It may be illegal from a Ukrainian point of view and doubtful from an international legal viewpoint but Crimea is now effectively Russian territory. The people of the USA, Canada, Western Europe and the rest of the free world have no stomach to face down Russian irredentism; they prefer HD television sets and satellite broadcast football to confrontation.
In June 1963 President Kennedy visited Berlin after the completion of the wall separating West Berlin from East Berlin and uttered the words "Ich bin ein Berliner". This represented support for freedom and the willingness to stand up against tyranny using force if necessary. Can you imagine any Western politician uttering those words today? This is why JFK was regarded as a hero as he supported freedom not only for his own citizens but for others to. He is a politician who I admire for this reason. We all have short memories.
Western politicians have gravely miscalculated Russia's reaction to the overthrow of President Yanukovich and the unrest in Kiev. The Russian government was prepared to shoot at hapless and helpless Greenpeace activists who posed no real threat to oil drilling operations. How did anyone think that the Kremlin would react to a perceived military threat to its political and economic interests in the Black Sea area.
NATO can only offer moral support to the new government in Kiev and the Kiev government has gravely miscalculated the willingness of Western governments to support them militarily. There will be no"no fly zone" or "boots on the ground" - just words and sanctions with no real teeth. It was plain to see what would happen - what about Georgian sovereignty when it choose to defy the Kremlin? We all have very short memories.
There is only one hope for the people of the rest of Ukraine. And, that is, that there will be completely free and honest new elections and that the people will be free to vote for a President and Parliament that genuinely represents all the people of the Ukraine. It would have been preferable if Russia had stayed its hand and waited until a new Ukrainian government was installed in Kiev. The Crimean people could have then been allowed time to reflect before they voted for independence.
If the people of the rest of the Ukraine vote for and support full democracy then the EU should support them economically but the EU should insist that all the economic support falls into the hands of all the people.This is the only way that there can be true economic growth and development in the Ukraine. Perhaps the Crimea will then want to rejoin the Ukraine or a Ukrainian Commonwealth to share in this prosperity.
The EU can still insist on fair fresh elections and insist that ultra right-wing politicians are not allowed into government unless there is fair electoral support for such a situation. One of the fears of the Crimean people is that of the ultra-right.
I fear for the plight of Ukrainian soldiers left in the Crimea; they are effectively prisoners of war and they should be protected under the Geneva Convention and the European Human Rights Convention. Russia and Ukraine should negotiate their disarmament and their rapid repatriation to the Ukraine if they wish to go back home. There should be no retribution taken against any of these soldiers either in the Ukraine or the Crimea. I fear this will not happen and that they have now become pawns in a superpower struggle.
If the Ukraine or Russia choose to mistreat Ukrainian soldiers or prisoners then the West should take action with real economic sanctions; but a military option is not feasible. The Ukrainian military men and women left behind in the bases in Crimea are on their own and they are at the mercy of the Russians. The West is too weak to support them.
In the wake of President Putin's remarks yesterday about the break up of the Soviet Union I would not sleep so easily if I were an Estonian, Latvian or Lithuanian. Where would NATO draw the line? How much support do the newly independent Baltic states really have? Would the average Joe in the USA, France, Germany or Britain be prepared to fight or risk nuclear war for their independence? We need a new form of realpolitik and diplomacy. It might be better to have a more inclusive attitude to Russia and lock it into fresh trade, economic and political agreements that would be in its interests to maintain rather than break.
Wednesday, 19 March 2014
Friday, 7 March 2014
Ukrainian Gas
Gazprom, the Russian energy firm, has said that Ukraine owes them 2 billion USD for gas and is threatening to cut off supplies unless they are paid. This has happened before and the last time Russia cut off the gas to the Ukraine the government tapped into the gas line and "stole" supplies destined for Europe. This caused a minor crisis. Lots of people have got very short memories.
The EU, US and the IMF are arranging 15 billion USD in loans for the Ukraine. Some of this money will no doubt be used to pay for Russian gas. So much for the financial sanctions aimed at Russia.
