Cop26 cop out

 The press releases coming out of the COP26 climate conferences make it feel like the climate crisis is over and that we can all enjoy the 1.5 degree centigrade rise in average global temperatures by 2050. Far from it there have only been pledges and there really is no action plan.

The COP26 climate conference has already failed; we need to reverse global waring and quickly. The world's average temperature has risen by 1.1 degrees centigrade since the start of the industrial revolution , we are now starting to see the results with our very own eyes. There is now no doubt that the intense forest fires across Australia , California and Europe in recent years are the result of global warming. So have the floods in the Indian sub-continent, China and Europe. Now the world is starting to see the direct result of climate induced famine in Madagascar.  An extra 0.5 degrees of global warming will make matters worse not better.

Cop26 has not tackled the taboo subject of over population which is a driver of both global warming and species extinction.

James Hansen the famous client scientist warned about dangers of climate change to the US congress in 1988, and all his concerns have become true.  Since, 1988 the world has done precious little to curb climate change, and global warming has only got worse. Lets hope that Cop26 is not going to be the cop out that I fear it will be. After listening to James Hansen's presentation back in 1988, I did not believe that the world would become threatened in my lifetime, and now I can hardly believe believe that the warnings have become true, but they have: this is a rather metaphorically chilling thought.

You can easily buy James Hansen's book, from 2011, "The Storms Of My Grandchildren" here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Storms-My-Grandchildren-Catastrophe-Humanity/dp/1408807467

Social Media madness

 I rather agree with this opinion piece in the Independent today from Sean O'Grady. https://www.independent.co.uk/author/sean-ogrady. I think that there is only a tenuous link between hate speech on the internet and political assassinations. However, I would also agree that research should be done as to what influence that hate speech and abuse on the internet has on political and other forms of violence.

The problem with the internet is anything can say anything they like when it comes to abuse and threatening language nd get away with it. This abuse can come directly into your house; unhindered. If I invite someone into my home they come on the condition that they do not use hate speech or abusive language in front of anybody. I can control the situation. I can't easily control what comes into my house by way of the internet and neither can anybody else.

Political violence has always been on the agenda for the feeble minded,  the dis-affected or the tyrant. Tyrants throughout history did not need the internet to induce political violence. Airey Neave and Ian Gow were two British politicians who were murdered, in recent times, before the internet existed as a public means of communication;  their murders were organised by pen and paper and word of mouth assassins. The internet, however, has added a new dimension to how political and other murders can be organised by anonymous propogandists. The internet needs to have no pen and paper audit trail or even word of mouth inspiration. The internet is the perfect tool tool to allow malignant politically motivated conspirators to influence the feeble minded or mentally deranged to commit murder.

There is a case for social media companies to regulate themselves, they can easily scan their communications, by computer software,  to look for hate speech and violent or abusive language or images; instantaneously. They can also watch out for those political propagandists who are attempting to influence followers to commit murders or terrorist crimes. The perpetrators could be warned that their activities are being monitored, and if they persist then their hate speech will be reported to the police or the secret services. I do not allow such abuse to be disseminated in my house, so why should "Big Tech Companies" allow it on their social media sites. This will not be an affront to free speech as political and other opinions can still be expressed. In fact, it might improve the quality of the  expression of opinions, as people will have to think more carefully before they open their mouths.

No-one deserves to be murdered for their political views especially the two recent MP-victims, Jo Cox and  Sir David Amess. Both these politicians were in different ways and with different views trying to make life better for their constituents. They were both innocent and no-one had the right to take their lives or induce others to do so. No-one has the right to abuse someone or use hate speech on-line or anywhere else for that matter. Social media sites have the power to stop this, and they should  do it before the public demands heavy handed legislation to regulate their activities. 

Immigration madness

 Britons who have married foreign spouses are experiencing difficulties obtaining permanent residence status for their families when they return from abroad to the UK. These problems have recently come to light, when Britons try to return to the UK from EEA countries, even though they are in genuine partnerships with their legal spouse.  This means that some families have to migrate separately whilst waiting for the paperwork to clear. It has resulted in disruption to work and school life and has meant that some families have not been able to return to the UK at all.

This problem has only come to the fore because of Brexit, but formerly it was experienced by some Britons  who had married  Americans, Moroccans, Thailanders and Indians etc., when the British spouse could not prove that they were  exercising EU free movement rights. It is time for the law to be changed to allow Britons who have foreign families to return with them to the UK on the basis of permanent residence. The returning family members should then be given British citizenship. The same should be said for British people who form legal and genuine partnerships with foreigners, within the UK. The genuine and legal spouse and children should then be deemed to be British. This has nearly always been the case until recent Immigration acts.

