A place where sceptics can exchange their views

Monday, 21 January 2013

The Sahel Emergency

Once again the west is getting involved in a war in Mali under the pretext of heading off terrorism. I cannot help thinking that this policy will not work. The French soldiers are being held as liberators at present but if they remain for a long time they will start to become regarded as occupiers. This will feed resentment and further opposition in the local population.

Terrorists where ever they are and whoever they may be must be stopped. I believe that it is better to deploy most of our resources to track down the small number of terrorist leaders and then capture them and put them on trial. They should be imprisoned, if found guilty, rather than executed.

Justice will then be seen to be done. The communities, from which the terrorists draw their tacit support, will then see the protagonists for what they really are and withdraw their backing.

Troops which are used as invasion forces should  be re-deployed to protect key installations and infrastructure directly.

In Mali, there might just be a case for using foreign troops to prevent a guerrilla army overrunning the country and imposing laws which do not have popular support. This army should remain no longer than is necessary and should withdraw when the threat is eliminated. They should not outstay their welcome.

Decadence and Snow

Once again our country ( UK)  is brought to standstill by a few inches of snow. Last Friday twelve hours before a flake fell one of the London Region's train companies declared an emergency timetable. They cancelled a number of rush hour trains. This is sheer decadence.

There was a real emergency going on in Algeria and now doubt the Foreign and Defence Ministries would have appreciated all their staff getting to work on time.

The BBC was constantly giving us reports about the extreme weather. We are not having extreme weather: minus 1 Celcius and 4 inches of snow is not extreme weather. Why was the BBC not calling into account the railway companies who claim that they could not run the trains when there is a few inches of snow?

I have had the pleasure of working in Hamburg in the winter. The temperatures are much colder and the snow is deeper. They use the same electric three rail system as London. Their trains run on time in winter; why can't ours?

The residents of Prague, New York and Moscow must be laughing at us.

Today, 5,000 schools were closed because of 4 inches of snow. Once again the BBC did not question a Headmaster who said he had closed his school because a pupil might slip over and break an arm. Does this mean that he should cancel all football and rugby lesson for fear of a broken arm? What would he do if the snow fell for six weeks? This happened in 1962.

In 1962 our winter could just about manage to be called extreme; the snow and freezing temperatures lasted for weeks. All the schools remained open and the buses kept running we did not miss a day of school. We are a much richer country now and have much more resources. We could easily keep the schools open and  the buses and trains running through a few inches of snow.

What we are lacking is the will, mental attitude and vitality to keep things going when there is a minor in convenience and such decadence could see us off.

It is a good job that the police, fire brigade and ambulance men and women do not have the same mental weakness.

When some climbers had a tragic accident in Scotland over the weekend many brave mountain rescuers faced the snow to help them. Perhaps some mountain rescuers could be seconded to run our schools and railways. They are brave enough to get the job done.

It is also a good job that the armed services do not refuse to rescue  hostages or sailors in distress during a real emergency because of the prospect of bad weather. Where would we be then?

Monday, 10 December 2012

Doha Climate Change Conference

Once again another climate change conference has concluded without there being any real progress. The world has not decided to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. In fact there is going to be an increase. In the foreseeable future there is no hope of us gaining control of our emissions and mitigating the probable dangerous effects of climate change.

http://us.oneworld.net/doha?gclid=CMzkg-vJj7QCFW3KtAod2ykAnQ

Consider this: since the industrial revolution the amount carbon dioxide  in the atmosphere has increased by  200 billion tons. It is a fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.

Between the end of the last glacial period, about 18,000 years ago, and the the start of the industrial revolution nature exchanged 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide between the oceans and the atmosphere. Nature had added a considerable quantity of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere but with only  minimal intervention from  mankind.

It took a long time, but this addition of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere was sufficient to melt most  the ice covering the northern parts of  Europe and Asia and to raise sea levels by tens of metres. However, during the 18,000 years since the last glacial period the earth returned three or four times back into glacial conditions and come out of them again.

The inter glacial period looks as though it is now fully established. Or is it?

During the Younger Dryas, about 13,000 years ago, the earth suddenly went back into full ice age conditions for a period of about 1,300 years. When the earth returned again, to inter glacial conditions, the change only took 50 to 70 years.

Three possible causes of the return to ice age conditions 13,000 years ago have been posited: a huge influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic, a volcano which emitted billions of tons of dust into the atmosphere or a large meteorite hitting the earth.

