European War

It is hard to believe that 100 years after the start of World War 1 and 70 years after the D-Day landings , Europe is still at war.

There is the potential for the Ukraine to descend into a full civil war. We Europeans still organise our politics at the point of the gun. Civilians still have to suffer as a direct result of the conflict or because their loved ones choose to fight. There is no need for the killing of either soldiers or civilians a negotiated solution can still be found for the Ukraine. The superpowers have a responsibility to organise this.

Of course there is a lot of discussion about the justification for World War 1 and whether the sacrifice was worthwhile.

From a purely nationalistic point of view, Britain and France and their allies had to fight to defend themselves and their neighbours. Many brave men died or were injured under the most dire of circumstances. Many brave men from the US fought and died for the freedom of France, Belgium and Britain. Russia fought in vain.

My own family lost uncles in the British Army and the Royal Navy. Most families in Britain and France were touched by the War. We must not forget that most families in Germany and Austria were also touched.

Millions of young men from both sides died fighting for their countries.

From a supranational point of view World War 1 was a disaster. The "colonies" of Britain and France were expected to contribute both men and material. Thousands of Australians and Canadians died to defend colonialism.

War became industrialised and mass slaughter became institutionalised. We also saw the beginning of the institutionalised killing of civilians. This led to the industrialised murder of civilians in World War 2.

World War 1 did little to resolve European conflict and this led directly to World War 2 where the carnage was even greater.

The human species has shown itself to be unable control the direction of its ingenuity. We do not have the emotional ability to either stop the killing or limit the means by which we conduct war. Killing has now descended into a type of push button frenzy. We can kill millions by the use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and we can kill  individuals by using a drone. We cannot avoid mistakes so civilians and non-combatants have to suffer too.

From a nationalistic point of view war has winners and losers and can be justified from the standpoint of defending the homeland. I ask all readers, however, to look at a bigger picture. From the point of view of our species in general war runs the risk of being a complete disaster which could destroy all of us.  We should make every effort to prevent war wherever it might arise - in the Ukraine, in Syria, in Afghanistan, the Sudan, Central Africa, Nigeria .......

Poking the Russian Bear

I have been to Russia and I have worked with many Russian people and some of them are now my friends. I have had many conversations about Russian politics and the relationship of Russia with the West.

Russian people want to be treated with respect and to be treated as equals; they expect nothing more or nothing less. The have an ingrained fear of war. They lost 20 million people in the second world war. They also have a fear of extreme right wing politicians.

The siege of St Petersburgh, or  Leningrad as it was called in the the second world war, and the battle of Volograd, formerly Stalingrad, proved that the Russian people would tolerate the most extreme privation to defend their Motherland. During the second world war the Russian people were also prepared to support a tyrant, Stalin, to defend their nation.

The battles of Stalingrad (August 1942 to February 1943)  and Kursk in July1943  saw the complete defeat of Hitler's armies in Russia. They were the turning point of the war in Europe. Without Russia's defeat of Germany in these battles the outcome of the war could have been completely different.

Of course, we should not denigrate the war efforts of the Western nations  to create second fronts in both Italy and France. But we should understand why the Russian people expect to be treated with respect by its former allies. We should also understand that the Russians are a formidable enemy and in a war  it would better to have them on our side than against us. Roosevelt, Churchill and De Gaulle understood the "realpolitik"  of this and were prepared to respect Stalin as a result.

Against this back drop, Western politicians should think again about what is happening in the Ukraine as they have badly miscalculated. They will not admit to this in public but behind the scenes they are probably looking for a way out.

The new government in the Ukraine is really not up to the task of handling the crisis that they have created for themselves with Western help. It looks as though the people of  Western Ukraine have no more stomach for a fight with Russia than the people of Britain, France and Germany or the US for that matter. If the Russians wanted to they could invade the whole of the Ukraine and takeover almost unopposed.