The British people have long held the view that if someone marries a Briton then they are British too. Close families should not be separated or denied their human right to a family life, this is one of the core rights granted  to citizens by membership of the EU, and Brexit should not have affected this. I am not expecting any movement on this soon, given the way that successive Labour and Conservative governments have treated the Windrush generation and their successors.

 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/14/no-queue-jumping-for-britons-seeking-to-return-to-uk-with-eu-spouses

https://www.freemovement.org.uk/surinder-singh-immigration-route/

It's the Northern Ireland protocol, let's not show ourselves to be stupid

The British government has badly mis-calculated, its foreign policy. It has allowed itself to be sidelined by Brexit. It has given way to the clamour of a substantial minority of the British public for their nation to act with complete independence when it is not possible to do so. Brexit is a severe diplomatic problem. The UK has upset the European Union, China and the USA. Brexit was always a stupid idea which will not have any long term benefit for our country. 

There is no point upsetting the US by not implementing the Northern Ireland protocol in its entirety. The US helped Britain to organise the peace in the province. It is not just the US president who supports the protocol but both sides of Congress too. Equally, there is no point in upsetting the EU over this issue. Britain could end up friendless, diminished and powerless to influence world events, and this would be a great shame.

Citizens who truly support their country should see the need not to upset their best friends. They should also be realistic about what their country can and cannot do. Britain is no longer a world power that can act alone. It needs allies and friends to work with. It should have been glad to share its sovereignty with its closest neighbours in Europe. We need to do this for our economy, our peace and security and to manage the climate crisis. One day the electorate of Britain will see that Brexit was a mistake. If we offend our neighbours they might not let us rejoin the club. We also upset the US at our peril, it is time for a change of attitude. Britain is a much better country when it gets involved with and co-operates with its greatest friends.

Afghanistan and Global Britain

 The British failed to conquer Afghanistan, so did the Russians and now the Americans. There are some lessons to be learnt here. It is clear that the Taliban were able to  to bide their time, and were able to take conquer Afghanistan not by just the use of force, but with guile, diplomacy and political nous. They must also, have enjoyed popular support. They fooled the Americans who initially supported them when they fought against the Russian invasion in the 1990s. The Americans gave them modern arms and plenty of money. They then turned the tables on the Americans who deposed them from power after 9/11. The might of America has been defeated and American sovereignty has been diminished after an humiliating defeat. Britain tagged along with the American invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11: it hardly had a choice as American sovereignty is much more powerful than British sovereignty.

When America decided to pull out Britain had no choice but to follow. Britain is now dependent upon America to secure Kabul Airport so that British citizens can be evacuated along with some but not all of the Afghanis who helped the British cause. It should be noted that France and Germany and other  Western states are able, with the help of the Americans, to  evacuate their citizens without sending troops. The British contingent of troops are insufficient to secure the Airport alone. It is a sad fact that Britain cannot act alone to save anyone if the Taliban insist on taking back the Airport. Real Politics have hit Britain in the face  to show the British people that "Global Britain" is an illusion and absolute sovereignty is another illusion.

In the British parliament, yesterday , the government came in for intense criticism from not doing enough, but Britain has neither the power or influence to alter the decision to retreat: but what could it do? The British government was condemned for doing nothing even though it was virtually powerless to act alone. The whole situation is a national embarrassment but the British government is not solely to blame for this. However, many countries  will now be smiling at Britain's chagrin and some will be sneering at Britain: schadenfreude now meets realpolitik.

It was even suggested in Parliament that Britain should intervene militarily where America left off, and that some multi-national force should be organised by Britain without American support. This is "pie in the sky". Who will support Britain? Germany, France , Italy and Spain, but after the 2016 referendum that is wishful thinking. Who will join Britain in a military pact, when it reneges on its international commitments over the Northern Ireland protocol? Lives could be lost again for nothing the stakes are much higher. 

Britain has also decided to cut its foreign aid budget but now this must be reversed, the only influence we have left now is  Money.

It is time for the British people to wake up to the fact that the UK is no longer a world power and has not been since before the Second World War. Our future lies with Europe,  as the only way we can influence world events is by co-operating with France and Germany. We will have to share our sovereignty with Europe again to regain influence with the US. "Global Britain"  was just an empty slogan. Sooner or later, the public will recognise this and their political parties will have to change tack and develop a new policy.

Will a piece of cloth around your face really protect you ?

There's masks and then there's masks; FFP3 professional surgical masks will protect you from Sars Cov 2 transmission, a piece of cloth around your face hardly will.

I had a good conversation with our widow cleaner his morning, his idea of controlling the Covid 19 pandemic was for every one to be obliged by law to wear a cloth or surgical mask when going to a supermarket, pub etc. but to relieve ourselves of other measures such as social distancing. He was not impressed with youngsters going to a nightclub, getting smashed or high and then dancing around and kissing one another. I got the impression that he wanted that banned. 

