Crimea again

It may be illegal from a Ukrainian point of view and doubtful from an international legal viewpoint but Crimea is now effectively Russian territory. The people of the USA, Canada, Western Europe and the rest of the free world have no stomach to face down Russian irredentism; they prefer HD television sets and satellite broadcast football to confrontation.

In June 1963 President Kennedy visited Berlin after the completion of the wall separating West Berlin from East Berlin and uttered the words "Ich bin ein Berliner". This represented support for freedom and the willingness to stand up against tyranny using force if necessary. Can you imagine any Western politician uttering those words today? This is why JFK was regarded as a hero as he supported freedom not only for his own citizens but for others to. He is a politician who I admire for this reason.  We all have short memories.

Western politicians have gravely miscalculated Russia's reaction to the overthrow of President Yanukovich and the unrest in Kiev. The Russian government was prepared to shoot at hapless and helpless Greenpeace activists who posed no real threat to oil drilling operations. How did anyone think that the Kremlin would react to a perceived military threat to its political and economic interests in the Black Sea area.

NATO can only offer moral support to the new government in Kiev and the Kiev government has gravely miscalculated the willingness of Western governments to support them militarily. There will be no"no fly zone" or "boots on the ground" - just words and sanctions with no real teeth. It was plain to see what would happen - what about Georgian sovereignty when it choose to defy the Kremlin? We all have very short memories.

There is only one hope for the people of the rest of Ukraine. And, that is, that there will be completely free and honest new elections and that the people will be free to vote for a President and Parliament that genuinely represents all the people of the Ukraine. It would have been preferable if Russia had stayed its hand and waited until a new Ukrainian government was installed in Kiev. The Crimean people could have then been allowed time to reflect before they voted for independence.

If the people of the rest of the Ukraine vote for and support full democracy then the EU should support them economically but the EU should insist that all the economic support  falls into the hands of all the people.This is the only way that there can be true economic growth and development in the Ukraine. Perhaps the Crimea will then want to rejoin the Ukraine or a Ukrainian Commonwealth to share in this prosperity.

The EU can still insist on fair fresh elections and insist that ultra right-wing politicians are not allowed into government unless there is fair electoral support for such a situation. One of the fears of the Crimean people is that of the ultra-right.

I fear for the plight of Ukrainian soldiers left in the Crimea; they are effectively prisoners of war and they should be protected under the Geneva Convention and the European Human Rights Convention. Russia and Ukraine should negotiate their disarmament and their rapid repatriation to the Ukraine if they wish to go back home. There should be no retribution taken against any of these soldiers either in the Ukraine or the Crimea. I fear this will not happen and that they have now become pawns in a superpower struggle.

If the Ukraine or Russia choose to mistreat Ukrainian soldiers or prisoners then the West should take action with real economic sanctions; but a military option is not feasible. The Ukrainian military men and women left behind in the bases in Crimea are on their own and they are at the mercy of the Russians. The West is too weak to support them.

In the wake of President Putin's remarks yesterday about the break up of the Soviet Union I would not sleep so easily if I were an Estonian, Latvian or Lithuanian. Where would NATO draw the line? How much support do the newly independent Baltic states really have? Would the average Joe in the USA, France, Germany or Britain be prepared to fight or risk nuclear war for their independence? We need a new form of realpolitik and diplomacy. It might be better to have a more inclusive attitude to Russia and lock it into fresh trade, economic and political agreements that would be in its interests to maintain rather than break.