I fear that the war in Ukraine will not be resolved quickly or satisfactorily. It is clear that Russia's invasion is illegal and breaks Geneva and UN conventions, but this cuts no ice. Both sides in the war have broken the Minsk convention, and this cuts no ice too.
Both sides are fighting themselves to a standstill, but it is highly unlikely that Ukraine can recover its lost territory by military means without the help of Nato who would need to provide direct military assistance with boots on the ground. Direct Nato intervention runs the risk of the conflict descending into all out war between Russia and its allies and Nato, and this would be unthinkable.
Ukraine might have to agree to a negotiated settlement which would result in them losing "sovereignty" over the the Donbas and Crimea, not that they had much control over these regions before the full war started.
To achieve a negotiated settlement Ukraine would demand that Nato would guarantee the "sovereignty" of the remaining regions of their country, but Russia may not agree to this.
There is considerable opposition, within the nationalist community, to Ukraine ceding territory, and this could lead lead to post war political instability. If Nato is seen to have deserted Ukraine then this too could lead to instability too. Nato has armed Ukraine with ultra-modern weaponry and there could be a danger that these weapons could be turned against the alliance.
All in all it is not a good prospect. It might have been better if both sides had adhered to the Minsk protocols and negotiated a settlement. But this was too much to hope for. One thing is certain, if the crisis leads to a war between Nato and Russia then everyone will lose. Russia will have laid claim to a territory that has been destroyed and Ukraine will have lost thousands of lives to recover territory that has been wiped clean. Europe, including Russia, will see hundreds of thousands of deaths from a third world war, if not millions: and so could the US. Zelensky and Putin should watch their steps carefully. European leaders should not be banging the drum for war, they should be banging the drum for a negotiated peace. The real politik of the situation is that Biden and Putin will decide.
I have had a long and happy life which I don't want to end under a mushroom cloud. Do you? You are probably much younger than me, you, the European or American citizen, deserve to live out your lives in peace.
The appeal to Biden and Putin is simply: negotiate an acceptable peace and quickly
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