I thought to myself dream on but I was too polite to suggest that he was deluding himself. There have hardly been any peer reviewed randomised controlled trials of masks, or other measures, used to reduce the transmission of Sars Cov 2 or any other virus for that matter. There is there is no proof whether masks work or not and to what extent.

One thing is clear, in the UK, there is a third wave of the epidemic despite mask wearing,  the 2 metre distance rule and the rule of 6 indoors. Infections are now out of control even after more than  50%   of the adult population has been vaccinated by highly effective vaccines.

To rely on ordinay  masks  alone to protect yourself and others from transmission of the Sars Cov 2 virus is probably a big mistake. 

Some research has been done regarding the efficacy of FFP3 masks compared to ordinary surgical masks. The FFP3 mask has been observed to be many more time effective at filtering out the Sars Cov 2 virus. A well fitted mask used by a trained user filters out most virus particles to leave wearers and those around them safe from infection. An ordinary surgical masks is found wanting when working directly with Covid 19 patients.

The results of these observations made in a Cambridgeshire are shown below. This was not a randomised controlled trial and the results were not peer reviewed, but the findings are promising enough for a recommendation to be made that all staff dealing with Covid 19 patients should wear FFP or Full face Protection Masks. I am surprised that this was not the case from the outset of the epidemic.

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/upgrading-ppe-for-staff-working-on-covid-19-wards-cut-hospital-acquired-infections-dramatically

https://www.cuh.nhs.uk/news/drop-in-staff-covid-19-infections-after-ppe-upgrade/

https://www.authorea.com/users/421653/articles/527590-ffp3-respirators-protect-healthcare-workers-against-infection-with-sars-cov-2?commit=e567e67501cd6ee0dd1a6e8e4acdf2c4fd70e0ec

It is worth reading these articles to put mask wearing into perspective.

It is my view that the medical authorities have placed too much emphasis on the use of cloth masks and ordinary surgical masks to protect the public. They do help, perhaps, to reduce transmission of the virus but it is not clear by how much; no epidemiologist is prepared to say to the public that there is no proof that they work at all, or even if they do, by how much do they reduce the risk of infection. Masks must be used along with social distance, the rule of six  and improved ventilation for them to work. In fact, if a two meter distance was adhered to, along with reduced crowds in confined spaces there would probably be no need for masks. Recently, I have sat on trains and in restaurants where  people have sat right next to me. I was wearing a mask out of courtesy , but did not feel 100% safe from transmission of the virus. Of course, we have to take risks in our daily lives, but I would prefer it if social distancing was strictly enforced to reduce the viral load of infective agents which can easily pass through a standard everyday mask.

The medical authorities must not lull the public into a false sense of security to believe that ordinary masks alone can stop the spread of the  Covid 19 virus and the epidemic: they simply cannot.

I shall wear a mask as a matter of courtesy, whilst being aware that it is probably best to avoid crowded places where social distancing measures are ignored. The vaccinations have been proven to work by randomised controlled trials which have been peer reviewed, and thank heavens for that. Vaccinations have also been proven to be safe. The jab is key to solving the the problems of the pandemic but it too must be used with other measures to contain the virus. It looks as though the vaccine protects you from a severe form of the Covid 19 disease so that the need hospitalisation is reduced. Vaccination does not fully protect you, however from, catching the disease again. Covid 19 is not a pleasant disease to catch even in its mild form, and further research needs to be done to examine the chronic effects of long Covid.

The epidemic is still raging strong and relying on just a mask to protect you and others is foolhardy. The best approach, from my point of view, is to have the vaccine and still bear in mind social distancing. If you must wear a mask then buy an FFP3 professional mask and learn how to use it safely with out putting others at risk but you might find that totally impractical when you want to eat a sandwich and drink a pint at the local.

It was "England expects" "wot" lost it

I had visions of writing a panegyric about the England football team this morning but they lost again, to Italy, in a penalty shoot-out in the Euro 2020 championships.

The team and their coach and manager should not be blamed. They got to the final and drew at both full and extra time. Surely, there is case for sharing the title when the final is a draw, just like a cricket series or a British and Irish Lions series - honours can be even. But, of course modern commercial and nationalistic instincts dictate that there must only be one winner.

There were some disturbing aspects to the latest football competition.

Football is not the most important game in the world. In my opinion Rugby is; I have been to a number of Rugby World Cup championships.  The supporters put the sport above most other considerations, the aggression only happens on the pitch but in a controlled way. The supporters do not cry into their beer if their team loses and do not become euphoric and silly if their team wins. The supporters, from every competing country, meet without rancour and racism. Rugby Football is a complete contrast to  Association Football in this respect. There is some of the "Corinthian spirit" left.

