"Cor Blimey" 160 billion to pay for EU bad loans - don't pay 'em

A senior Brexit politician has claimed that Britain will have to pay 160 billion towards the liabilities of the European Investment Bank and other EU financial Institutions. The gutter press has jumped upon this assertion to blame the EU once again for making the UK pay money unjustifiably to its coffers.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1317830/Brexit-news-Eu-loans-Boris-Johnson-withdrawal-agreement-Iain-Duncan-Smith

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12295372/britain-bill-160billion-eu-loans-brexit/

These stories are probably un-true because the gutter press and their friends in the Brexit community tend to exaggerate and generate project fear stories.

It is quite possible that none of the loans made by EU financial institutions whilst the UK is was a member state will become non-performing and that the UK's liabilities will be zero. It is obvious to all that the UK is responsible for its share of liabilities for loans made by the EU before the UK left the European Union. To renege upon this liability would see the UK becoming an international and financial pariah state.

Every person voting for Brexit knew that we would be liable for these debts. The Withdrawal Agreement which the UK Prime Minister signed stated specifically that the UK would be liable. The Brexit MPs were so keen on exiting the EU that they ensured that parliamentary scrutiny of the deal was curtailed. 

The people of Britain and Northern Ireland were told that leaving the EU would be a "piece of cake" and that they would have an "oven ready deal" which would allow the nation to leave the EU without any political, diplomatic or financial consequences. If you were one of the 52% of those who voted for Brexit then you were duped. Unfortunately, the 17 million who voted to leave, the 15 million who voted to Remain and the 13 million who did not vote, at all, will all suffer the same adverse consequences. If you voted to leave then do not complain when Covid 19 adversity is added to by leaving the single market and customs union. Any spare money that the government had to stimulate the economy after the 31 December 2020 has been spent on the Covid 19 crisis, the treasure chest is now empty. Added to this are liabilities incurred while the UK was part of the EU. We would have been better off not leaving.

Today it was announced that there will be a Kent Access Permit to allow HGV drivers access to a limited number of roads near the port of Dover and the Eurotunnel entrance to prevent lorries destined for the EU clogging up local roads. These permits will be valid for 24 hours and lorry drivers will be personally liable to a fine for breaking the rules. If EU hauliers and drivers refuse to drive to the UK because of the extra bureaucracy then there could be shortages of food.There is no doubt that prices will go up because of the inconvenience of time being wasted.  UK hauliers and drivers will be limited in the number of licences granted to operate in the EU so they will not be able to take up any slack generated by the reluctance of EU hauliers and drivers to come to the UK.

You were warned about this by the Remain supporters  whose claims were dismissed as project fear, but if we are not careful then project fear will become a reality. However, don't complain as you will get a blue passport and it will make you feel very special, but it won't help you to emigrate to the EU if times get very tough and you feel the desire to escape all the new bureaucracy, queues and financial liabilities.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/border-in-kent-will-create-more-red-tape-for-hauliers/

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/enforcing-operation-brock-plans-in-2021/proposed-legislative-amendments-on-enforcing-operation-brock

Populist governments don't work

Populist governments don't work and history shows that they never work. They don't work because they lead the populace, that voted for them, up the garden path and they make promises that cannot be kept. They are usually completely inept and they select inept yes-men to implement their daft policies without question.

The general population does not have either the time or inclination to research policy options. They do not have the time to analyse contradictions or misinformation. They elect governments to do this job for the them: to make sensible decisions and to lead the people to support policies which benefit the nation.

In the UK we now have a government which is inept, decadent and lazy. We have seen how badly it has managed the Covid 19 health crisis. It has fouled up the purchase of protective equipment, it imposed lockdown restrictions too late, it was indecisive and has made a complete mess of testing and tracing. Britain will be lucky to avoid a national 2nd wave of infections as it has not even stamped out the first wave. It is possible that the lockdown will have been released too early with costly consequences.

The US has had similar problems with its management of the Covid 19 crisis but it still has a long way to go before the deaths per 100,000 rate equals that of the UK: likewise, Brazil. Britain has been exceptional in Europe by the way it has failed to control the virus; the deaths in France, Spain and Italy were shocking but they were nothing compared to Britain. Britain is literally the sickman of Europe.

