Surely, whether you are a Brexit supporter or not you must admit to yourself that the whole political process has been a fiasco. We are now 4 weeks away from leaving the EU, and if there is no political intervention to either ratify the withdrawal agreement or delay Brexit then we leave without a deal. We make a clean break.
The short term consequences of a clean break are tremendous. The nation is simply not ready to leave from a legal, economic and administrative point of view.
The long term consequences are worse.
Freedom of movement between the EU and the UK will stop. This does not mean that immigration will either stop or even be reduced as promised; all the evidence suggests that immigration will continue unabated unless there is some sort of economic recession which makes the UK unattractive for economic migrants.
A clean break will mean that people who do not have any means of obtaining dual UK/EU nationality will become second class citizens. Irish citizens will have the right to work and live in the UK and the right to live and work in the EU. Any EU citizen, with UK indefinite leave to remain, will also have the right to live and work in the UK and the EU. British young people who do not have such privileges will be at the back of the queue to work for big international companies. There will be no escaping Britain to go to work in the EU, or anywhere else for that matter, if there is an increase in unemployment.
You had better hope that your son or daughter does not fall in love with a partner from the EU; the EU partner will not be able to come to live in the UK so you might find your son or daughter setting up home in the EU. You might need a visa to go and visit them.
Britain will lose a lot of diplomatic power. The government recently threatened to send an aircraft carrier to the South China sea. In response China broke off trade talks - brilliant.
The USA will take us to the cleaners negotiating a new trade deal, as our country will be almost powerless to resist chlorinated chicken, reduce food standards and the partial privatisation of the NHS by US companies. The UK will have Investor State Dispute Settlements forced upon us - the sovereignty of the UK will be compromised - another broken promise.
If we have a clean break from the EU then we will lose all of the free trade deals negotiated on our behalf by the Commission. Trade deals of which we have had a major say. We lose everything including the free trade deal with the EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Mexico etc. We will be left with temporary free trade deals with Switzerland and the Faroe islands. We will have to start from scratch. It will be like committing a trade war against ourselves. It is mad.
When we leave the single market, Japanese investment in UK industry will almost entirely disappear which means most of our car industry will disappear and their ancillary industries. All governments, since the Thatcher government, have guaranteed that the UK will stay in the single market. To the Japanese, the UK will have been seen to have acted in bad faith or even dishonourably. Britain will suffer because of this.
Perhaps, the worse aspect of a hard Brexit will be the damage that will be done to our relationship with Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. A hard border in Ireland could lead to social disorder and possibly a return to terrorist violence both in Ireland and in the UK . Do we really wan to return to the troubles even if the risk is small?
Brexit could even lead to the dismantlement of the UK. There is a fair chance that Scotland and Northern Ireland will vote for a split from the UK. This will mean further legal, economic and administrative disruption.
The EU has helped maintain the peace in Europe after centuries of warfare. The UK breaking away could inspire others. Disunity in Europe could lead to renewed conflict.
Why should the UK take the risk of Brexit? Brexiter politicians have no plan for what happens after we leave. They have broken their promise that the transition would be smooth. They have no plan to improve the economic, political and administrative position of the UK after we leave.
We are facing chaos.
If the worse comes to the worse then Leave voters will have no moral right to complain. Everyone will suffer excepting the rich elite - Leaver and Remain elites the like. Leave voters voted in the referendum to improve their lives; their hopes will have been dashed. I hope that they demonstrate their disappointment peacefully.
Friday, 1 March 2019
Thursday, 31 January 2019
Brexit hokey pokey
As predicted the whole Brexit project is becoming a farce and our nation is becoming an international laughing stock.
Leave voters have been completely deceived and continue to be deceived. Brexit politicians continue to short the public by making more and more ridiculous assertions.
Everything is not going to be wonderful on the night. If we leave the EU without a deal then there will be severe commercial consequences.