Russia can easily turn off all the gas and make Europe and the Ukraine suffer. Russia can do without BMWs and Consumer goods but Europe cannot do without gas. Trade sanctions will hurt everyone but they will hurt Europe much more. They can break us without having to use military force.
This is why Russia will get away with its technically illegal "annexation" of the Crimea. There is simply nothing that the US or Europe can do about this situation. The Ukraine will not get the Crimea back unless unpalatable concessions are made to Russia. De facto, the Crimea is lost; it seems that only Germany understands the true meaning of Realpolitik.
The West has no choice but to accept a diplomatic solution. The Ukraine may be forced to elect politicians which are more acceptable to the Russians and this will mean that the far right, which the Russians fear so much, will have to be excluded. Someone's calculations have gone badly wrong. It is time for the West to rethink its "carrot and stick" strategy - more of the carrot and less of the stick. The stick is very thin.
The West no longer has the stomach to face down the Russians as John Kennedy did. The West's weakness has been cruelly exposed and it might have been better to have done nothing in the case of Ukraine and leave the showdown for another day. Then, just hope that another crisis about the borders of NATO does not arise again.
Is it not time for Russia to show some true statesmanship and some generosity and make some concessions? A little bit of altruism helps when you hold all of the levers of power. A trade agreement between Europe, Ukraine and Russia might be to everyone's mutual benefit and this could easily be based on the EEA model. It is not too late. Free trade and the free movement of people across Europe and the Asian part of Russia could be the key to a peaceful and prosperous future for us all.
The EU, US and the IMF are arranging 15 billion USD in loans for the Ukraine. Some of this money will no doubt be used to pay for Russian gas. So much for the financial sanctions aimed at Russia.
Russia can easily turn off all the gas and make Europe and the Ukraine suffer. Russia can do without BMWs and Consumer goods but Europe cannot do without gas. Trade sanctions will hurt everyone but they will hurt Europe much more. They can break us without having to use military force.
This is why Russia will get away with its technically illegal "annexation" of the Crimea. There is simply nothing that the US or Europe can do about this situation. The Ukraine will not get the Crimea back unless unpalatable concessions are made to Russia. De facto, the Crimea is lost; it seems that only Germany understands the true meaning of Realpolitik.
The West has no choice but to accept a diplomatic solution. The Ukraine may be forced to elect politicians which are more acceptable to the Russians and this will mean that the far right, which the Russians fear so much, will have to be excluded. Someone's calculations have gone badly wrong. It is time for the West to rethink its "carrot and stick" strategy - more of the carrot and less of the stick. The stick is very thin.
The West no longer has the stomach to face down the Russians as John Kennedy did. The West's weakness has been cruelly exposed and it might have been better to have done nothing in the case of Ukraine and leave the showdown for another day. Then, just hope that another crisis about the borders of NATO does not arise again.
Is it not time for Russia to show some true statesmanship and some generosity and make some concessions? A little bit of altruism helps when you hold all of the levers of power. A trade agreement between Europe, Ukraine and Russia might be to everyone's mutual benefit and this could easily be based on the EEA model. It is not too late. Free trade and the free movement of people across Europe and the Asian part of Russia could be the key to a peaceful and prosperous future for us all.
Tuesday, 4 March 2014
UKRAINE Crisis
The Ukrainian people were naive if ever they thought that Russia would not intervene to maintain its influence in the Crimea. They are also naive if they think that that Western nations will give them direct military help in the form of troops, air strikes or naval operations. Western governments and their electorates have no stomach for this. The Ukraine is on its own as far as military action is concerned.
Europe will also be reluctant to enter into a trade war with Russia as the European economies as so reliant on Russian oil and gas. All the high cards are in Russia's hands.
The Western powers have a habit of backing the wrong politicians when they try to advance democracy in other countries. General Noriega of Panama comes to mind - along with the Shah of Iran and Pinochet etc.