The quicker a negotiated solution is concluded the better. It looks as though Eastern Ukraine is lost to the West just like the Crimea. Why not try a confederation like Denmark and Greenland. Denmark is in the EU but Greenland, which is officially part of Denmark, is not. The people of Greenland have  political autonomy but they are happy, in the main, with their confederal relationship with Denmark.

The rest of the Ukraine does not have to be broken up after the secession of the Crimea but the Russians in Eastern Ukraine will need to be given cast iron guarantees for the security of their budding new "nations". This looks like the best that Western diplomacy can now achieve as there is no military option available and economic sanctions are considered to be an irritation rather than a deterrent.

It might be better to deal with a happy bear than to poke it with sticks which will be useless for defence if it decides to fight back.

Prejudice

A UKIP MP is back in the news again.  The Independent newspaper has quoted the  MEP Roger Helmer: "People should be able to dislike gay people like they do different types of tea"

I am not a homosexual but I see no reason to be prejudiced against  someone who is.Whether you like or dislike someone should not be compared to whether you like a particular tea or not; this is an absurd concept.

Homosexuality does not represent any sort of threat to our society. It is perfectly possible for the heterosexual majority to accommodate the social needs of everyone except the violent or child molesters. A homosexual is no more prone to indulge in cruel, criminal or discriminatory behaviour than anyone else.

Often it is not possible to tell whether someone is a homosexual or not. Sometimes, I have been very surprised when a friend or colleague has revealed their sexuality to me. Many homosexuals are simply unrecognisable because they act just like most other members of society and do not try to impose their views about sex on anyone else.

Why can we not let people who are harmless and who are good citizens get on with their lives without constant criticism or condemnation?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ukip-mep-roger-helmer-people-should-be-able-to-dislike-gay-people-like-they-do-different-types-of-tea-9300202.html

Sheffield half-marathon

The Sheffield half-marathon was a victory for common sense which seems to be totally lacking in today's world of Public Relations dominated activity. On the 10th of April the race was due to be run in Sheffield Yorkshire in the UK.  The race was cancelled the very last minute because water supplies for the runners failed to be delivered. The organisers thought it would be better to cancel the race for "health and safety reasons".

The runners themselves decided something different and chose to run despite the best efforts of the organisers to stop them. The police initially decided to unblock the route to motor traffic but changed their mind and allowed the unofficial race to go ahead as originally intended.

Water was supplied to the competitors who need it by spectators along the route.

The sports organisers were described as "risk averse" by a former sports' minister and I agree totally. Every sport has risks attached. Most of the 4,000 or so runners knew what those risks were and decided accordingly.

I am in my sixties and regularly run 10 to 12 k without having to drink any water whatsoever or take glucose tablets. I can run 10 k on a hot summer day and drink my fill after running. If I attempted to run 20 k, then I would probably need to drink some water along the way so I would take supplies with me. I often train on my own and there is a risk that I could trip over and break my leg or even push it too far and get heart tremors.

Most of the competitors for the Sheffield half marathon would have been a lot younger and fitter than me.

I minimise the risk of a heart tremor by not running too fast for my age and pacing myself to run at a constant and comfortable heart rate. I do not need a doctor to tell me what the risks are or how to minimise them. I cannot completely minimise the risk of tripping and breaking my leg but so be it.

If I had been there in Sheffield, I would have made sure that I had trained adequately for the event and would have ran the unofficial race along with the others. I would have stopped or slowed down if I needed to drink and no one from the onlookers had a bottle to give me. It would have been applied commonsense.

The unofficial race has now been run and the residents of Sheffield do not have to put up with the inconvenience of having their roads blocked again for a re-run.

The water suppliers claim that they had a contract where the organisers were obliged to pay for the water before the race was run but no funds were forthcoming. But, the best sort of PR for the water company would have been to supply the water and ask for the cash later. If ,all this is true, then someone has got it badly wrong and no amount of PR waffle will get those responsible of the hook.