There is this dreadful attitude amongst some Football supporters and the media that England expects a win and that England is entitled to win. The team is lauded if it wins and is traduced if it loses.  The media piles pressure on the team. Gareth Southgate, the coach, was featured throughout the contest missing a penalty in 1996 and was unjustifiably blamed for an England defeat. The young players who missed penalties in the latest game will now be featured relentlessly in play backs and be blamed unjustifiably for another defeat.

 The "England expects" attitude is exacerbated by corrosive nationalism whipped up by the media. This has encouraged the more lunatic fringe of so called England "supporters" to indulge in violence amongst themselves, harassment of the children of  Danish supporters, booing the national anthems of opponent teams, booing when Italy took their penalties, shining laser beams in the eyes of the opposing team and probably the worst aspect of it all - racism and the abuse that it generates.

How can a team be expected to perform at its full potential when they see these shameful events happening before their eyes, whilst unprotected from the media attention and opprobrium from some quarters.

The young men who missed their penalties have been exposed to extreme pressure. They knew that they could not afford to miss because of the abuse that they would be subjected to, and the attitude that they are only true Englishmen when they score goals but are foreigners when they miss. These men pushed themselves to their limits  to do their best for their parents, communities and, dare I say it, their country; so probably the pressure prevented them from performing as they would have done on the training field. The press and media are now pressurising them further by repeatedly showing what happened. Anyone who is interested in football saw what happened and there is no need to show it again.

We have seen how the blatant nationalism spoils the chances of other British or English hopefuls. The young lady who performed so well in the Wimbledon championships was exposed to extreme pressure from the media and the adoring public. This caused her to show all the symptoms of a panic attack with breathing difficulties, whilst playing a match, after the pressure became too much for her. This ruined her match and performance on the day and it could ruin her promising sports career. 

You do not become a top Football  or Tennis player because you are British or English. You do it by developing your talents and working hard. Nationality does not confer rights upon you and, nationality should confer no obligations upon you to perform in a certain way. British or English nationality does not entitle you or any one else to win or gain privileges. The only thing that British or English nationality should guarantee is basic human rights and respect for everyone despite the colour of their skin or their background.

There is a Football World Cup competition around the corner. English football will be relying upon the same players to do well. The competition will be stronger with Brazil and Argentina added to the equation. If the public want the English team to do better then the abuse and triumphalism will have to stop and, the pressure on the team and their manager will have to be projected into a different direction. The "England expects" attitude will have to be dropped. All the players should be given respect. The media will have a huge part to play to relieve the pressure on the team by not incessantly replaying missed penalties and mistakes. 

If you want to give England a fair chance of winning then please cool it, after all its only a game and the sport itself should be bigger than any individual player, supporter or nation. Let's not miss the point again.

Remain voters should forget about campaigning for Britain to rejoin the EU in any form

 It is clear that Britain will not be returning to the EU , the Single Market or the Customs Union anytime soon. If we were to apply the Europeans would be unlikely to accept us. The whole country will have to learn to live with the consequences of leaving the Union. A small majority of the population voted for it but there was a large majority in Parliament; it is not just the Conservative party who will have to accept the responsibility for any failure.

The Brexit project will no doubt fail; there has been no  plan for  a "Global Britain", what does that mean in detail and in strategy? There are no unicorns galloping over the horizon to assure us of a prosperous future.

What happens if Scotland decides to leave the United Kingdom? Where is the contingency plan for this? What can the British government offer to Scotland to stop them seceding?

 Northern Ireland will soon see a "Catholic majority" population.  This will create fear amongst many in the "Protestant loyalist" community. It is quite clear that demographic changes and changes of political opinion are going to  affect future elections. Northern Ireland voted by a small majority to remain in the EU; so what happens if it that vote translates into support for a united Ireland? A first past the post referendum could lead to disastrous consequences and another civil war if a substantial majority for a united Ireland is not achieved in a referendum. The "Catholic majority" likewise might resent being asked to remain in the UK. We now have a tinderbox  to contend with.

The EU was the glue that held the UK together, human rights were guaranteed, free trade was guaranteed and most importantly of all the free movement of labour was guaranteed. The Scottish people were prepared to be part of a United Kingdom that was part of the EU. Likewise most people in Northern Ireland felt the same: there was no need for division; we could live in friendship and peace with one another. The situation has now radically changed. It is both illegal and taboo for one EU nation to claim  sovereignty over another member state. This no longer applies to Brexit. The Irish Deputy Prime Minister is openly saying that Ireland should prepare for unification. This would not have happened before Brexit.  In some respects this claim about Irish re-unification breaks the spirit of  Belfast Agreement, but so does the British Prime Minister's assertion that he would absolutely protect the integrity of the UK- think about it.

