I remain sceptical that the remains found in a Leicester car park are in fact those of Richard III. I have two grounds for this.
The radio carbon dating cannot, exactly, narrow down the year of death of the skeleton. The radio carbon dating estimates that the person in the grave died between the years of 1450 and 1540. Richard III died in 1485. There is a considerable chance that the human buried there died before 1450.
Genetic evidence is rarely conclusive. The scientists have only made "matches" for mitochondrial DNA. They have not matched nuclear DNA. The findings have not been peer reviewed yet. There could be other living people who have the same match but are not on the genealogical line. If such a person is discovered it would cast doubt about the identity of the person buried in Greyfriars church.
We do not have known samples of Richard III DNA to make a direct comparison.
We should be careful to assume absolutely that these are the remains of Richard III. We should also be careful that the team investigating the remains are not making the facts fit the desired result.
There is strong circumstantial evidence but none of it is incontrovertible. When incontrovertible evidence is forthcoming I shall believe that they have found Richard III's grave.
There has been a lot of publicity and hullabaloo surrounding the remains and this type of PR activity makes me suspicious. The newspapers just seem to blindingly accept what the Richard III society and the University of Leicester are claiming. There seems to have been no real critical examination of the claims.
The Government and the Head of State have made no official comment and there seem to be no preparations being made for an official burial. The State is right to remain guarded until there is absolute proof.
I remind readers that scientists have made PR statements of a tenuous nature before and with "99% certainty". Every one could have reasonable grounds to believe that a meteorite discovered in Antarctica contained fossilised Martian microbes. This discovery was greeted with well founded scepticism. The microbes turned out to be an artifacts. But this does not mean to say that life or evidence of it will not be found on Mars itself.
We were also assured at a press conference that scientists at CERN had discovered Neutrinos that could travel faster than light. This, if proven to be true, would have over turned Einstein's theories of relativity. It turned out to be a measurement error. The sceptics were right to warn against jumping to conclusions before there was absolute proof positive.
But , of course, nearly every one wants to believe -but not me.
Friday, 15 February 2013
Monday, 21 January 2013
The Sahel Emergency
Once again the west is getting involved in a war in Mali under the pretext of heading off terrorism. I cannot help thinking that this policy will not work. The French soldiers are being held as liberators at present but if they remain for a long time they will start to become regarded as occupiers. This will feed resentment and further opposition in the local population.
Terrorists where ever they are and whoever they may be must be stopped. I believe that it is better to deploy most of our resources to track down the small number of terrorist leaders and then capture them and put them on trial. They should be imprisoned, if found guilty, rather than executed.
Justice will then be seen to be done. The communities, from which the terrorists draw their tacit support, will then see the protagonists for what they really are and withdraw their backing.
Troops which are used as invasion forces should be re-deployed to protect key installations and infrastructure directly.
In Mali, there might just be a case for using foreign troops to prevent a guerrilla army overrunning the country and imposing laws which do not have popular support. This army should remain no longer than is necessary and should withdraw when the threat is eliminated. They should not outstay their welcome.
Terrorists where ever they are and whoever they may be must be stopped. I believe that it is better to deploy most of our resources to track down the small number of terrorist leaders and then capture them and put them on trial. They should be imprisoned, if found guilty, rather than executed.
Justice will then be seen to be done. The communities, from which the terrorists draw their tacit support, will then see the protagonists for what they really are and withdraw their backing.
Troops which are used as invasion forces should be re-deployed to protect key installations and infrastructure directly.
In Mali, there might just be a case for using foreign troops to prevent a guerrilla army overrunning the country and imposing laws which do not have popular support. This army should remain no longer than is necessary and should withdraw when the threat is eliminated. They should not outstay their welcome.
Decadence and Snow
Once again our country ( UK) is brought to standstill by a few inches of snow. Last Friday twelve hours before a flake fell one of the London Region's train companies declared an emergency timetable. They cancelled a number of rush hour trains. This is sheer decadence.
There was a real emergency going on in Algeria and now doubt the Foreign and Defence Ministries would have appreciated all their staff getting to work on time.
The BBC was constantly giving us reports about the extreme weather. We are not having extreme weather: minus 1 Celcius and 4 inches of snow is not extreme weather. Why was the BBC not calling into account the railway companies who claim that they could not run the trains when there is a few inches of snow?
I have had the pleasure of working in Hamburg in the winter. The temperatures are much colder and the snow is deeper. They use the same electric three rail system as London. Their trains run on time in winter; why can't ours?
The residents of Prague, New York and Moscow must be laughing at us.
Today, 5,000 schools were closed because of 4 inches of snow. Once again the BBC did not question a Headmaster who said he had closed his school because a pupil might slip over and break an arm. Does this mean that he should cancel all football and rugby lesson for fear of a broken arm? What would he do if the snow fell for six weeks? This happened in 1962.