Customs controls between the UK and the EU will have to be implemented and there is the potential for chaos at the borders. There will be long queues. Holland and France have recruited hundreds more customs officers. What do Brexit politicians think they will be doing? Playing snap: no they will be inspecting lorries for contraband, compliance with EU customs rules and security.
The last time I passed through the border posts at the Eurotunnel it was easy to see a queue of cars building up to a kilometre long, even though it was a quiet day and most car checks were only taking two minutes. What will happen when thousands of lorries are subjected to customs checks which also include scanning for "illegal" migrants etc.
Hauliers will be reluctant to send lorries across the channel if they are stuck in queues wasting time and money whilst going and coming back.
The whole idea of a customs union and single market was to save lots of time and money; if you pull out of membership of both these institutions, then you lose the commercial benefits of being part of the biggest and most comprehensive free trade area ever invented. It's bonkers, we will be worse off for ever.
The Brexiters have not got anywhere near replacing the the free trade deals that we have with other nations as a result of being in the customs union. They have proposed joining the pacific free trade area which consists of Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. Hey presto, the EU customs union has already got agreements with Japan, Canada and Mexico and also South Korea thrown in. We shall lose all of the agreements if we leave without a deal and replacing them will take years. This is shooting yourself in the foot.
The Trade Secretary was boasting at Davos that the UK had signed a free trade deal with Israel - in principle. And guess what, we already have a free trade trade by courtesy of the EU, so it's back to square one. Why not put this on the side of a red bus.
The biggest and most colossal mistake of the negotiations to make our country worse off and weaker socially and diplomatically is the problem of the Northern Irish border with the EU. The Brexiters are treating the Northern Irish and the Irish with contempt. It is obvious to most rational people that the Belfast Agreement has preserved the peace in both the UK and Ireland for many years. The Belfast Agreement is underpinned by membership of the EU with open borders and tariff and quota free trade, along with standardised phyto-sanitary standards for agriculture. If you put any of this in jeopardy then you could easily compromise the peace. You also jeopardise the living standards of both communities on either side of the border. Ireland as a whole deserves better than to be cheated on once again by the British.
The Brexiters were prepared to sell Northern Ireland down the river, in the initial negotiations, by conceding to the EU that there should be a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. When Northern Ireland politicians complained, the Brexiteers insisted that the only solution was for the UK, as a whole, to stay in the customs union as a temporary measure. This temporary measure -the backstop- would remain in place until both the EU and the UK agreed it would stop. The withdrawal agreement was signed only for the UK parliament not to ratify it. The UK government now wants to change the withdrawal agreement by annulling the back stop - a backstop which they insisted upon. It is no wonder that the EU says no - they simply do not trust the UK.
To add to the confusion it is clear that the UK will not be ready either commercially, legally or administratively to leave the EU without a deal on the 29th of March: the UK will probably ask for an extension of EU membership. The EU will extract more concessions from the UK to allow this. Spain could ask for Gibraltar back - Gibraltar voted 99% to stay in the EU and the UK.
The English nationalist Brexiters have also sold Scotland down the river. To encourage Scotland to vote, in their independence referendum, to stay in the UK they promised continued EU membership. Naturally, the Scots feel let down by Brexit and they will undoubtedly press for a further independence referendum.
One of the worst aspects of Brexit is the sell out of most of our youth who will be denied free movement even if we get a deal. The EU was one of the last regions of the world where young Britons were free to roam, work and love. Luckily, for them, the youth of Northern Ireland will be able to get Irish citizenship which will allow them to move freely in both the EU and the UK.This will give them an advantage over their now second class brothers from Manchester, Liverpool and London who might not have Irish connections. The DUP should beware, if you drive the youth of Northern Ireland to obtain Irish passports they will no doubt feel more Irish and will feel more inclined to vote for Irish unity.
Brexiters have sold Scotland, Ireland and Gibraltar down the river. They have also sold the UK down the river but worse of all they have sold their leave voters down the river. It is no wonder the UK is a divided, confused and unhappy state None of the Brexit promises will ever be kept. If we leave without a deal on the 29th of March 2019 it will be no use crying, demonstrating or complaining. It will be too late and it will take years to get back to the status quo, indeed if ever. The UK will be lost.