Remain voters should prepare themselves for trouble ahead as leave voters, in the main, could not care less.

My wife and I love living in the UK and in particular in London. We would only leave if things go badly wrong and there is active and violent prejudice against EU and other foreign citizens - which is un-likely. However, we both have the insurance policy of EU passports. Most British voters do not have that privilege and will be stuck with the consequences of  a severe failure associated with Brexit, so it is time to have your own contingency plan. Don't believe that it cannot happen here

Middle East Wars again

 One again I have to write about war between Israel and Palestine. Is it not time for the fighting to stop? There is a solution to be gained and it is based upon human rights. The Palestinians are entitled to live in peace without their civilians being bombed. Israel has a right to exist as an independent state without their citizens being subject to attack from outside sources. The time for ethnic war and cleansing must stop. Invading and attacking forces on both sides must stop. There should be a two states solution implemented. Surely, the Palestinians have the right o there own state?

I despair for the human race, we are all from the same sub-species and race, but we are divided by religious and ethnic considerations. However, this is no reason for war. Human beings are the worse species of animals on the planet and it seems that not for one minute can we curb our aggressive nature and the desire for revenge. We cannot grow out of the irrational attitude that, " they started it and now we are going to finish it".

There is now a case for a solution to be imposed upon the combattants by the United Nations; so the UN Security Council should give the General Secretary the authority to impose a solution backed up by sanctions and force if necessary. Peace needs to be achieved, and who knows the peace may lead to a rapprochement?

Of course, this will not happen and it looks as though attack and revenge attack will be the continuous  modus operandi of both the Israelis and the Palestinians. I appeal to both sides to stop the killing, wounding and devastation  now.

Michael Collins - The best of America

Yesterday, the death of Michael Collins, at the age of 90, was announced. He  was  one of the bravest and was a shining light, and puts to shame some of the US leaders that that dared to undermine the American nation and its constitution.

In my mind he was probably the bravest of the Apollo 11 crew but by a narrow margin. Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong  were never completely alone during their mission. If something went wrong they could at least rely upon each other, if only for reassurance,  if they were cut off from communication with mission control or Collins in the command module. 

Whilst Collins was orbiting the Moon, on the far side, he was completely isolated, and he could not even see the Earth. He was the second human to be in this position. This was complete isolation hundreds of thousands of kilometers from the Earth and his family and friends. He had to hold his nerve and solve problems alone. He was a key member of the team to ensure the safe return of his comrades to his command module, when they arrived back from their mission to the surface of the moon.

I have no doubt that Collins was carefully selected for his task; the mission directors would have to be certain that Collins had an  exceptionally strong and stable character and was able to think rationally at all times. They would need to be assured that despite the isolation he would have, at all times, concentrated on the safe return of his team mates. He was a truly brave man along with his comrades.

The strength of his character comes across in his wonderful book "Carrying The Fire". His book also charts the progress of one of mankind's greatest achievements.

Soon a team of brave people, probably Americans, will land on the Moon again. I hope I am alive to see this landing for a second time, for it will be just as great an achievement but probably without someone being totally cut off from their home.

The Brexit " bum steer"

 Last week my shiny new British Passport arrived and it looks great and reminds me of my old but much more substantial one. It was meant to be one of the benefits of  Brexit, it emphasises Britain's sovereignty where holders can feel proud to be part of a sovereign and global thinking nation again.

I compared it to my not so shiny French passport. It is almost exactly the same. It holds exactly the same information as the new British one even the microchips are the same. Why is this? By international agreement passports are standardised  to provide easy and secure crossing of borders.

Because of Brexit we have just changed the colour of the passport to make it look different. In reality, the British passport no longer affords the holder the same power as the pre-Brexit mauve one. Before Brexit, a British passport holder could go to live and work in the 28 member states provided that they were not a burden to that state, Britain and the Republic of Ireland were exceptions to this as the Common Travel Area between them allows for complete mutual freedom of movement.

Pre-Brexit Britons were entitled to have their marriage partners from anywhere in the world live with them, and likewise their children and grand parents. Not so anymore,  as marriage partners from abroad have to apply for expensive visas and likewise the children and grand parents. They could be denied residence if they do not qualify financially.

Brexit has removed a whole  raft of family and working rights from British people, who enjoyed more or less freedom of movement in 27 other countries. Britons are now limited to enjoying those rights in the Republic of Ireland. That holiday job in Greece is now denied to British young people. British young people will have to go through mountains of bureaucracy to get a  permanent or contract job in Berlin. An individual Briton who wants to set up a business in Denmark will be faced with a mountain of paper work. The blue British passport won't make anyone's life easier when dealing with the EU nations.  Brexit has made things worse.