In 1962 our winter could just about manage to be called extreme; the snow and freezing temperatures lasted for weeks. All the schools remained open and the buses kept running we did not miss a day of school. We are a much richer country now and have much more resources. We could easily keep the schools open and the buses and trains running through a few inches of snow.
What we are lacking is the will, mental attitude and vitality to keep things going when there is a minor in convenience and such decadence could see us off.
It is a good job that the police, fire brigade and ambulance men and women do not have the same mental weakness.
When some climbers had a tragic accident in Scotland over the weekend many brave mountain rescuers faced the snow to help them. Perhaps some mountain rescuers could be seconded to run our schools and railways. They are brave enough to get the job done.
It is also a good job that the armed services do not refuse to rescue hostages or sailors in distress during a real emergency because of the prospect of bad weather. Where would we be then?
There was a real emergency going on in Algeria and now doubt the Foreign and Defence Ministries would have appreciated all their staff getting to work on time.
The BBC was constantly giving us reports about the extreme weather. We are not having extreme weather: minus 1 Celcius and 4 inches of snow is not extreme weather. Why was the BBC not calling into account the railway companies who claim that they could not run the trains when there is a few inches of snow?
I have had the pleasure of working in Hamburg in the winter. The temperatures are much colder and the snow is deeper. They use the same electric three rail system as London. Their trains run on time in winter; why can't ours?
The residents of Prague, New York and Moscow must be laughing at us.
Today, 5,000 schools were closed because of 4 inches of snow. Once again the BBC did not question a Headmaster who said he had closed his school because a pupil might slip over and break an arm. Does this mean that he should cancel all football and rugby lesson for fear of a broken arm? What would he do if the snow fell for six weeks? This happened in 1962.
In 1962 our winter could just about manage to be called extreme; the snow and freezing temperatures lasted for weeks. All the schools remained open and the buses kept running we did not miss a day of school. We are a much richer country now and have much more resources. We could easily keep the schools open and the buses and trains running through a few inches of snow.
What we are lacking is the will, mental attitude and vitality to keep things going when there is a minor in convenience and such decadence could see us off.
It is a good job that the police, fire brigade and ambulance men and women do not have the same mental weakness.
When some climbers had a tragic accident in Scotland over the weekend many brave mountain rescuers faced the snow to help them. Perhaps some mountain rescuers could be seconded to run our schools and railways. They are brave enough to get the job done.
It is also a good job that the armed services do not refuse to rescue hostages or sailors in distress during a real emergency because of the prospect of bad weather. Where would we be then?
Monday, 10 December 2012
Doha Climate Change Conference
Once again another climate change conference has concluded without there being any real progress. The world has not decided to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. In fact there is going to be an increase. In the foreseeable future there is no hope of us gaining control of our emissions and mitigating the probable dangerous effects of climate change.
http://us.oneworld.net/doha?gclid=CMzkg-vJj7QCFW3KtAod2ykAnQ
Consider this: since the industrial revolution the amount carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 200 billion tons. It is a fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
Between the end of the last glacial period, about 18,000 years ago, and the the start of the industrial revolution nature exchanged 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide between the oceans and the atmosphere. Nature had added a considerable quantity of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere but with only minimal intervention from mankind.
It took a long time, but this addition of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere was sufficient to melt most the ice covering the northern parts of Europe and Asia and to raise sea levels by tens of metres. However, during the 18,000 years since the last glacial period the earth returned three or four times back into glacial conditions and come out of them again.
The inter glacial period looks as though it is now fully established. Or is it?
During the Younger Dryas, about 13,000 years ago, the earth suddenly went back into full ice age conditions for a period of about 1,300 years. When the earth returned again, to inter glacial conditions, the change only took 50 to 70 years.
Three possible causes of the return to ice age conditions 13,000 years ago have been posited: a huge influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic, a volcano which emitted billions of tons of dust into the atmosphere or a large meteorite hitting the earth.
Whatever the cause, nature alone was able to change the climate and weather very suddenly. Adding an extra 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will not be without consequence. But, the consequence might not be the gradual and uniform increase in temperatures as predicted at the climate change conferences. We could be faced with the possibility of changes to the global distribution of heat.
The northern regions of the planet could cool down whilst the tropics heat up even more. Global average temperatures would still continue to increase. A slight change to the global heat distribution of the planet could suddenly initiate temporary ice age conditions in the northern hemisphere.
The quick onset of ice age conditions could be more dangerous than rising sea levels. How deep are your water pipes buried?
We are just as much a part of nature as any other creature and one could claim that what is happening to the atmosphere is perfectly natural. We are, however, the only creatures who can foresee the consequences of our own actions. The trouble is the damage we have already done to our own interests may now be irreversible.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data4.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
http://us.oneworld.net/doha?gclid=CMzkg-vJj7QCFW3KtAod2ykAnQ
Consider this: since the industrial revolution the amount carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 200 billion tons. It is a fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
Between the end of the last glacial period, about 18,000 years ago, and the the start of the industrial revolution nature exchanged 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide between the oceans and the atmosphere. Nature had added a considerable quantity of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere but with only minimal intervention from mankind.
