Brexit again

The leaked government report forecasting the drop in performance of the post Brexit economy makes grim reading. The highlights of the report are shown below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42977967. 

Leave proponents can say what they like about the forecasts which "ceteris paribus" are gloomy. Even if we stay in the single market tens of billions of pounds will be lost to the exchequer. In the event of a Brexit without a deal, on average 8% will be wiped off UK GDP over a 15 year period. For the North East the situation will be worse, at 16%.

Of course, forecasts can be incorrect especially if mitigation is initiated. The Bank of England mitigated the gloomy effects of Brexit immediately after the referendum by reducing interest rates and adding liquidity to the economy to promote consumer spending and economic growth. Payback time will be arriving soon.

Leave proponents have not produced convincing counter arguments to the government report based on evidence. Neither have they produced convincing evidence for their claims that so called global free trade on WTO terms will produce strong economic growth. They have produced no evidence that there will be mitigation of the detrimental effects of leaving the EU.

None of this will cut any ice with the electorate.

As for taking back control, when we leave the EU we will be replacing controls for international driving with controls from a UN Convention. The government is taking legal and contingency steps to ratify the following:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/679994/MS1.2018_CM9570__Convention_on_Road_Traffic_WEB.pdf

Far from reducing red tape it will increase it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers

Similarly, we shall replacing one set of rules for another regarding trade. We have less control over WTO rules than we have over the rule making process of the EU. When we leave the EU everything trading rule that we abide by globally will be set by someone else.

Most of what the Leave campaign said about the UK's economic prospects was wishful thinking based on little or weak evidence.

We will still be free to trade with China. British voters, however, might like to ask themselves why Germany is able to export,to China, five times the value of goods and services than Britain? What makes voters think that Britain will better placed to compete with the likes of Germany in international markets. Leaving the EU will not make our competitors go away. If we leave the EU we will lose our competitive edge over exporters to the market that we have just left. We will be competing against the likes of the USA, China, Japan and South Korea who will all be trying to take away our market share. The USA, China, Japan and South Korea could not care less about our balance of payments position - why should they?

The EU negotiated good deals with South Korea, Canada and Japan on our behalf. The Department of Trade will have to renegotiate all of our free trade deals, but it is now receiving criticism from the National Audit office about its efficiency to do this.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/department-international-trade-brexit-talks-11909044

It is time to stop dreaming  about taking back control and how easy it will be to trade as "Global Britain". Wake up before hard reality hits you: it is not too late to change your mind. You voted leave because you did not like globalisation; "Global Britain" is about do give you what you were afraid of , in the first place, but with a vengeance.