Soon the UK civil service will be reformed to make it much more political. Reasonably competent administrators will be replaced by yes-men who will fawn over their political masters, these sycophants will preside over an administrative mess. The UK has left the EU and will now require a government and administration to have the ability to improve the economy and its productive capacity. It needs to negotiate realistically with future trade partners to improve the standard of living of all Britons. It needs to protect its farming and fishing industries. The UK  needs to protect the NHS and provide it with sufficient competent staff; to do this it may have to rely on migrant labour. The UK needs to protect its service industries and ensure that they have export markets. Britain needs to co-operate with its European partners in science ,education, the protection of the environment and foreign policy.

To recover from the pandemic caused economic crisis Britain needs to co-operate with its nearest neighbours: to improve  prospects it needs to stay in the single market and probably in the customs union as well. The UK  risks being pushed around by the EU, the US, China and now Japan. I did not think Japan would issue trade ultimatums to the UK but they have just informed the British government that they want a new trade arrangement to be agreed within the next 3 months - will this be in Britain's favour? Who will push Britain around next,India?

I would love to live in a completely sovereign country as would everyone else. This is simply not possible, Britain has signed treaties with Nato, the WTO, the UN  and other international bodies - all of which limit sovereignty. Trading with the rest of the world on WTO terms will damage the economy; it would be far better to be in the Single Market and Customs Union which will protect Britain's commercial interests.  Britain could probably negotiate observer status on the European Council to put forward its point of view. It might be able to negotiate a veto over new trade agreements negotiated by the customs union - that would be just. The UK could probably negotiate an independent legal body to judge legal disputes. The EU would probably be able to compromise on this. Britain could even negotiate equal status over foreign policy and security decisions. We should try all of this instead of engaging in "dog in the manger" populism.

The UK has  left the EU and it won't be let back in, in a hurry; when things go wrong it will be own its own.

Planning the future and managing the transition out of the EU is a thousand times more complicated than ensuring an adequate supply of protective equipment for health workers and organising a test and trace system for Covid 19 victims. So far this populist government has failed you. What chance is there of them making a success of Brexit? There is a real danger that Britain will again become the economic sickman of Europe, hopefully the populists will change course, but I doubt it. You have voted for a rough ride.

Phasing out of coal

The government is to be congratulated for phasing out coal-fired power stations. Eventually most fossil fuels will need to phased out and we will have to rely upon wind, solar and hydrothermal energy.  We will also have to rely upon energy saving domestic and industrial appliances and thermal insulation. We need to make buildings warm in the winter and cool in the the summer without air conditioning, if this is possible.

All this should have been done yesterday, but it is a start on the long road to controlling man-made climate change and mitigating the effects of greenhouse over production.

We owe it to our young people to assure them a better future.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/countdown-to-2025-tracking-the-uk-coal-phase-out#:~:text=Just%20four%20coal%20plants%20will,the%20end%20of%20March%202020.

What a mess

It is a shame that our country has got itself into such a mess over the Covid-19 crisis. I predicted this, as our country has simply become decadent and lacks excellence in all walks of life. We have simply been unable to manage the crisis as well as other countries such as Germany, New Zealand, Australia and South Korea etc.

There is now no doubt that we have been unable to contain the virus resulting in one of the worst death rates in Europe and the numbers who have died are simply shocking. Pro-rata they are much worse than the US.

If, we as a country do not face up to the facts then we will fail badly. There is some ideological belief that Britain is exceptional and superior. The British are not superior to anybody else neither are we inferior. We are a European people whose culture is essentially the same as that of our neighbours. We are a multi-cultural nation like all the others in Europe. We have their strengths and weaknesses.

