Down to Earth

I have just read Hamish McRae’s article about the travel crisis resulting from the volcanic ash problem, in “The Independent”. I agree with nearly everything he says:
How reliant we have become on Air transport
Foreign Travel being a great equaliser
“Just in Time” systems making us more vulnerable to disruption by natural events
Land based travel systems being more “disorganised”
A change of thinking might help resolve problems that we have built into our economic models etc.
Where I disagree with him is; how we are going to resolve a solution. No doubt the wind direction will change and all the problems resulting from the air travel crisis will be forgotten; until the next time.
The 9/11 tragedy and crisis gave the airlines an opportunity to develop contingency plans to cater for stranded travellers and they did not. History, and the lessons which can be learnt from it, was quickly forgotten.
Even though less modern and less organised land based travel systems are slower they eventually will get you to your destination.
As per usual, some elements of the press are stirring up the crisis and are beginning to criticise the Met Office and Europe etc. Airline industry bosses are criticising the computer models used to predict where the ash cloud could be. Sensibly, because the computer models are not and cannot be perfect the authorities are erring on the side of caution. Equally, actual observations cannot be perfect as the volcano and the weather are unpredictable and cannot be manipulated to adhere to the human desire for certainty. The captains of industry pride themselves on being able to run business in the face of uncertainty, but this time air industry bosses are stumped and I feel that they are looking for a change of words to allow business as usual. The facts should dictate action. All human activity involves risk, I would be happy to fly if I knew that the Captain of the aircraft was allowed to make his own risk assessment without commercial pressure or media opinion swaying the decision. If an airliner falls out of the sky, as a result of the misinterpretation or dismissal of the facts, the consequences could be dreadful, even if the risk is very small that an accident will occur. This crisis has lasted less than a week so the authorities are correct not to panic.

This mini-crisis, and the way we are responding, epitomises our approach to life and business in general. The recent economic crisis indicates that the world is becoming over sophisticated. The super-organised system of using computer models to predict economic activity and financial outcomes has become unstable. We too often ignore the facts before our eyes. We should beware that our society could become unmanageable as greater numbers of people indulge, increasingly, in complex economic activity which strains the resources of the world. The world now operates on a “just in time “basis. We may not have time to think our way out of the next crisis even a minor one.
Before, the changes to our way of thinking happen, we shall need to be shocked by a really big crisis, an even bigger one than the last economic debacle, by then it might be too late to recover. I hope Hamish’s optimism is well founded.