Whatever the cause, nature alone was able to change the climate and weather very suddenly. Adding an extra 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will not be without consequence. But, the consequence might not be the gradual and uniform  increase in  temperatures as predicted at the climate change conferences. We could be faced with the possibility of changes to the global distribution of heat.

The northern regions of the planet could cool down whilst the tropics heat up even more. Global average temperatures would still continue to increase. A slight change to the global heat distribution of the planet could suddenly initiate temporary ice age conditions in the northern hemisphere.

The quick onset of ice age conditions could be more dangerous than rising sea levels. How deep are your water pipes buried?

We are just as much a part of nature as any other creature and one could claim that what is happening to the atmosphere is perfectly natural. We are, however, the only creatures who can foresee the consequences of our own actions. The trouble is the damage we have already done to our own interests may now be irreversible.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data4.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas


Monday, 24 September 2012

Faith Healing

There are reports in the media that faith healing is spreading in England within the evangelical community. There is no evidence that God exists and there is certainly no evidence that faith healing works. It is my view that it is completely irresponsible for priests within the evangelical community to encourage vulnerable and sick members of their churches not to take their medication. Anyone who has Cancer or Aids cannot be cured by faith alone.

I have known a number of people who have tried faith remedies with tragic results. My best advice is to put your trust in conventional medicine; it is your only hope to cure life threatening diseases or conditions.

Sunday, 26 August 2012

Neil Armstrong

I can still remember the excitement when I saw the live pictures of Neil Armstrong stepping out onto the moon. It still amazes me how someone could have the courage to travel so far away from the home planet for so long. This type of exploration was completely different to any that had happened before. Not only did the have to carry their own food and water they had to carry their own oxygen. They had to take a little part of the whole earth with them in order to survive but even so they could not be supplied with the gravity conditions we enjoy on earth or the same perspective of the horizon. The Apollo 11 astronauts took enormous risks to achieve their mission and even succeeded despite computer based prompting to abandon the mission. This was human intelligence and spirit combining to operate at their best.

The moon landings and the first trip to orbit the moon, in Apollo 8, by Borman, Lovell and Anders  shows the United States of America at its best, for its ingenuity, technical ability and bravery. All this was typified by Collins, Armstrong and Aldrin and exemplified when Lovell lead the stricken Apollo 13 mission back home against all the odds.

No words of mine can pay full tribute to Neil Armstrong.

Curiosity

If I was able to award and Olympic gold medal, I would award it to Nasa for successfully landing the Curiosity probe on Mars. We still have no hard evidence that life has started anywhere else in the Universe other than  on Earth.

I believe that life must have started on other planets somewhere in our galaxy but the chance of that life evolving into "intelligent beings" is probably remote. Believing something to be true is different to knowing that something is true and I would love to see hard evidence. Curiosity cannot, however, prove that life has never existed on Mars. Proof positive would lead to some profound changes to how we see ourselves and our place in the Universe. I will still not expect to meet some visitors from an alien planet even if we prove that there is life elsewhere in our solar system.

Public Interest

I am a member of the public and I do not consider it to be in my interests to see pictures of Prince Harry performing his antics. Some newspapers claim that they have the right to publish these photographs because they have already been seen by everybody on a celebrity internet site. Well, I do not look at celebrity sites and I have no intention of doing so. When these pictures are limited to the internet viewers have to make a positive effort to see them, but when the person sitting opposite holds up their newspaper close to our face we have no choice but to look. The newspapers should consider this. We can all use our imagination about what happened so we do not need to have it pushed into our faces. It is debatable whether the antics of the Prince in Las Vegas should have been published at all. All this is done in the name of making money not in the public interest.

Please consider this: there is an outside but reasonable chance that Prince Harry will become the Head of State. Whether you are a republican or a monarchist do you want your Head of State  to become the subject of ridicule or public entertainment? The press should consider this too.

This weekend we have been treated to headlines from the popular press that there are rumours that a singer and a professional footballer have been having an affair. Once again you cannot avoid seeing these headlines. We have no way of knowing whether these rumours are true of not. We do not need to know about or read about such rubbish. Publication of such rumours is not in the public interest.

Once again the press is causing anguish to the family and friends of famous people when there is no need for it. Let's hope that the Leveson enquiry shows some teeth to prevent the publication of nonsense and rumour which has no bearing upon legitimate public concern.