I am a great believer in human rights and this is why I eagerly applied for a French passport as soon as I became French on the strength of being married to a French woman: it cost me 55 Euros and some time swotting up "French life" facts and I had to prove that I could speak French to an acceptable level. To become British my wife will have to pay at least £1,300 and that £1,300 is forfeited if she makes a mistake on the application.

 Formerly, one of my British friends married a French woman; she only had to go to the Home Office and show her marriage lines to be awarded British citizenship and a passport. This is  the way it should be in every  nation, close relations should be granted citizen's rights upon marriage and this right should include their children - it's now a much sadder world.

Brexit, has only provided an illusion of power and sovereignty. Gibraltar has been forced by practicality at the borders to join the Schengen agreement. It has allowed EU border guards to operate on Gibraltar territory: so much for British power and sovereignty. Flashing a blue passport won't get you anywhere to avoid this.

British sovereignty over Northern Ireland  has been much reduced because of the Good Friday Agreement and Brexit. Northern Ireland  has to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market to maintain the the Good Friday Agreement in good working order as part of the Northern Ireland Protocol. This means there has to be a custom border control between Britain and Northern Ireland to ensure that British goods just destined for Northern Ireland do not accidently get into the EU uncontrolled.  The UK agreed to sign the Northern Ireland protocol within the last year, it now wants to renege on this agreement. The Europeans and Americans will sanction us if we do, so we won't do it: so much for our sovereignty.

British exporters to the EU are now lumbered with burdensome paperwork, so much so that small companies are having to set up operations in the EU and employ more staff in the EU just to trade more easily: so much for our sovereignty. 

Whilst our people and exporters have been burdened with forms and tariffs to move to the EU, our money has not. £1 trillion pounds of assets have been transferred to EU capitals by the financial industry, this money is most welcome in the those financial capitals, there was no blue passport needed to move it: so much for our sovereignty. There is precious little coming the other way.

The Brexit situation will get worse; there are no unicorns over the hill to flash any sort of passport to come and save our sovereignty, freedom, human rights, trade and financial assets. You voted for a bum steer.

Does politics have to stop because of the Covid 19 virus?

 Today we find out that the leader of the UK opposition party, does not want the UK to re-apply for membership of the EU and that it is a dead issue? Of, course it is, and does anyone think seriously think that the EU would want the UK back? 

Given that the EU is no longer a discussion point, I would like to know what the Labour party is going to do about poor housing, the badly funded NHS, the badly funded school system and international trade, as just for starters. Most of all I want to know what the Labour party is going to do about the billions of pounds of debt that has been run up because the epidemic was badly managed. I want to know what the Labour party has got to say to the millions of young people who will be saddled with the consequences of this debt.

I want to know what the Conservative and Liberal Parties have in mind for the same issues. The electorate must be provided with a realistic analysis about the problems  that the country faces, and a series of realistic options and recommendations to improve the nation's prospects, given that we are in the middle of a serious health and economic crisis.

Unfortunately, I don't think anything concrete will be forthcoming. We need evidence based decision and policy making, and not just broken promises. Perhaps, it is time for the Greens to be given a chance. We all have a vote let's consider the alternative.

Yaboo Yaboo Yaboo - The Covid 19 vaccine merry-go-round

 Yaboo, "we have got more Covid19 vaccines than you". Yaboo, "no you haven't". Yaboo "we are better than you". Yaboo "no you're not".

Yaboo, "it's time to stop this nonsense, the virus does not care and it will kill you or make you very sick, if all this Yaboo is not stopped".

Catch22 Immigrant

Trevor Donald is the victim of the most egregious bureaucracy related to the Windrush scandal. He came to Britain at the age of 11 in 1963 as part of the Windrush generation. It appears that his arrival and right to be a resident of the UK had never been documented. When he went to Jamaica in 2010 to attend his mother's funeral he had to travel on emergency documents, but he was given assurance that he would  be allowed to return to the UK to take up his residence again.  Upon trying to return home later in 2010 ,  he was barred from entry and remained stranded in Jamaica for 9 years.  In 2019 he was finally allowed to return home as part of the Windrush correction scheme, but he has been denied the immediate granting of British Citizenship because he had not been in the country for 5 years. This is an insult and Mr Donald has been treated with contempt as part of a "Catch 22" not so merry go round. 

Before, he went to Jamaica  in 2020 he was already a British citizen albeit an undocumented one. He had lived in the country for 43 years since childhood, it was his right to be British. He should have been granted citizenship in 2010 and been given a passport immediately. The same should have been the case when he returned form his illegal exile in 2019.

We now live in a world where personal testimony seems to count for nothing, there were probably innumerable British citizens who could have vouched for Mr Donald and confirmed that he was living in the UK legally , doctors' and dentists' records could have been checked etc. There is no need for endless bureaucracy and computer records for proof of who you are.

