British Influence

 It is my opinion that the people who will feel the worse effects of Brexit will be British diplomats and senior politicians. The USA used the UK as a bridge with which to influence the EU. This connexion is now gone. The Republic of Ireland will now take Britain's place as the anglophone intermediary between the US and the EU. This will be to the chagrin of British diplomats whose voice will no longer be heard as strongly in the corridors of power.

Over the next 30 or so years the economic powers of the US, Germany, France and the UK will more than likely decline. China, India  and Russia will more than likely be on the rise. The USA and the Western European states share so many values that they will seek to become closer both politically and economically to offset the military and economic influence of China, Russia and India. The US and the  EU will probably ask Japan to join them. Britain will be forced by circumstances to follow suite  but because it is no longer a member of the EU Council, its influence will be considerably diminished. The USA will show decreasing reliance on the UK. Britain will be shut out from the new bodies which will seek to dominate world politics and economic activity. Britain will suffer the humiliation of the Republic of Ireland and other small European states having more influence. If Scotland leaves the UK to join the EU then it too will become more influential than what's left of the UK. Scotland will become another anglophone link to the EU for the US.

Britain will have to rely much more on the Entente Cordiale with France to retain some sort of influence in Europe. Britain will not have the power to upset France too much. Britain will feel left out; so the political elite will be determined to find ways to get back into to Europe and persuade its citizens to do so. Britain will then have to persuade the EU to let it rejoin the EU council of ministers in some sort of way. Britain will  be confronted by the "real politik" of assuming its place in the European family of nations by rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union or even the EU itself.

Britain's economic future relies upon  a strategic alliance with the EU, and to be cut off from European decision making will be more damaging than leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union - in the long run. The politicians who organised Brexit know this, and if they cannot find a way of achieving a strong connexion with the EU,the US and Japan, to protect Britain's economic, political, diplomatic and military future, then they will be replaced by an increasingly worried public. British politicians will lament their lack of power and influence and so will the nation. The sooner British politicians set about repairing the humiliation, and the political and diplomatic damage of Brexit the better.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html#keyprojections

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10-economies-2030/