Leave voters have been completely deceived and continue to be deceived. Brexit politicians continue to short the public by making more and more ridiculous assertions.
Everything is not going to be wonderful on the night. If we leave the EU without a deal then there will be severe commercial consequences.
Customs controls between the UK and the EU will have to be implemented and there is the potential for chaos at the borders. There will be long queues. Holland and France have recruited hundreds more customs officers. What do Brexit politicians think they will be doing? Playing snap: no they will be inspecting lorries for contraband, compliance with EU customs rules and security.
The last time I passed through the border posts at the Eurotunnel it was easy to see a queue of cars building up to a kilometre long, even though it was a quiet day and most car checks were only taking two minutes. What will happen when thousands of lorries are subjected to customs checks which also include scanning for "illegal" migrants etc.
Hauliers will be reluctant to send lorries across the channel if they are stuck in queues wasting time and money whilst going and coming back.
The whole idea of a customs union and single market was to save lots of time and money; if you pull out of membership of both these institutions, then you lose the commercial benefits of being part of the biggest and most comprehensive free trade area ever invented. It's bonkers, we will be worse off for ever.
The Brexiters have not got anywhere near replacing the the free trade deals that we have with other nations as a result of being in the customs union. They have proposed joining the pacific free trade area which consists of Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. Hey presto, the EU customs union has already got agreements with Japan, Canada and Mexico and also South Korea thrown in. We shall lose all of the agreements if we leave without a deal and replacing them will take years. This is shooting yourself in the foot.
The Trade Secretary was boasting at Davos that the UK had signed a free trade deal with Israel - in principle. And guess what, we already have a free trade trade by courtesy of the EU, so it's back to square one. Why not put this on the side of a red bus.
The biggest and most colossal mistake of the negotiations to make our country worse off and weaker socially and diplomatically is the problem of the Northern Irish border with the EU. The Brexiters are treating the Northern Irish and the Irish with contempt. It is obvious to most rational people that the Belfast Agreement has preserved the peace in both the UK and Ireland for many years. The Belfast Agreement is underpinned by membership of the EU with open borders and tariff and quota free trade, along with standardised phyto-sanitary standards for agriculture. If you put any of this in jeopardy then you could easily compromise the peace. You also jeopardise the living standards of both communities on either side of the border. Ireland as a whole deserves better than to be cheated on once again by the British.
The Brexiters were prepared to sell Northern Ireland down the river, in the initial negotiations, by conceding to the EU that there should be a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. When Northern Ireland politicians complained, the Brexiteers insisted that the only solution was for the UK, as a whole, to stay in the customs union as a temporary measure. This temporary measure -the backstop- would remain in place until both the EU and the UK agreed it would stop. The withdrawal agreement was signed only for the UK parliament not to ratify it. The UK government now wants to change the withdrawal agreement by annulling the back stop - a backstop which they insisted upon. It is no wonder that the EU says no - they simply do not trust the UK.
To add to the confusion it is clear that the UK will not be ready either commercially, legally or administratively to leave the EU without a deal on the 29th of March: the UK will probably ask for an extension of EU membership. The EU will extract more concessions from the UK to allow this. Spain could ask for Gibraltar back - Gibraltar voted 99% to stay in the EU and the UK.
The English nationalist Brexiters have also sold Scotland down the river. To encourage Scotland to vote, in their independence referendum, to stay in the UK they promised continued EU membership. Naturally, the Scots feel let down by Brexit and they will undoubtedly press for a further independence referendum.
One of the worst aspects of Brexit is the sell out of most of our youth who will be denied free movement even if we get a deal. The EU was one of the last regions of the world where young Britons were free to roam, work and love. Luckily, for them, the youth of Northern Ireland will be able to get Irish citizenship which will allow them to move freely in both the EU and the UK.This will give them an advantage over their now second class brothers from Manchester, Liverpool and London who might not have Irish connections. The DUP should beware, if you drive the youth of Northern Ireland to obtain Irish passports they will no doubt feel more Irish and will feel more inclined to vote for Irish unity.