The Crown grants people citizenship upon the recommendation of the Home Office. Under international law no-one should be allowed to be a stateless citizen, but  Mr Donald was forced to be a stateless by British bureaucracy, and he still is. The Home Secretary should recommend, to the monarch, that Mr Donald is granted British Citizenship and a passport immediately. The Queen would probably be pleased to do so in order to right an injustice.

Get your vaccine as soon as it is offered

 I had my Astra Zeneca vaccine last Saturday. The jab was painless and 48 hours later I have not felt any side effects. My decision to have the vaccine was not based upon the hubristic recommendations of the government but from my own research of the scientific evidence and the my own weighing up of the risks versus benefits by a personal and community consideration.

The scientific evidence  regarding the efficacy of the Astra Zenaca's vaccine for people aged 65 and over is weak. The vaccine company did not test a sufficient number of older people in their randomised trials to confirm that the vaccine works for older people. However, there is no proof that it does not work, for the same reason. The vaccine works for younger people and this has been proven , my own assessment is that it will therefore work for older people and even if it does not give full protection it will probably lessen the impact of catching the disease. 

The vaccine has also been shown to lessen the risk of younger infected people passing the virus own and I assess that this will be true for older people.

I had nothing to lose by having the vaccine and a lot to gain and so did the community in general, the choice for me was simple and obvious. 

The US FDA has asked Astra Zeneca to run further trials to prove that the vaccine works for the over 65s before they approve its use. Again, I expect  that the vaccine will probably be given approval. If it is proven not to work in the over 65s then, so what?  No doubt I will be given a vaccine that does.

There is some doubt that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not totally effective against the South African variant but this has not been proven and I expect that the vaccine will at least provide some protection to prevent hospitalisations.

None of the vaccines have been definitely proven to inhibit  transmission of the virus from  an asymptomatic individual to another person. We will all have to watch our step to prevent this from happening. My wife has not been vaccinated yet so I won't be taking any chances with her life; so social distancing is the watchword for me until everyone has been vaccinated and infections can be limited to 1,000 per day, as was wisely recommended by a former Health Secretary. It looks as though a vaccination programme alone cannot suppress this dangerous virus on its own until there an efficient test , track and isolation system is working. And we have not got there yet. 

Many more than 100,000 have died and  many others have been left with long covid. Our economy has also been ruined by the poor performance of the government in mitigating the effects of the virus. Thousands more could die if the government  ignores the scientific advice  to allow another peak. The economy is in danger of being wrecked by coming out of the lockdown too soon again and allowing another peak followed by emergency measures.

The vast majority of the British people are doing the right thing to follow the scientific advice to socially distance themselves and have a vaccine. The government must by wise too and ensure that safety is put first.

Vaccine Nationalism

 It had to happen. Vaccine Nationalism has broken out. Your country is depriving my country of our vaccine. Our experts are better than your experts when we chose to listen to them. Our intellectual property won't be shared unless you pay us a lot of money. Our vaccine is better than your vaccine because it was produced in our country not yours. 

The facts of the matter are that third world countries are being deprived of the vaccine because they cannot afford to pay for the vaccine and they are being deprived of the ability to vaccinate their populations because they cannot afford the infrastructure. All countries are being equally nationalistic in their attitude.

If you are a resident  of a rich country you will benefit from being on the top of the list. You will have been lucky so don't accuse other countries about being nationalistic  because that will be complete hypocrisy. I haven't noticed anyone from a rich country foregoing access to the vaccine to allow someone from a third world country to be allowed to get priority. This includes me and my friends some of whom claim that the Oxford vaccine is better than the Pfizer one because it is British: I hate to remind them that this is bunkum.

The Covid 19 virus does not have a nationality neither does the vaccine. The virus and the vaccine are biochemical reagents which react with the human organism  to produce a disease response, in the case of the virus, or a prophylactic response, in the case of the vaccine. The virus and the vaccine have no thoughts or intentions they are neither enemies or allies. The virus is a result of natural evolution; the vaccine is the result of human design and ingenuity. The virus will evolve by natural selection to become more contagious or virulent or both. The vaccine will have to be changed by human design to counteract the evolution of the virus.

There really should be no such thing as " intellectual property" no one can work alone to produce a new theory or blueprint for a new vaccine. All intellectual activity is built upon the work of others including our forefathers and mothers.

It would have been impossible for Einstein to have developed his theory of relativity if he had lived a thousand years ago. Einstein recognised this which is why he shared all his scientific knowledge and ideas .

Vaccine technology should be shared as it not genuinely the "intellectual property" of an individual or a company. The product of vaccine technology should be shared and distributed throughout the world on an equitable basis without one nation childishly claiming priority. National governments should regulate the pharmaceutical industries to achieve this whilst giving fair reward to the companies and individuals involved.

