. The highlights of the report are shown below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42977967. 

Leave proponents can say what they like about the forecasts which "ceteris paribus" are gloomy. Even if we stay in the single market tens of billions of pounds will be lost to the exchequer. In the event of a Brexit without a deal, on average 8% will be wiped off UK GDP over a 15 year period. For the North East the situation will be worse, at 16%.

Of course, forecasts can be incorrect especially if mitigation is initiated. The Bank of England mitigated the gloomy effects of Brexit immediately after the referendum by reducing interest rates and adding liquidity to the economy to promote consumer spending and economic growth. Payback time will be arriving soon.

Leave proponents have not produced convincing counter arguments to the government report based on evidence. Neither have they produced convincing evidence for their claims that so called global free trade on WTO terms will produce strong economic growth. They have produced no evidence that there will be mitigation of the detrimental effects of leaving the EU.

None of this will cut any ice with the electorate.

As for taking back control, when we leave the EU we will be replacing controls for international driving with controls from a UN Convention. The government is taking legal and contingency steps to ratify the following:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/679994/MS1.2018_CM9570__Convention_on_Road_Traffic_WEB.pdf

Far from reducing red tape it will increase it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

Similarly, we shall replacing one set of rules for another regarding trade. We have less control over WTO rules than we have over the rule making process of the EU. When we leave the EU everything trading rule that we abide by globally will be set by someone else.

Most of what the Leave campaign said about the UK's economic prospects was wishful thinking based on little or weak evidence.

We will still be free to trade with China. British voters, however, might like to ask themselves why Germany is able to export,to China, five times the value of goods and services than Britain? What makes voters think that Britain will better placed to compete with the likes of Germany in international markets. Leaving the EU will not make our competitors go away. If we leave the EU we will lose our competitive edge over exporters to the market that we have just left. We will be competing against the likes of the USA, China, Japan and South Korea who will all be trying to take away our market share. The USA, China, Japan and South Korea could not care less about our balance of payments position - why should they?

The EU negotiated good deals with South Korea, Canada and Japan on our behalf. The Department of Trade will have to renegotiate all of our free trade deals, but it is now receiving criticism from the National Audit office about its efficiency to do this.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/department-international-trade-brexit-talks-11909044

It is time to stop dreaming  about taking back control and how easy it will be to trade as "Global Britain". Wake up before hard reality hits you: it is not too late to change your mind. You voted leave because you did not like globalisation; "Global Britain" is about do give you what you were afraid of , in the first place, but with a vengeance.

The Presidents Club Scandal

We all know about the Presidents Club scandal and the moral outrage. I have some questions to ask.

What was a charity doing organising a rich man's stag party at the Dorchester Hotel which involved the deployment of young women as hostesses dressed in sexy clothes?

Why did the Dorchester Hotel allow such a party to be held on its premises?

Didn't any of these young ladies smell a rat when they were asked to wear sexy clothes, sign no-disclosure agreements and had their 'phones confiscated?

Did any of these ladies find it acceptable to be placed in a predicament where they would be groped by dirty old men? Did any of them volunteer for the job thinking that they would earn lots of money or further their careers?

The whole idea of escort agencies is rather seedy - were any of these ladies forced by traffickers or pimps to attend? Should there be a police investigation?

What are the share holders of the company directors who attended going to do about it?

What is the BBC going to do about it, if some of the people who appear on their shows also attended this stag night?

What are the constituents of any MP who attended going to do about it?

What will the wife of an attendee do about it?

Not every man who attended this seedy event is a dirty old man.

Probably, not every young woman who worked at the stag party is miss innocent. Some of these young women may feel it is their perfect right to ply their trade in any way they see fit; so who am I to judge.

In light of the  Hollywood sexual allegations against film directors: one thing is certain; the men who organised and attended this stag party should have had the foresight to realise that it would be infiltrated. An undercover journalist posed as a hostess and was prepared to be groped to expose this silly night out.

The stag party attendees have been exposed as either dirty old men or mugs or both.

Are these men, whose judgement is so poor, fit to be leaders of industry and other organisations?

Royal Wedding

There has been speculation in the press about the guest list for the wedding between Prince Harry and Miss Markel. An author has claimed that the President of the US is putting pressure on the UK government to obtain an invite to the wedding in exchange for a trade deal after Brexit. Only a few people can know whether this is true or not and the author is probably not amongst them.