Brexiters have sold Scotland, Ireland and Gibraltar down the river. They have also sold the UK down the river but worse of all they have sold their leave voters down the river. It is no wonder the UK is a divided, confused and unhappy state None of the Brexit promises will ever be kept. If we leave without a deal on the 29th of March 2019 it will be no use crying, demonstrating or complaining. It will be too late and it will take years to get back to the status quo, indeed if ever. The UK will be lost.
Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Political Abuse
It is unacceptable for anyone to be subjected to violence or abusive insults for expressing their political beliefs. Freedom of expression is enshrined in the constitution of some countries such as the US and France and it is enshrined in law in the UK.It must be defended at all costs.
It does not matter whether it is Nigel Farage sitting down for a pub lunch in Downe Kent, with his family. Whether it is Jacob Rees-Mogg being mobbed outside of his home or Anna Soubry outside of Parliament.
All MP's should be allowed to carry out their business without death threats. Political based murder is both completely cruel and unjustified. UK MP's are not evil people and they deserve respect.
It is not just MP's who are affected by thuggish behaviour: it is families, journalists and workers who are associated with them who are also victims.
When I was a youngster I was taught not to be abusive or violent towards women. Equality for women does not mean that they should be treated with contempt. The same applies to ethnic minority people or gay people. Men in general should also be treated with equal respect.
Shouting down journalists because they happen to be women is cowardly. Every journalist is entitled to equal respect.
If we are not careful Britain will sink into a morass of abuse and insults and perhaps, even worse, more political violence.
It is time for the abuse and insults to stop we can all do better than this.
It does not matter whether it is Nigel Farage sitting down for a pub lunch in Downe Kent, with his family. Whether it is Jacob Rees-Mogg being mobbed outside of his home or Anna Soubry outside of Parliament.
All MP's should be allowed to carry out their business without death threats. Political based murder is both completely cruel and unjustified. UK MP's are not evil people and they deserve respect.
It is not just MP's who are affected by thuggish behaviour: it is families, journalists and workers who are associated with them who are also victims.
When I was a youngster I was taught not to be abusive or violent towards women. Equality for women does not mean that they should be treated with contempt. The same applies to ethnic minority people or gay people. Men in general should also be treated with equal respect.
Shouting down journalists because they happen to be women is cowardly. Every journalist is entitled to equal respect.
If we are not careful Britain will sink into a morass of abuse and insults and perhaps, even worse, more political violence.
It is time for the abuse and insults to stop we can all do better than this.
Wednesday, 19 December 2018
Decadence rules
We see it all around us, governments, political parties and businesses are declining and are now acting against the public good.
The self indulgence of our politicians is staggering. With regard to Brexit they are playing ideological games which could result in disaster. The confusion, indecision and complacency could lead to a political crisis of unparalleled proportions in recent times, this political crisis will then lead to an economic crisis.
The right wing political elements want a society that is almost completely deregulated based on so called free markets. The extreme left wing elements want the reverse. They are using the Brexit crisis to try get their way. Both sides are paralysing effective government at a time of enormous consequence. However, if either side eventually succeeds, Britain's future will depend upon wild swings of public opinion and alternating governments which will impose a regime of constant economic change and instability.
Some British politicians are indulging in the luxury of proselytising economic theories which will weaken our country both economically and politically. It is time for change and for our politicians to wake up: we need constitutional change rather than completely changing our relationship with Europe. We need a constitution which prevents political factions from paralysing good governance.
We need hard headed reform of our system of voting and the appointment and approval of government ministers. We need a system of government similar to the system in the USA but updated and adapted to the situation in Britain.
This week we have learnt that some businesses in the supply and service industries are penalising by increasing the fees for loyal customers but discounting new customers. Most people are too busy to be constantly changing their suppliers by joining tedious switch web sites; they have much better things to do with their time. It is all easy money.