It took a long time, but this addition of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere was sufficient to melt most the ice covering the northern parts of Europe and Asia and to raise sea levels by tens of metres. However, during the 18,000 years since the last glacial period the earth returned three or four times back into glacial conditions and come out of them again.
The inter glacial period looks as though it is now fully established. Or is it?
During the Younger Dryas, about 13,000 years ago, the earth suddenly went back into full ice age conditions for a period of about 1,300 years. When the earth returned again, to inter glacial conditions, the change only took 50 to 70 years.
Three possible causes of the return to ice age conditions 13,000 years ago have been posited: a huge influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic, a volcano which emitted billions of tons of dust into the atmosphere or a large meteorite hitting the earth.
Whatever the cause, nature alone was able to change the climate and weather very suddenly. Adding an extra 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will not be without consequence. But, the consequence might not be the gradual and uniform increase in temperatures as predicted at the climate change conferences. We could be faced with the possibility of changes to the global distribution of heat.
The northern regions of the planet could cool down whilst the tropics heat up even more. Global average temperatures would still continue to increase. A slight change to the global heat distribution of the planet could suddenly initiate temporary ice age conditions in the northern hemisphere.
The quick onset of ice age conditions could be more dangerous than rising sea levels. How deep are your water pipes buried?
We are just as much a part of nature as any other creature and one could claim that what is happening to the atmosphere is perfectly natural. We are, however, the only creatures who can foresee the consequences of our own actions. The trouble is the damage we have already done to our own interests may now be irreversible.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data4.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
Monday, 24 September 2012
Faith Healing
There are reports in the media that faith healing is spreading in England within the evangelical community. There is no evidence that God exists and there is certainly no evidence that faith healing works. It is my view that it is completely irresponsible for priests within the evangelical community to encourage vulnerable and sick members of their churches not to take their medication. Anyone who has Cancer or Aids cannot be cured by faith alone.
I have known a number of people who have tried faith remedies with tragic results. My best advice is to put your trust in conventional medicine; it is your only hope to cure life threatening diseases or conditions.
I have known a number of people who have tried faith remedies with tragic results. My best advice is to put your trust in conventional medicine; it is your only hope to cure life threatening diseases or conditions.
Sunday, 26 August 2012
Neil Armstrong
I can still remember the excitement when I saw the live pictures of Neil Armstrong stepping out onto the moon. It still amazes me how someone could have the courage to travel so far away from the home planet for so long. This type of exploration was completely different to any that had happened before. Not only did the have to carry their own food and water they had to carry their own oxygen. They had to take a little part of the whole earth with them in order to survive but even so they could not be supplied with the gravity conditions we enjoy on earth or the same perspective of the horizon. The Apollo 11 astronauts took enormous risks to achieve their mission and even succeeded despite computer based prompting to abandon the mission. This was human intelligence and spirit combining to operate at their best.
The moon landings and the first trip to orbit the moon, in Apollo 8, by Borman, Lovell and Anders shows the United States of America at its best, for its ingenuity, technical ability and bravery. All this was typified by Collins, Armstrong and Aldrin and exemplified when Lovell lead the stricken Apollo 13 mission back home against all the odds.
No words of mine can pay full tribute to Neil Armstrong.
The moon landings and the first trip to orbit the moon, in Apollo 8, by Borman, Lovell and Anders shows the United States of America at its best, for its ingenuity, technical ability and bravery. All this was typified by Collins, Armstrong and Aldrin and exemplified when Lovell lead the stricken Apollo 13 mission back home against all the odds.
No words of mine can pay full tribute to Neil Armstrong.
Curiosity
If I was able to award and Olympic gold medal, I would award it to Nasa for successfully landing the Curiosity probe on Mars. We still have no hard evidence that life has started anywhere else in the Universe other than on Earth.
I believe that life must have started on other planets somewhere in our galaxy but the chance of that life evolving into "intelligent beings" is probably remote. Believing something to be true is different to knowing that something is true and I would love to see hard evidence. Curiosity cannot, however, prove that life has never existed on Mars. Proof positive would lead to some profound changes to how we see ourselves and our place in the Universe. I will still not expect to meet some visitors from an alien planet even if we prove that there is life elsewhere in our solar system.
I believe that life must have started on other planets somewhere in our galaxy but the chance of that life evolving into "intelligent beings" is probably remote. Believing something to be true is different to knowing that something is true and I would love to see hard evidence. Curiosity cannot, however, prove that life has never existed on Mars. Proof positive would lead to some profound changes to how we see ourselves and our place in the Universe. I will still not expect to meet some visitors from an alien planet even if we prove that there is life elsewhere in our solar system.
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