The days have gone when royal marriages were used to arrange or cement international alliances. It is clear that it is a love match between Miss Markle and Prince Harry, and that this marriage has not been arranged or pre-ordained.

I am not expecting an invite to the wedding and I shall not be sending a congratulatory telegram or waving a flag.

I support the notion, however, that Miss Markle and Prince Harry are entitled to ask whoever they like to their wedding. Their marriage should not be used as a matter of improving international relations.

Like it or not, the current President of the US is a divisive character and when he is invited to the UK there will be demonstrations against the visit; which I shall not be attending. The marriage of any couple should not be marred by a demonstration against the visit of a foreign president, however. Therefore, the President should not be invited if it against against the wishes of the couple.

If the couple do feel, without pressure, that they want to invite the President then the marriage should be conducted in a place where all the guests and the flag waving public can be protected from the fury of some protesters.

Harry and his future wife are entitled, of course, to change the arrangements to get married quietly in a registry office and in a country of their choice:  the USA even. They will be just as happy if they do this and they will be able to invite whoever they want to the party afterwards.

Miss Markle probably feels that she is not marrying into a dysfunctional family but should she be made to feel that she is "marrying" into a dysfunctional country?

https://news.sky.com/story/trump-royal-wedding-snub-could-hit-post-brexit-trade-deal-11199343

British Sovereignty

The Bank of England has just announced that European Banks will be allowed to maintain the administrative and commercial status quo when Britain leaves the EU. This means that large European Union based banks will only have to be be represented in London by branches rather than bank subsidiaries which are legally set up in the UK. These branches will be able to keep their assets and liabilities on the books of their Headquarters in Europe. Control of these branches from a risk and liquidity point of view will be from the Head Office in Europe. Britain is too weak to insist that these banks open subsidiaries in the the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42420829

If  Britain leaves the EU, without a banking agreement for the "passporting" of financial services, then UK banks will have to set up subsidiaries in the EU. The assets and liabilities and profits will then become under the domain of the EU country where they are resident. So will the staff. Britain loses out. The EU have made it clear that to gain single market access, to the EU financial services market, Britain will have to agree to free movement of labour. Britain will have little choice: it is not powerful enough to insist that we have have complete access to the single market without accepting freedom of movement.

So much for taking back control and sovereignty. The Bank of England has just ceded control and sovereignty to the EU. Who voted for that?

By remaining in the EU, Britain would have had a big say in how European banks should act, we would have pooled our sovereignty. Now we have lost all say and the  European Banking Authority is being transferred from London to Paris, and the Authority will only be wrenched back from Paris with extreme difficulty and only if we rejoin the EU. If you voted leave, well done. You have been duped again and our nation will lose billions of pounds worth of  financial trade and influence.

A wonderful post-Brexit future

What makes anyone think that Britain will be better off if we leave the EU? My experience of working in 30 countries across the world suggests that we shall be in for a hard time.

We shall be throwing ourselves into an environment in which we are not fit to compete. How on earth is Britain going to negotiate and equitable deal with the USA? Britain is a very small nation compared to the USA. Despite the "special relationship", the USA can afford to ignore us. It did not need the UK's support for the invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan. It did not need British support in the Korean war. It would have lost the Vietnam war even if it had British support. The USA hardly needs us  and when Britain leaves the EU it won't need us at all. The USA will always look after its own interests just as Britain, France and China do. They will do us no favours when we leave the EU and we should not expect them to. The USA respects power and the UK will have no more power than Malta does when we leave the EU.

American citizens abroad have an easy going self  confidence which they know is backed up by a gigantic economic and corporate power. They can fill meetings with experts they can outnumber the British and "outgun us" at anytime. The idea that a "Lord Snooty" or "Roy of the Rovers" character can beat all comers by acting alone is comic book fantasy. The Americans will walk all over us . So will the EU and China; and so will India which is catching up fast with the other economic super-powers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Snooty

http://scotiafile.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/lord-snooty-and-his-pals-beano.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_of_the_Rovers

How on earth can Britain survive in a cruel hard world when the government has no plan for our future relationship with the EU after we have left?  And, no plan for our relationship with the rest of the world for that matter. How on earth can Britain prosper when the government has made no assessments - good or bad- of the economic effects of leaving the EU ? How could a government of this nature be trusted to negotiate with any one? How could a government be trusted to exploit any opportunity arising from leaving the EU?