We have also learnt that banks are cashing in when their customers inadvertently go overdrawn when using the internet or cash cards to buy goods and services: it's easy money again.
For years internet companies have been tricking customers into parting with more cash by designing websites which set out to fool customers who simply do not have the time to watch out for scams.
All businesses have a moral obligation not to rip off their customers in this way. Governments also have a moral duty to protect consumers.
How can a parliament which indulges in the luxury of ideological warfare protect voters? It is time for the decadence to stop.
The self indulgence of our politicians is staggering. With regard to Brexit they are playing ideological games which could result in disaster. The confusion, indecision and complacency could lead to a political crisis of unparalleled proportions in recent times, this political crisis will then lead to an economic crisis.
The right wing political elements want a society that is almost completely deregulated based on so called free markets. The extreme left wing elements want the reverse. They are using the Brexit crisis to try get their way. Both sides are paralysing effective government at a time of enormous consequence. However, if either side eventually succeeds, Britain's future will depend upon wild swings of public opinion and alternating governments which will impose a regime of constant economic change and instability.
Some British politicians are indulging in the luxury of proselytising economic theories which will weaken our country both economically and politically. It is time for change and for our politicians to wake up: we need constitutional change rather than completely changing our relationship with Europe. We need a constitution which prevents political factions from paralysing good governance.
We need hard headed reform of our system of voting and the appointment and approval of government ministers. We need a system of government similar to the system in the USA but updated and adapted to the situation in Britain.
This week we have learnt that some businesses in the supply and service industries are penalising by increasing the fees for loyal customers but discounting new customers. Most people are too busy to be constantly changing their suppliers by joining tedious switch web sites; they have much better things to do with their time. It is all easy money.
We have also learnt that banks are cashing in when their customers inadvertently go overdrawn when using the internet or cash cards to buy goods and services: it's easy money again.
For years internet companies have been tricking customers into parting with more cash by designing websites which set out to fool customers who simply do not have the time to watch out for scams.
All businesses have a moral obligation not to rip off their customers in this way. Governments also have a moral duty to protect consumers.
How can a parliament which indulges in the luxury of ideological warfare protect voters? It is time for the decadence to stop.
Monday, 19 November 2018
Brexit madness getting worse
Fact: The Brexit referendum was advisory. The government or parliament is not legally obliged to implement the result.
Fact: If the referendum had been conducted over a weekend when more workers would have had time to vote the result could have gone the other way.
Fact: A Mandatory referendum might have produced a different result.
Fact: This referendum result cannot be claimed to be the will of the people. The 13 million who did not vote could have been quite happy for parliament to decide. They could even have been politically opposed to referendums.
Fact:The country is now in a political crisis caused by an ill thought out Brexit process.
Fact: Countries such as Australia make voting compulsory. At least four of the six states must approve a change otherwise the result of the referendum is not carried.For these reasons most referendums do not initiate change but no-one gets into a blind rage about it.
Fact: The government did not carry out a cost benefit analysis before the referendum and present the results to the people. The government is still not presenting the full results of post referendum analysis to the people or parliament for that matter. Parliament should have insisted that a Royal Commission was carried out, to make recommendations about the implications of leaving the EU before the referendum.
Fact:Political crises usually result in economic crisis.
Fact: The public are beginning to support remaining in in the EU as a result of the fear of a political and economic crisis. The fear will be exacerbated by future economic problems.
It is time for a re-think: any form of Brexit will weaken the UK economically, diplomatically, socially and legally because of a lack of planning and the lack of a cost benefit analysis. We have no idea of how we can benefit from Brexit.
It is apparent that, now, even Malta has more power to influence diplomatic events than the UK, by shear dint of it being a member of the EU. Ireland has shown that now it can punch above the weight of the UK on the world stage.
