The Ukrainian people were naive if ever they thought that Russia would not intervene to maintain its influence in the Crimea. They are also naive if they think that that Western nations will give them direct military help in the form of troops, air strikes or naval operations. Western governments and their electorates have no stomach for this. The Ukraine is on its own as far as military action is concerned.
Europe will also be reluctant to enter into a trade war with Russia as the European economies as so reliant on Russian oil and gas. All the high cards are in Russia's hands.
The Western powers have a habit of backing the wrong politicians when they try to advance democracy in other countries. General Noriega of Panama comes to mind - along with the Shah of Iran and Pinochet etc.
It is time that the Western powers stood up for democracy wherever it has the support of the majority of the people. They expect nothing less from a US President, a French President or a Germany Chancellor and a British Prime Minister.
It is almost as if democracy can only belong to an exclusive club. How many votes would the current leaders of the Ukraine get in an election in Germany or France? I think that French and German voters would get the impression that some of the current leaders of the Ukraine like the deposed president are unfit for public office. The Ukrainian people deserve better.
Instead of the governments of the West and Russia throwing accusations and counter accusations at each other, would it not be better if they sat down and negotiated a solution? A genuine constitution could easily be established in the Ukraine with the help of UN institutions.
This constitution could provide for the pluralistic and regional political rights of all of the people of the Ukraine. It could also provide for political parties which encourage membership from all the various cultural groups which make up Ukrainian society - just like the Conservative, Liberal and Labour parties do in the UK.
The constitution should also allow for the impeachment of the President if he misbehaves. A democratically elected president or constitutional monarch or head of state should never be overthrown by violence. All government ministers should either be appointed by election or their appointments approved by a democratically elected parliament.
Putin has said he agrees that the Ukraine should be free to determine its own destiny democratically. Let us see him put his money where his mouth is and allow John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov to negotiate a deal backed by the US President. This deal should take into account real democracy for the Ukraine and the interests of its neighbours.
There is nothing to prevent the Ukraine from being a neutral state which should be allowed to make trade agreements with the EU - just like Switzerland. The Ukraine could also negotiate trade agreements with Russia. Such a deal would be to the benefit to us all. It is time to stop the posturing and seek a diplomatic solution.
What is good for France, The USA, Germany and the UK should be also be good for the Ukraine. Let the Ukrainian people freely select leaders who have the genuine interests of all the people at heart. That is why there were protests on the streets in the first place.
A place where sceptics can exchange their views
Tuesday, 4 March 2014
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