Our problems stem from our political system and its "winner takes all" voting practices. This means that ideological and populist leaning governments can easily take power. Populism has been proven by history not to work: nations need leadership which operates in a truly democratic and consensual framework. We have had Prime Ministers from both political parties which are not selected  by popular vote but by party ideologues. The Prime Minister then acquires all the powers of the monarch. We have an unelected Prime Minister and Head of State rolled into one. This form of government is not fit for purpose in the twenty first century. We cannot have rule by populists and ideologues and rule by referendums where a simply majority can change the constitution. This form of government does not work. There are no checks and balances.

Our system of public health has not protected our nation as it should have done. It has been good enough to prevent hundreds of thousands dying ,so far. However, it has allowed thousands of people to die prematurely. We must face this fact.

The NHS has been overwhelmed and has not proven itself the best in the world. The staff are but they cannot operate in an environment where protective equipment is not available. GP and Dental services have almost completely shut down, patients have been left in severe pain or with untreated life threatening problems. The NHS has been overwhelmed.

Patients who are obviously infected with the virus have been released from hospital  and sent back into care homes. If this has been part of a deliberate policy then it could be considered as criminal negligence, if was accidental then it was sheer incompetence. Whatever it is, it is shameful and whoever is responsible at the top should resign or be sacked.

At one point ideologues were averring that the Covid-19 virus should be allowed to run wild. You do not have to be a professor of epidemiology to work out that with a mortality rate of 1% then  around 330,000 people would die if only 50 % of the population caught the disease. This would mean that hundreds of thousands of older people would die, as would ten of thousands of younger people. The health system would collapse and so would the economy. This "herd immunity " policy is simply mad and anyone advocating it should be sacked.

It is quite possible that after acting too slowly to lockdown the country, the government is acting too fast to end the lockdown with the result of thousands more dying and worse economic damage.

I am fed up of being confined but three or four weeks of more lockdown is preferable to months of more misery.

We need test, track and trace to be up and running now and efficiently, otherwise we could be in for severe trouble. It is time to forget ideology, populism and public relations nonsense and start leadership by  democratic consent.

Hopefully, we can get ourselves out of this mess before ideology gets us into more trouble with Brexit.

Do you want to know a secret

The public should now become increasingly alarmed at the secrecy surrounding the government's management of the Covid -19 crisis. There is no need for secrecy pertaining to the scientific advice given to the government by the SAGE committee. The scientists on this committee have a moral obligation to publish their advice. Science is based upon the fact that knowledge should be shared. The scientists on this committee should share their advice with the public and ignore requests from the government to keep secrets. If they are not prepared to do this then they should resign.

Every day the governments and their scientists either refuse to answer simple questions from journalists or they dissimulate using ramble discourse which means almost nothing.

Today the figures have been released for the number of deaths in care homes. The public will be disturbed by the thousands of older people who have been left to die without hospital treatment. Was this deliberate policy or was this incompetence, we have a right to know? Why has the bravery of the coal face workers not been recognised, as they have worked through the crisis without adequate protection and testing. There should be an apology for the deaths of  so many doctors, nurses and care workers; not mealy mouthed platitudes and excuses.

Let's have a grown up conversation about this. One of the government's scientists claimed that we should do this. Let's have a grown up conversation about why Germany has been able so far to manage both the number of infections and death rate so much better than the UK. Why is the death rate of confirmed case so much higher in the UK than in the US ?

It is not true that the NHS "has not been overwhelmed" by the crisis; so many patients with other life threatening conditions have failed to be treated. It is difficult to get a GP appointment in person and Dental services have shutdown. GPs are not visiting care homes: why?

We are in a crisis and of course things can go wrong and there are failures, but the public understands this but it expects to be told the the facts.

Containment of the virus failed and it was bound to. The spread of the virus could not be stopped so why try to pretend that containment succeeded? Tell us why it failed and how that failure could have been mitigated if we had the resources to do it.

Why have public service employees across the board not been provided with adequate protection against infection?

We need to know why public health has failed to do enough testing. Is it a shortage of tests or staff or both. Is it because of a lack of effective decision making and organisation by the government and the administration?  If we are not told why then we will suspect a cover up.

All the scientific advice should be published so that the public can decide if and where and when the advice has been ignored  or played down by the politicians.   This is in the interest of the scientists themselves in case they are being set up for a fall.

