A place where sceptics can exchange their views

Tuesday, 5 November 2019

The UK is now in a sad state.

All of our friends from continental Europe, the US and Australia think that the UK is bonkers to be leaving the EU. They can see things from the outside and from an objective point of view. They can see what will become of the country when we finally leave the EU.  It will become inward looking, more divided, politically and diplomatically weaker and economically weaker. Our friends can see that the UK has made a mistake. They see a country that has lost its self-confidence and which fears strangers rather than despises them. They see a country whose enterprises are owned and driven by Europeans, Americans and former Commonwealth nationals. British people, in the main, no longer have the self-confidence to compete and lead in an ever increasing international environment. Britain is lost and will probably split up: the Great Britain we once new will split up. New enterprises and investment will probably avoid Britain in the future to our social and economic detriment. I am surprised that there has not been a genuine financial crisis yet, but one is surely on the way if the division continues.

Successive governments and opposition parties have been naive. You cannot rule a country by using referendums unless there are checks and balances. Referendums can be very divisive and they should be used sparingly and wisely. An inward looking Britain has not learnt from other countries. Most sensible countries require a super majority before constitutional change is initiated. Most sensible countries make a decision only when the consequences of change are fully and honestly discussed, and they have constitutional courts which can annul a referendum or order a re-run if a campaign has not been run according to constitutional standards.

Australia has compulsory voting which means that everyone must vote. It also has rules which state that constitutional change cannot take place unless 4 out of 6 of its states agree to change, for this reason most referendums since the second world war have failed to institute change. No one complains that they have been cheated , the system ensures that the whole country is happy to accept the result within the rules.

In Britain we decided to hold an advisory referendum based on a first past the post system, which meant that a minority of the public decided that we should change the constitution.  Around 17 million voted to leave the EU, 16 million voted to remain and 13 million did not vote. Two of the 4 nations of the UK voted to remain in the EU and 2 voted to leave. The country was and still is completely divided. The decision to leave or remain was not based on the results of an objective assessment made by royal commission or similar body; it was based upon emotion and ideology. You cannot run a successful country like this.

The government and opposition were disingenuous to promise the population they they would implement the result of the referendum. If it was really their wish, then they would have made the result mandatory, in the first place, and we would have left by now. Most MPs , government ministers and opposition leaders know that leaving the EU will create great problems for our country. They have not have the courage to tell the people the result of the referendum should not be adhered to. Many in the population feel their opinion  and Brexit should be implemented; they were promised empowerment and they now assume the right to demand it.

It is quite clear that the government's deal will not solve the problems of Brexit. It will probably exacerbate them. Scotland will try for independence. Northern Ireland might try for independence too. If Scotland and Northern Ireland vote for independence,on a first past the post system, where the minority voices of  the unionists  and non-voters are not considered, then there will be be further division and possible violence. We are on dangerous ground.

I was a remain voter; I am prepared to compromise and leave the EU, but only if the UK stays in the customs union and single market. The single market and customs union will both help to maintain the unity of the UK and its economic well being. It is the common sense solution. Substantial proportions of the population, however, are adamant either to stay in the EU or Leave completely. And a substantial proportion of the population do not have an opinion. This is a recipe for further division.

We are pedalling in the swamp and we must be careful not to sink into it completely.  A general election or another referendum may not solve the divisions.  A wise choice would be to revoke the referendum result and admit to the mistake. A strong and democratic politician coming into power, such as Winston Churchill,
would admit to the errors and lead us to a solution . The trouble is, we do not have a strong and democratic leader and I fear worse is to come.

Be careful how you vote. Young people: think carefully about your future and be sure to go to the ballot box.

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