If we finally leave the EU completely in two years time, we risk losing free trade deals that cover around 65% of the world's economy. From a position of much greater economic strength the EU is negotiating with India, the US and China to complete free trade coverage with most of the world's economies. We could be part of this and have an equal say in the final agreements. We risk losing all our free trade deals and then having to re-invent the trade scenario we have already got. This will take decades. We have no say in the US congress or the Indian parliament or in the congress of the PRC. We lose our say in the EU. Leaving the EU this way is economic stupidity at best. Do you really trust our government and parliament to negotiate better trade deals than the EU? Look at where parliament has lead us to.
Freedom of movement has played to our advantage. Britain has been able to tap upon resources that it could not supply for itself. The young people coming to the UK help to keep the NHS and Social Services running. They also support the Services and Construction industry.They help keep our high tech industries going. Not only do Europeans do this but young people from all over the world help keep our economy going . Why deny anyone the right to work in the UK?
Freedom of movement helps the exchange of cultural, scientific and engineering ideas to keep our country flourishing and competitive with other nations.
When we leave the EU Britain will become more divided. Northern Irish citizens will be able to obtain dual nationality by getting Irish passports. Their youth will be free to travel to the EU to get jobs; a facility which will denied to our young people from Manchester and Liverpool and Leeds if they cannot obtain dual nationality.
Hundreds of thousands of children who are born of EU parents will also be able to obtain dual nationality which will put our youth from Manchester and Liverpool etc. at further disadvantage.
Scotland voted to stay in the EU.Scotland will see that Northern Ireland will gain advantage from remaining in the Single Market. Scotland will feel aggrieved and will probably leave the rest of the UK to join the EU.
The worst and most disappointing aspect of Brexit will be the way impoverished leave voters have been treated in the past and the way they will be treated in the future. Leave voters did not have much choice; the only way most of them could get noticed was to protest in the referendum. They were treated badly not by the Eu but by their own government. These voters will suffer most from the reduced economic
opportunities, division and poorer social services which will result from Brexit.
Brexit is nonsense and it will lead to a poorer and more divided Britain. It will lead to a less influential Britain that is culturally more isolated.
Brexit should be stopped and it can be stopped. MPs should have the courage to stop this from happening. They can do this by creating alliances across the political parties to stop it in its tracks, they have the majority to do this. If they are too feeble to do this they should be able to have a majority to support remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union to mitigate the worse effects of Brexit.
Some Leavers will complain like mad. Most Remainers will silently cheer. Most of the people who did not vote will be relieved. Most of our young people will cheer aloud. There will be no violence on the streets.
Forget a new referendum. Parliament should have the courage to end the madness now.
Fact: If the referendum had been conducted over a weekend when more workers would have had time to vote the result could have gone the other way.
Fact: A Mandatory referendum might have produced a different result.
Fact: This referendum result cannot be claimed to be the will of the people. The 13 million who did not vote could have been quite happy for parliament to decide. They could even have been politically opposed to referendums.
Fact:The country is now in a political crisis caused by an ill thought out Brexit process.
Fact: Countries such as Australia make voting compulsory. At least four of the six states must approve a change otherwise the result of the referendum is not carried.For these reasons most referendums do not initiate change but no-one gets into a blind rage about it.
Fact: The government did not carry out a cost benefit analysis before the referendum and present the results to the people. The government is still not presenting the full results of post referendum analysis to the people or parliament for that matter. Parliament should have insisted that a Royal Commission was carried out, to make recommendations about the implications of leaving the EU before the referendum.
Fact:Political crises usually result in economic crisis.
Fact: The public are beginning to support remaining in in the EU as a result of the fear of a political and economic crisis. The fear will be exacerbated by future economic problems.
It is time for a re-think: any form of Brexit will weaken the UK economically, diplomatically, socially and legally because of a lack of planning and the lack of a cost benefit analysis. We have no idea of how we can benefit from Brexit.
It is apparent that, now, even Malta has more power to influence diplomatic events than the UK, by shear dint of it being a member of the EU. Ireland has shown that now it can punch above the weight of the UK on the world stage.
