The British system of democracy is in a sad state. The ruling party is sustaining itself by lies and deceit and the worst kinds of fake news on social media. News organisations such as the BBC are afraid to hold the government to account. Recently a government minster announced during an interview with the BBC that Britain was going to plant 30 million trees to improve the environment. He claimed that when Britain leaves the EU it would be free to do so; he was implying that the EU was was holding Britain back. The interviewer should than have followed up with the question "what EU law is preventing Britain from planting these trees?" Of course, there is no such law; the politician was are being allowed to get away with deceit.
The public is being confused by the most egregious propaganda full of deceit and false promises.
The opposition is no better; surely the leader of the Labour party should inform the public what is his personal opinion about Brexit. It is perfectly possible to be open about your opinion and still have the policy of renegotiating the Brexit deal and then asking the public whether they want to proceed with this new Brexit deal or stay in the EU. What is the leader of the opposition frightened of? The public deserve openness and the truth.
Both political parties are promising 10 billion here and 10 billion there: all over the place. This is disingenuous. The nation will not be able to afford any of these promises if it leaves the EU.The economy is dragging along in near recession and leaving the single market and customs union will make matters worse.
If we leave the single market we will probably lose large sections of our industry.
When we leave the EU our power as a medium sized state will be diminished. We will lose the trade deals we have as a result of our membership of the EU. We will lose our deals with Japan and Canada and other larger states; these trade deals will have to be renegotiated to try to maintain the status quo. Our position will be weakened without the EU. By leaving the EU we risk losing trade deals which already cover about 60% of world trade. Leaving the EU is economically stupid. A weakened Great Britain will be at the mercy of China and the US. There will be no free lunches and no extra money to be spent on the NHS, the Police, Social Services or Education.
The Prime Minister has promised that the Brexit transition period will not be extended beyond 31st December 2020. A new free trade deal with the EU will not have been negotiated by then.There is no hope of this being a successful political or economic strategy. In fact it will probably be an political and economic disaster. When we leave the EU we will lose most of our negotiating power. The economic cliff edge will be re-awakened but with a vengeance. Increased tariffs and quotas will be placed on our exports to the EU , Japan and Canada etc and according to WTO rules - so much for our sovereignty. Every lorry will be stopped at Dover and the Channel Tunnel for their documents to be examined. The queues will be tremendous. There will be an economic border between the Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK; a recipe for conflict with the "loyalist" community of Northern Ireland. There will be no mitigation forthcoming from the EU.
All of this is a prospect of economic stagnation and political conflict. Britain will be on its own.
It is quite likely that Scotland will push for a border poll and it will probably be successful this time. The UK will be negotiating to split up before it has finalised an agreement with the EU: another recipe for chaos.
It is time for the major parties to spell out the consequences of Brexit. The promises made to the voters about sovereignty and obeying EU law have already been broken because of the need to placate the EU over the Good Friday Agreement. The promises about ending freedom of movement for EU citizens will also be broken. Britain will have to make concessions over this otherwise we will not be able to negotiate a good free trade agreement, this broken promise will be dressed up in a fudge.
The leave voters have been duped by politicians of both sides. The best course of action would be to remain in the EU. The costs of leaving far outweigh the doubtful benefit - freedom to make trade deals which are worse than we have already got. It is time for politicians to tell the truth and the voting public to wake up. I doubt that this will happen and the slippery slope will get steeper. Britain's democracy is no longer fit for purpose as it allowing this to happen. We need proper constitutional change to improve our political system and democracy otherwise we will sink into the mire.
Wednesday, 20 November 2019
Tuesday, 5 November 2019
The UK is now in a sad state.
All of our friends from continental Europe, the US and Australia think that the UK is bonkers to be leaving the EU. They can see things from the outside and from an objective point of view. They can see what will become of the country when we finally leave the EU. It will become inward looking, more divided, politically and diplomatically weaker and economically weaker. Our friends can see that the UK has made a mistake. They see a country that has lost its self-confidence and which fears strangers rather than despises them. They see a country whose enterprises are owned and driven by Europeans, Americans and former Commonwealth nationals. British people, in the main, no longer have the self-confidence to compete and lead in an ever increasing international environment. Britain is lost and will probably split up: the Great Britain we once new will split up. New enterprises and investment will probably avoid Britain in the future to our social and economic detriment. I am surprised that there has not been a genuine financial crisis yet, but one is surely on the way if the division continues.
Successive governments and opposition parties have been naive. You cannot rule a country by using referendums unless there are checks and balances. Referendums can be very divisive and they should be used sparingly and wisely. An inward looking Britain has not learnt from other countries. Most sensible countries require a super majority before constitutional change is initiated. Most sensible countries make a decision only when the consequences of change are fully and honestly discussed, and they have constitutional courts which can annul a referendum or order a re-run if a campaign has not been run according to constitutional standards.