The government and SAGE committee should open the books now. The public deserve some openness and honesty, especially as they have subjected themselves to house arrest. The public have played their part and it is incumbent on the government and SAGE to publish their deliberations as a mark of respect.

Social Market Foundation

The Social Market Foundation is proposing that pensions for the elderly should be disconnected from the triple-lock, because the financial burden of saving the lives of thousands of pensioners should not fall onto the working age poor. Pensioners should therefore pay for this intergenerational generosity.

Hold on a second. Anyone over 70 is now effectively under house arrest not just to save their own lives but to stop the virus infecting the younger generations. Hundreds of thousands of pensioners do not have gardens so house arrest for them is more like a prison sentence under solitary confinement. It is punishment for nothing. How do you count the cost of this suffering? Thousands of pensioners are being left alone to suffer for the effects of Covid-19 and if they don't die they could be left with long term illness. What is the cost of this?

Even in the best of times the state pension is not exactly a King's ransom especially if you do not own your house with a paid-off mortgage. Pensioners in this situation must pay rent which will take up a substantial amount of their meagre income. Who will take over the financial burden of looking after cash strapped pensioners if these recommendations are taken up? I suggest that it will be their cash strapped daughters and sons. If you are a pensioner on your own, then hardlines.

Many pensioners do voluntary work. How do you account for this Mr Social Market Foundation think-tank economist? What happens if the pensioner can't afford to do this work anymore? Who will take their place and how much will it cost?

How much more do you want to patronise the elderly? Do you want them all to be herded into care homes to be looked after by the poor? The carer and the cared for have been denied personal protection equipment so are they all part of the herd ? Will they all have to sacrifice their lives to keep the economy going? There could be no-one left to the buy the products of the economy which could die just as quickly as a Covid -19 victim.

It is time to put some thought back into the think-tank not remove it. Time for the financial burden to be put onto broader shoulders than the working age poor, perhaps?

http://www.smf.co.uk/press-release-scrap-pensions-triple-lock-coronavirus/

Get the Covid 19 testing done

The covid 19 virus has now killed over 3,600 in the UK. This is more people killed in a few weeks than were killed in the Northern Ireland troubles covering three decades from the late 1960's. The only resemblance that the Covid 19 struggle bears to a war is that both have a first victim - the truth.

The covid 19 virus is not brutal, it is not devious, it is not intelligent and it is not trying to avoid being eliminated. The disease can be contained and eliminated by taking effective measures. These are social distancing and the protection of health and care workers and the emergency service workers.   We have got the social distancing but more needs to be done. Why should the health of doctors, nurses, care workers, policemen, ambulance workers and  pharmacists,  have their health put at risk for lack of equipment.

It i also essential that antibody tests should be started as soon as possible. Public health administrators claim that the tests are not accurate enough at 90% to be used diagnostically. This may or not be true but fairly accurate tests could still be of use for data collection rather than diagnosis. This is the ultimate key to a solution.

It looks as though these tests could be used anonymously to test the general population to find out the proportion of the population who have already recovered from infection. The tests could be done twice on each individual and any conflicting result could be ignored. The 90% that are accurate could then be used to assess how many have been infected and have recovered. Polling statisticians can predict election results quite accurately from low samples. If we were to test 20,000 people across the nation we would have a reasonable set of data to help plan for the recovery.

When the tests are 99% accurate they can be used diagnostically. Home testing by the public should be ruled out because of the risk of fraud and people misjudging their result. Allowing some people to go about business as usual and others to remain locked away is a recipe for disaster.

The time to start this testing is now, if the antibody tests are to be useful. There should  be no dithering and no excuses why we cannot do this. Singapore used experimental tests to help fight the virus why can we not follow their lead? They had nothing to lose if the testing could not provide the right result and everything to gain if they did. They succeeded to control the virus with testing and other measures. We need to find out if we can do the same.

It is time for clear headed thinking and effective management of the crisis. If  the heads of government and health administration cannot provide this now and produce a clear and honest plan for the future, then they should resign and make way for others who are more competent.