Out in the big wild world many of our citizens are unfit to compete  with the competition on a personal basis. I have worked in many countries and with people from all over the world. I have found that none of these world citizens have a self-satisfied sense of entitlement. They work very hard. Many of my fellow Britons could not spell or write coherent English as well as the Indian citizens that I have encountered. Even Russian and Chinese workers can "out-spell" the British.

I have asked Indian workers to write reports for me  which I could deliver to senior management with very little correction or alteration. They seem to know the difference between a "blog" and a business report. English is the business language of the world; so isn't it a shame that  many British people are unable to exploit their native language? It helps when you are in another country to be able to speak some of the language even if it is just to say: "thank you" or "good morning". The language skills of British young people are appalling. You are not going to make many sales in Japan or China if you cannot even be seen to be polite. Britons will not only be coming up against tariff and non-tariff barriers they will also be coming up against language barriers.

A metropolitan elite has somehow persuaded the British electorate that Britain can easily survive on its own. The trouble is this elite is decadent and lazy and has an undeserved sense of entitlement and superiority  It is just the sort of attitude that ruffles feathers in India, Canada, Australia, Ireland, and the US. This elite is now in control of our future. It is this elite that will be sending their own kind out into the rest of the world to struggle for Britain and with their attitude they are dooming us to failure.

This sense of superiority and entitlement will not serve us well. We are on a downward slope and we shall skid along to disaster if we are not careful. The reality is we need our European friends more than they need us. The EU protects us from failure and gives us the opportunity to compete with the rest of the world on an even playing field. We don't need "Roy of the Rovers" we need a sense of realism and team work to progress.

Time to Call Off Brexit

Nearly every prediction that I have made about Brexit is now coming true. Northern Ireland is now the sticking point. When Ireland and Britain joined the Common Market, way back in 1973, very few people believed that European unity would go some way to helping a peace process in Northern Ireland and on the island of Ireland in general. By 1973, the troubles in Northern Ireland were well underway. By the time that the "civil war" had been resolved in 1998 over 1800 civilians had been killed, the majority of whom were residents of Northern Ireland. The conflict, however, claimed civilian casualties in both the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.

The EU was part of the solution to centuries of conflict. Free movement of people and trade helped to breakdown the social, economic and political divisions. The Republic of Ireland and the UK became equals and this also helped smooth the way to the Republic of Ireland declaring that it no longer had a unilateral claim to achieve a united Ireland. The UK also declared that it had no interest in preserving a union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain against the wishes of a majority in Northern Ireland. The scene was set for continuing peace.

This peace could easily be unravelled. If the UK leaves the European Union customs treaties and the single market then there will have to be a hard border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland. The people of Northern Ireland voted by a small majority (55%) to remain in the EU and therefore by default to remain in the customs union and single market. It looks as though some political elements in both Great Britain and Northern Ireland want to force the people of Northern Ireland out of the EU and its institutions against their will.

The UK is a sovereign state but any state has to exercise its sovereignty carefully. Britain has to consider the views of the Republic of Ireland and it also has to consider the views of a substantial minority of Northern Irish citizens who either wish for a unified Ireland or very close relations with the Republic. It would also seem that many in the loyalist community also want to maintain close relations with the Republic. The EU allowed for these close relations be maintained on an equitable, legal and peaceful basis. The UK could quite easily jeopardise 20 years of peace by quitting the EU.

It is quite clear that the Republic of Ireland is no longer willing to give in to the UK's economic power to dominate events. The EU gives it the power to challenge us. The UK should learn a lesson from this.  By being part of a super power the UK is able to influence events and challenge US and Chinese power.

You, mister voter, were given the power in the referendum to influence the future of all of the nations that make up the United Kingdom. You demanded it and, therefore, it was your duty to research the history of our nation and consider the consequences of your decision to leave the EU. Will you ever be forgiven if conflict returns to Northern Ireland and violence returns not just to Ulster but to the Republic of Ireland too; and of course to the British mainland?