 Viruses do not respect national boundaries. An individual can only be protected when everyone is protected. Selfishness is not the answer to make provision for global health and immunity. 

 

Why?

 The UK is approaching 100,000 deaths from its C19 epidemic, and some commentators already claim that the UK already has a death of much more than 100,000 depending on how you count the casualties. The UK has a population of around 66 million.

South Korea has a population of just over 51 million. its death count from C19 is less than 1,400.

The British people should ask themselves why South Korea was able to control its epidemic so much more efficiently than the UK and other Western states for that matter. They should ask themselves why South Korea is now in a position to vaccinate its population according to WHO standards and not rush into just vaccinating each patient once and then waiting for a long period before the second vaccine is given. No country can rely upon vaccination programmes alone to solve the C19 problem; there must be effective test, track and isolation systems in place, as has been made clear by the WHO.

Why has South Korea been so much better than the UK. Is it because  the South Korean scientific and health experts are so much better than British ones?  Did the South Korean government heed the advice of its experts?Did the British government ignore the advice of its experts? Did the British government badly organise test, track and isolate systems.

The British now have one of the worst death rates from C19 in the world. We are approaching a brutal and gruesome total. The British people deserve to know what is going wrong and what went wrong and why, and how it can be fixed. They should then be able to vote accordingly.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

British Influence

 It is my opinion that the people who will feel the worse effects of Brexit will be British diplomats and senior politicians. The USA used the UK as a bridge with which to influence the EU. This connexion is now gone. The Republic of Ireland will now take Britain's place as the anglophone intermediary between the US and the EU. This will be to the chagrin of British diplomats whose voice will no longer be heard as strongly in the corridors of power.

Over the next 30 or so years the economic powers of the US, Germany, France and the UK will more than likely decline. China, India  and Russia will more than likely be on the rise. The USA and the Western European states share so many values that they will seek to become closer both politically and economically to offset the military and economic influence of China, Russia and India. The US and the  EU will probably ask Japan to join them. Britain will be forced by circumstances to follow suite  but because it is no longer a member of the EU Council, its influence will be considerably diminished. The USA will show decreasing reliance on the UK. Britain will be shut out from the new bodies which will seek to dominate world politics and economic activity. Britain will suffer the humiliation of the Republic of Ireland and other small European states having more influence. If Scotland leaves the UK to join the EU then it too will become more influential than what's left of the UK. Scotland will become another anglophone link to the EU for the US.

Britain will have to rely much more on the Entente Cordiale with France to retain some sort of influence in Europe. Britain will not have the power to upset France too much. Britain will feel left out; so the political elite will be determined to find ways to get back into to Europe and persuade its citizens to do so. Britain will then have to persuade the EU to let it rejoin the EU council of ministers in some sort of way. Britain will  be confronted by the "real politik" of assuming its place in the European family of nations by rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union or even the EU itself.

Britain's economic future relies upon  a strategic alliance with the EU, and to be cut off from European decision making will be more damaging than leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union - in the long run. The politicians who organised Brexit know this, and if they cannot find a way of achieving a strong connexion with the EU,the US and Japan, to protect Britain's economic, political, diplomatic and military future, then they will be replaced by an increasingly worried public. British politicians will lament their lack of power and influence and so will the nation. The sooner British politicians set about repairing the humiliation, and the political and diplomatic damage of Brexit the better.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html#keyprojections

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10-economies-2030/

The storming of the Capitol

 In some respects, for me, the storming of the US Capitol and the insurrection was even more disturbing than the 9/11 attacks. The attacks of 9/11 were committed by foreigners with the terrible murder of 3,000 American and International citizens. The death toll of the January 6th was much lower but the attack was instigated by American citizens who were trying to overthrow democracy. Ironically they were not trying to rebel against a tyrant but they were rebelling against a democratically elected Congress which defends their liberty and freedom of speech. They were also rebelling against a fairly elected President elect who will also defend their liberty and freedom of speech. Violence against the US Congress has rightly been condemned, there can be no excuse. There can be no excuse for inciting a mob to overthrow democracy and this is as grave a crime in my eyes as actually doing these deeds.

It seems that being rational is now a minority pursuit. It is quite possible that the insurrection is not over; so the transition of power to the new President must be protected at all costs. From now on leaders of other countries especially the US's allies must set aside political differences and give the new US President all the international   support that he needs to guarantee liberty and democracy for all of us.

During my working life I have worked for many great US companies and I have met hundreds of American citizens and debated political issues with them in my spare time. Democrat or Republican most of them were very good people who were friendly towards me. They do not deserve to see the  horror of what happened to their country on 6th of January 2021 - it was a terrible beginning to their New Year.