If we finally leave the EU completely in two years time, we risk losing free trade deals that cover around 65% of the world's economy. From a position of much greater economic strength the EU is negotiating with India, the US and China to complete free trade coverage with most of the world's economies. We could be part of this and have an equal say in the final agreements. We risk losing all our free trade deals and then having to re-invent the trade scenario we have already got. This will take decades. We have no say in the US congress or the Indian parliament or in the congress of the PRC. We lose our say in the EU. Leaving the EU this way is economic stupidity at best. Do you really trust our government and parliament to negotiate better trade deals than the EU? Look at where parliament has lead us to.
Freedom of movement has played to our advantage. Britain has been able to tap upon resources that it could not supply for itself. The young people coming to the UK help to keep the NHS and Social Services running. They also support the Services and Construction industry.They help keep our high tech industries going. Not only do Europeans do this but young people from all over the world help keep our economy going . Why deny anyone the right to work in the UK?
Freedom of movement helps the exchange of cultural, scientific and engineering ideas to keep our country flourishing and competitive with other nations.
When we leave the EU Britain will become more divided. Northern Irish citizens will be able to obtain dual nationality by getting Irish passports. Their youth will be free to travel to the EU to get jobs; a facility which will denied to our young people from Manchester and Liverpool and Leeds if they cannot obtain dual nationality.
Hundreds of thousands of children who are born of EU parents will also be able to obtain dual nationality which will put our youth from Manchester and Liverpool etc. at further disadvantage.
Scotland voted to stay in the EU.Scotland will see that Northern Ireland will gain advantage from remaining in the Single Market. Scotland will feel aggrieved and will probably leave the rest of the UK to join the EU.
The worst and most disappointing aspect of Brexit will be the way impoverished leave voters have been treated in the past and the way they will be treated in the future. Leave voters did not have much choice; the only way most of them could get noticed was to protest in the referendum. They were treated badly not by the Eu but by their own government. These voters will suffer most from the reduced economic
opportunities, division and poorer social services which will result from Brexit.
Brexit is nonsense and it will lead to a poorer and more divided Britain. It will lead to a less influential Britain that is culturally more isolated.
Brexit should be stopped and it can be stopped. MPs should have the courage to stop this from happening. They can do this by creating alliances across the political parties to stop it in its tracks, they have the majority to do this. If they are too feeble to do this they should be able to have a majority to support remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union to mitigate the worse effects of Brexit.
Some Leavers will complain like mad. Most Remainers will silently cheer. Most of the people who did not vote will be relieved. Most of our young people will cheer aloud. There will be no violence on the streets.
Forget a new referendum. Parliament should have the courage to end the madness now.
Thursday, 6 September 2018
Brexit and Immigration
I told you so, voting for Brexit will hardly dent immigration numbers. The Government is planning to issue visa to 2,500 non-EU migrant farm workers after Brexit in March 2019.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45429397
The workers will be allowed in for 6 months. The National Farmers Union has expressed fears that there will be a labour shortage after Brexit because EU workers are deciding to leave the country and probably will not come back. Wages in the rest of the EU are rising faster than in the UK and the fall in the pound makes Britain un-attractive from EU workers point of view.
Farmers will be looking for lower paid workers from other parts of the world.
Other industries will suffer a shortage of staff too and the solution will be the same. There will only be substantial reductions in immigration if the British economy loses momentum; but this would mean that most of us would suffer from a decline in the value of the pound and a failure of the economy to grow. It is more than possible that a no deal Brexit will harm the economy.
Even if there is a deal major international manufacturers will probably not invest in the UK as they will prefer to go to the EU where trading conditions are more stable and where they can lobby the EU and the 27 remaining governments. Even staying in the single market might not protect us from the loss of international manufacturing capacity.
If you voted to leave the EU because you were promised that there would be fewer immigrants and that you would be better off, it might be wise to think again. Perhaps, the costs and risks are greater than the benefits. No-one has explained yet how we can minimise the risks and exploit the benefits; no-one has a plan for leaving.