Australia has compulsory voting which means that everyone must vote. It also has rules which state that constitutional change cannot take place unless 4 out of 6 of its states agree to change, for this reason most referendums since the second world war have failed to institute change. No one complains that they have been cheated , the system ensures that the whole country is happy to accept the result within the rules.
In Britain we decided to hold an advisory referendum based on a first past the post system, which meant that a minority of the public decided that we should change the constitution. Around 17 million voted to leave the EU, 16 million voted to remain and 13 million did not vote. Two of the 4 nations of the UK voted to remain in the EU and 2 voted to leave. The country was and still is completely divided. The decision to leave or remain was not based on the results of an objective assessment made by royal commission or similar body; it was based upon emotion and ideology. You cannot run a successful country like this.
The government and opposition were disingenuous to promise the population they they would implement the result of the referendum. If it was really their wish, then they would have made the result mandatory, in the first place, and we would have left by now. Most MPs , government ministers and opposition leaders know that leaving the EU will create great problems for our country. They have not have the courage to tell the people the result of the referendum should not be adhered to. Many in the population feel their opinion and Brexit should be implemented; they were promised empowerment and they now assume the right to demand it.
It is quite clear that the government's deal will not solve the problems of Brexit. It will probably exacerbate them. Scotland will try for independence. Northern Ireland might try for independence too. If Scotland and Northern Ireland vote for independence,on a first past the post system, where the minority voices of the unionists and non-voters are not considered, then there will be be further division and possible violence. We are on dangerous ground.
I was a remain voter; I am prepared to compromise and leave the EU, but only if the UK stays in the customs union and single market. The single market and customs union will both help to maintain the unity of the UK and its economic well being. It is the common sense solution. Substantial proportions of the population, however, are adamant either to stay in the EU or Leave completely. And a substantial proportion of the population do not have an opinion. This is a recipe for further division.
We are pedalling in the swamp and we must be careful not to sink into it completely. A general election or another referendum may not solve the divisions. A wise choice would be to revoke the referendum result and admit to the mistake. A strong and democratic politician coming into power, such as Winston Churchill,
would admit to the errors and lead us to a solution . The trouble is, we do not have a strong and democratic leader and I fear worse is to come.
Be careful how you vote. Young people: think carefully about your future and be sure to go to the ballot box.
Successive governments and opposition parties have been naive. You cannot rule a country by using referendums unless there are checks and balances. Referendums can be very divisive and they should be used sparingly and wisely. An inward looking Britain has not learnt from other countries. Most sensible countries require a super majority before constitutional change is initiated. Most sensible countries make a decision only when the consequences of change are fully and honestly discussed, and they have constitutional courts which can annul a referendum or order a re-run if a campaign has not been run according to constitutional standards.
Australia has compulsory voting which means that everyone must vote. It also has rules which state that constitutional change cannot take place unless 4 out of 6 of its states agree to change, for this reason most referendums since the second world war have failed to institute change. No one complains that they have been cheated , the system ensures that the whole country is happy to accept the result within the rules.
In Britain we decided to hold an advisory referendum based on a first past the post system, which meant that a minority of the public decided that we should change the constitution. Around 17 million voted to leave the EU, 16 million voted to remain and 13 million did not vote. Two of the 4 nations of the UK voted to remain in the EU and 2 voted to leave. The country was and still is completely divided. The decision to leave or remain was not based on the results of an objective assessment made by royal commission or similar body; it was based upon emotion and ideology. You cannot run a successful country like this.
The government and opposition were disingenuous to promise the population they they would implement the result of the referendum. If it was really their wish, then they would have made the result mandatory, in the first place, and we would have left by now. Most MPs , government ministers and opposition leaders know that leaving the EU will create great problems for our country. They have not have the courage to tell the people the result of the referendum should not be adhered to. Many in the population feel their opinion and Brexit should be implemented; they were promised empowerment and they now assume the right to demand it.
It is quite clear that the government's deal will not solve the problems of Brexit. It will probably exacerbate them. Scotland will try for independence. Northern Ireland might try for independence too. If Scotland and Northern Ireland vote for independence,on a first past the post system, where the minority voices of the unionists and non-voters are not considered, then there will be be further division and possible violence. We are on dangerous ground.
I was a remain voter; I am prepared to compromise and leave the EU, but only if the UK stays in the customs union and single market. The single market and customs union will both help to maintain the unity of the UK and its economic well being. It is the common sense solution. Substantial proportions of the population, however, are adamant either to stay in the EU or Leave completely. And a substantial proportion of the population do not have an opinion. This is a recipe for further division.
We are pedalling in the swamp and we must be careful not to sink into it completely. A general election or another referendum may not solve the divisions. A wise choice would be to revoke the referendum result and admit to the mistake. A strong and democratic politician coming into power, such as Winston Churchill,
would admit to the errors and lead us to a solution . The trouble is, we do not have a strong and democratic leader and I fear worse is to come.
Be careful how you vote. Young people: think carefully about your future and be sure to go to the ballot box.
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