It is time that the Western powers stood up for democracy wherever it has the support of the majority of the people. They expect nothing less from a US President, a French President or a Germany Chancellor and a British Prime Minister.
It is almost as if democracy can only belong to an exclusive club. How many votes would the current leaders of the Ukraine get in an election in Germany or France? I think that French and German voters would get the impression that some of the current leaders of the Ukraine like the deposed president are unfit for public office. The Ukrainian people deserve better.
Instead of the governments of the West and Russia throwing accusations and counter accusations at each other, would it not be better if they sat down and negotiated a solution? A genuine constitution could easily be established in the Ukraine with the help of UN institutions.
This constitution could provide for the pluralistic and regional political rights of all of the people of the Ukraine. It could also provide for political parties which encourage membership from all the various cultural groups which make up Ukrainian society - just like the Conservative, Liberal and Labour parties do in the UK.
The constitution should also allow for the impeachment of the President if he misbehaves. A democratically elected president or constitutional monarch or head of state should never be overthrown by violence. All government ministers should either be appointed by election or their appointments approved by a democratically elected parliament.
Putin has said he agrees that the Ukraine should be free to determine its own destiny democratically. Let us see him put his money where his mouth is and allow John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov to negotiate a deal backed by the US President. This deal should take into account real democracy for the Ukraine and the interests of its neighbours.
There is nothing to prevent the Ukraine from being a neutral state which should be allowed to make trade agreements with the EU - just like Switzerland. The Ukraine could also negotiate trade agreements with Russia. Such a deal would be to the benefit to us all. It is time to stop the posturing and seek a diplomatic solution.
What is good for France, The USA, Germany and the UK should be also be good for the Ukraine. Let the Ukrainian people freely select leaders who have the genuine interests of all the people at heart. That is why there were protests on the streets in the first place.
Europe will also be reluctant to enter into a trade war with Russia as the European economies as so reliant on Russian oil and gas. All the high cards are in Russia's hands.
The Western powers have a habit of backing the wrong politicians when they try to advance democracy in other countries. General Noriega of Panama comes to mind - along with the Shah of Iran and Pinochet etc.
It is time that the Western powers stood up for democracy wherever it has the support of the majority of the people. They expect nothing less from a US President, a French President or a Germany Chancellor and a British Prime Minister.
It is almost as if democracy can only belong to an exclusive club. How many votes would the current leaders of the Ukraine get in an election in Germany or France? I think that French and German voters would get the impression that some of the current leaders of the Ukraine like the deposed president are unfit for public office. The Ukrainian people deserve better.
Instead of the governments of the West and Russia throwing accusations and counter accusations at each other, would it not be better if they sat down and negotiated a solution? A genuine constitution could easily be established in the Ukraine with the help of UN institutions.
This constitution could provide for the pluralistic and regional political rights of all of the people of the Ukraine. It could also provide for political parties which encourage membership from all the various cultural groups which make up Ukrainian society - just like the Conservative, Liberal and Labour parties do in the UK.
The constitution should also allow for the impeachment of the President if he misbehaves. A democratically elected president or constitutional monarch or head of state should never be overthrown by violence. All government ministers should either be appointed by election or their appointments approved by a democratically elected parliament.
Putin has said he agrees that the Ukraine should be free to determine its own destiny democratically. Let us see him put his money where his mouth is and allow John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov to negotiate a deal backed by the US President. This deal should take into account real democracy for the Ukraine and the interests of its neighbours.
There is nothing to prevent the Ukraine from being a neutral state which should be allowed to make trade agreements with the EU - just like Switzerland. The Ukraine could also negotiate trade agreements with Russia. Such a deal would be to the benefit to us all. It is time to stop the posturing and seek a diplomatic solution.
What is good for France, The USA, Germany and the UK should be also be good for the Ukraine. Let the Ukrainian people freely select leaders who have the genuine interests of all the people at heart. That is why there were protests on the streets in the first place.
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