Leave politicians are due to publish a plan for Brexit soon, some of them have had 41 years to do this and over two years have gone by since the referendum - so far nothing. Can any of their expert predictions be any more certain than the predictions of the remain camp. Predictions can cancel each other out, but how can risks be mitigated if you do not have a realistic plan. It is all too late now, our best course of action will be to call off Brexit. Leave voters have been let down, your economic future is not secure.The immigrants will continue to come for without them our economy could fail completely.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45429397
The workers will be allowed in for 6 months. The National Farmers Union has expressed fears that there will be a labour shortage after Brexit because EU workers are deciding to leave the country and probably will not come back. Wages in the rest of the EU are rising faster than in the UK and the fall in the pound makes Britain un-attractive from EU workers point of view.
Farmers will be looking for lower paid workers from other parts of the world.
Other industries will suffer a shortage of staff too and the solution will be the same. There will only be substantial reductions in immigration if the British economy loses momentum; but this would mean that most of us would suffer from a decline in the value of the pound and a failure of the economy to grow. It is more than possible that a no deal Brexit will harm the economy.
Even if there is a deal major international manufacturers will probably not invest in the UK as they will prefer to go to the EU where trading conditions are more stable and where they can lobby the EU and the 27 remaining governments. Even staying in the single market might not protect us from the loss of international manufacturing capacity.
If you voted to leave the EU because you were promised that there would be fewer immigrants and that you would be better off, it might be wise to think again. Perhaps, the costs and risks are greater than the benefits. No-one has explained yet how we can minimise the risks and exploit the benefits; no-one has a plan for leaving.
Leave politicians are due to publish a plan for Brexit soon, some of them have had 41 years to do this and over two years have gone by since the referendum - so far nothing. Can any of their expert predictions be any more certain than the predictions of the remain camp. Predictions can cancel each other out, but how can risks be mitigated if you do not have a realistic plan. It is all too late now, our best course of action will be to call off Brexit. Leave voters have been let down, your economic future is not secure.The immigrants will continue to come for without them our economy could fail completely.
Saturday, 4 August 2018
The canicule
As far as I am concerned all doubt that human induced climate has been dispelled. This year in the South East of England our weather has changed form much colder than normal in winter - my pipes froze. We then moved to an early spring with more rain than usual. Now we have a canicule. June was the driest on record since 1925. I am now having difficulty reducing the temperature in my bedroom to below 30 degrees celcius.
The climate has changed so that average temperatures in the UK are more than 0.8 degrees celcius higher than the early 20th century.
We are lucky in the UK; the hot weather will break soon and we will get rain. We do not have heavily forested areas like California so forest fires are less of a problem. The UK is surrounded by sea so our canicules are moderated.
It looks as though this year the whole of the Northern Hemisphere is suffering from extremely high temperatures this is unusual.
The Iberian peninsular is sweltering. It looks as though the Sahara desert is travelling northwards. It is quite possible that Southern Spain will become a desert in the next two decades. It is also possible that parts of North Africa will become uninhabitable within the next two decades.
I fear that when temperatures return to "normal" humanity will forget about climate change and do nothing about it.
Do we have to suffer increasing temperatures each and every year before we turn our attention to reducing CO2 emissions? By then it will be too late.
The climate has changed so that average temperatures in the UK are more than 0.8 degrees celcius higher than the early 20th century.
We are lucky in the UK; the hot weather will break soon and we will get rain. We do not have heavily forested areas like California so forest fires are less of a problem. The UK is surrounded by sea so our canicules are moderated.
It looks as though this year the whole of the Northern Hemisphere is suffering from extremely high temperatures this is unusual.
The Iberian peninsular is sweltering. It looks as though the Sahara desert is travelling northwards. It is quite possible that Southern Spain will become a desert in the next two decades. It is also possible that parts of North Africa will become uninhabitable within the next two decades.
I fear that when temperatures return to "normal" humanity will forget about climate change and do nothing about it.
Do we have to suffer increasing temperatures each and every year before we turn our attention to reducing CO2 emissions? By then it will be too late.
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