At least both the police and the competitors knew how to do the right thing - it is just a small victory for common sense.


http://www.sheffieldmarathon.com/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-26938226
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26923501

http://www.sheffieldtelegraph.co.uk/news/local/call-to-change-sheffield-half-marathon-organisers-1-6555425

Crimea again

It may be illegal from a Ukrainian point of view and doubtful from an international legal viewpoint but Crimea is now effectively Russian territory. The people of the USA, Canada, Western Europe and the rest of the free world have no stomach to face down Russian irredentism; they prefer HD television sets and satellite broadcast football to confrontation.

In June 1963 President Kennedy visited Berlin after the completion of the wall separating West Berlin from East Berlin and uttered the words "Ich bin ein Berliner". This represented support for freedom and the willingness to stand up against tyranny using force if necessary. Can you imagine any Western politician uttering those words today? This is why JFK was regarded as a hero as he supported freedom not only for his own citizens but for others to. He is a politician who I admire for this reason.  We all have short memories.

Western politicians have gravely miscalculated Russia's reaction to the overthrow of President Yanukovich and the unrest in Kiev. The Russian government was prepared to shoot at hapless and helpless Greenpeace activists who posed no real threat to oil drilling operations. How did anyone think that the Kremlin would react to a perceived military threat to its political and economic interests in the Black Sea area.

NATO can only offer moral support to the new government in Kiev and the Kiev government has gravely miscalculated the willingness of Western governments to support them militarily. There will be no"no fly zone" or "boots on the ground" - just words and sanctions with no real teeth. It was plain to see what would happen - what about Georgian sovereignty when it choose to defy the Kremlin? We all have very short memories.

There is only one hope for the people of the rest of Ukraine. And, that is, that there will be completely free and honest new elections and that the people will be free to vote for a President and Parliament that genuinely represents all the people of the Ukraine. It would have been preferable if Russia had stayed its hand and waited until a new Ukrainian government was installed in Kiev. The Crimean people could have then been allowed time to reflect before they voted for independence.

If the people of the rest of the Ukraine vote for and support full democracy then the EU should support them economically but the EU should insist that all the economic support  falls into the hands of all the people.This is the only way that there can be true economic growth and development in the Ukraine. Perhaps the Crimea will then want to rejoin the Ukraine or a Ukrainian Commonwealth to share in this prosperity.

The EU can still insist on fair fresh elections and insist that ultra right-wing politicians are not allowed into government unless there is fair electoral support for such a situation. One of the fears of the Crimean people is that of the ultra-right.

I fear for the plight of Ukrainian soldiers left in the Crimea; they are effectively prisoners of war and they should be protected under the Geneva Convention and the European Human Rights Convention. Russia and Ukraine should negotiate their disarmament and their rapid repatriation to the Ukraine if they wish to go back home. There should be no retribution taken against any of these soldiers either in the Ukraine or the Crimea. I fear this will not happen and that they have now become pawns in a superpower struggle.

If the Ukraine or Russia choose to mistreat Ukrainian soldiers or prisoners then the West should take action with real economic sanctions; but a military option is not feasible. The Ukrainian military men and women left behind in the bases in Crimea are on their own and they are at the mercy of the Russians. The West is too weak to support them.

In the wake of President Putin's remarks yesterday about the break up of the Soviet Union I would not sleep so easily if I were an Estonian, Latvian or Lithuanian. Where would NATO draw the line? How much support do the newly independent Baltic states really have? Would the average Joe in the USA, France, Germany or Britain be prepared to fight or risk nuclear war for their independence? We need a new form of realpolitik and diplomacy. It might be better to have a more inclusive attitude to Russia and lock it into fresh trade, economic and political agreements that would be in its interests to maintain rather than break.

Ukrainian Gas

Gazprom, the Russian energy firm, has said that Ukraine owes them 2 billion USD for gas and is threatening to cut off supplies unless they are paid. This has happened before and the last time Russia cut off the gas to the Ukraine the government tapped into the gas line and "stole" supplies destined for Europe. This caused a  minor crisis. Lots of people have got very short memories.

The EU, US and the IMF are arranging 15 billion USD in loans for the Ukraine. Some of this money will no doubt be used to pay for Russian gas. So much for the financial sanctions aimed at Russia.

Russia can easily turn off  all the gas and make Europe and the Ukraine suffer. Russia can do without BMWs and Consumer goods but Europe cannot do without gas. Trade sanctions will hurt everyone but they will hurt Europe much more. They can break us without having to use military force.

This is why Russia will get away with its technically illegal "annexation" of the Crimea. There is simply nothing that the US or Europe can do about this situation. The Ukraine will not get the Crimea back unless unpalatable concessions are made to Russia. De facto,  the Crimea is lost;  it seems that only Germany understands the true meaning of Realpolitik.

The West has no choice but to accept a diplomatic solution. The Ukraine may be forced to elect politicians which are more acceptable to the Russians and this will mean that the far right, which the Russians fear so much, will have to be excluded. Someone's calculations have gone badly wrong. It is time for the West to rethink its "carrot and stick" strategy - more of the carrot and less of the stick. The stick is very thin.

The West no longer has the stomach to face down the Russians as John Kennedy did. The West's weakness has been cruelly exposed and it might have been better to have done nothing in the case of Ukraine and leave the showdown for another day. Then, just hope that another crisis about the borders of NATO does not arise again.

Is it not time for Russia to show some true statesmanship and some generosity and make some concessions? A little bit of altruism helps when you hold all of the levers of power. A trade agreement between Europe, Ukraine and Russia might be to everyone's mutual benefit and this could easily be based on the EEA model. It is not too late. Free trade and the free movement of people across Europe and the Asian part of Russia could be the key to a peaceful and prosperous future for us all.

UKRAINE Crisis

The Ukrainian people were naive if ever they thought that Russia would not intervene to maintain its influence in the Crimea. They are also naive if they think that that Western nations will give them direct military help in the form of troops, air strikes or naval operations. Western governments and their electorates have no stomach for this. The Ukraine is on its own as far as military action is concerned.

Europe will also be reluctant to enter into a trade war with Russia as the European economies as so reliant on Russian oil and gas. All the high cards are in Russia's hands.

The Western powers have a habit of backing the wrong politicians when they try to advance democracy in other countries.  General Noriega of Panama comes to mind - along with the Shah of Iran and Pinochet etc.

It is time that the Western powers stood up for democracy wherever it has the support of the majority of the people. They expect nothing less from a US President,  a French President or a Germany Chancellor and a British Prime Minister.

It is almost as if democracy can only belong to an exclusive club. How many votes would the current leaders of the Ukraine get in an election in Germany or France? I think that French and German voters would get the impression that some of the current leaders of the Ukraine like the deposed president are unfit for public office. The Ukrainian people deserve better.

Instead of the governments of the West and Russia throwing accusations and counter accusations at each other, would it not be better if they sat down and negotiated a solution? A genuine constitution could easily be established in  the Ukraine with the help of UN institutions.

This constitution could provide for the pluralistic and regional political rights of all of the people of the Ukraine.  It could also provide for political parties which encourage membership from all the various cultural groups which make up Ukrainian society - just like the Conservative, Liberal and Labour parties do in the UK.

The constitution should also allow for the impeachment of the President if he misbehaves. A democratically elected president or constitutional monarch or head of state should never be overthrown by violence. All government ministers should either be appointed by election or their appointments approved by a democratically elected parliament.

Putin has said he agrees that the Ukraine should be free to determine its own destiny democratically. Let us see him put his money where his mouth is and allow John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov to negotiate a deal backed by the US President. This deal should take into account real democracy for the Ukraine and the interests of its neighbours.

There is nothing to prevent the Ukraine from being a neutral state which should be allowed to make trade agreements with the EU - just like Switzerland. The Ukraine could also negotiate trade agreements with Russia. Such a deal would be to the benefit to us all. It is time to stop the posturing and seek a diplomatic solution.

What is good for France, The USA, Germany and the UK should be also be good for the Ukraine. Let the Ukrainian people freely select leaders who have the genuine interests of all the people at heart. That is why there were protests on the streets in the first place.