Clean Hard Brexit

Surely, whether you are a Brexit supporter or not you must admit to yourself that the whole political process has been a fiasco. We are now 4 weeks away from leaving the EU, and if there is no political intervention to either ratify the withdrawal agreement or delay Brexit then we leave without a deal. We make a clean break.

The short term consequences of a clean break are tremendous. The nation is simply not ready to leave from a legal, economic and administrative point of view.

The long term consequences are worse.

Freedom of movement between the EU and the UK will stop. This does not mean that immigration will either stop or even be reduced as promised; all the evidence suggests that immigration will continue unabated unless there is some sort of economic recession which makes the UK unattractive for economic migrants.

 A clean break will mean that people who do not have any means of obtaining dual UK/EU nationality will become second class citizens. Irish citizens will have the right to work and live in the UK and the right to live and work in the EU. Any EU citizen, with UK indefinite leave to remain, will also have the right to live  and work in the UK and the EU. British young people who do not have such privileges will be at the back of the queue to work for big international companies. There will be no escaping Britain to go to work in the EU, or anywhere else for that matter, if there is an increase in unemployment.

You had better hope that your son or daughter does not fall in love with a partner  from the EU; the EU partner will not be able to come to live in the UK so you might find your son or daughter setting up home in the EU. You might need a visa to go and visit them.

Britain will lose a lot of diplomatic power. The government recently threatened to send an aircraft carrier to the South China sea. In response China broke off trade talks - brilliant.

The USA will take us to the cleaners negotiating a new trade deal, as our country will be almost powerless to resist chlorinated chicken, reduce food standards and the partial privatisation of the NHS by US companies. The UK will have Investor State Dispute Settlements forced upon us - the sovereignty of the UK will be compromised - another broken promise.

If we have a clean break from the EU then we will lose all of  the free trade deals negotiated on our behalf by the Commission. Trade deals of which we have had a major say. We lose everything including the free trade deal with the EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Mexico etc. We will be left with temporary free trade deals with Switzerland and the Faroe islands. We will have to start from scratch. It will be like committing a trade war against ourselves. It is mad.

When we leave the single market, Japanese investment in UK industry will almost entirely disappear which means most of our car industry will disappear and their ancillary industries. All governments, since the Thatcher government, have guaranteed that the UK will stay in the single market. To the Japanese, the UK will have been seen to have acted in bad faith or even dishonourably. Britain will suffer because of this.

Perhaps, the worse aspect of a hard Brexit will be the damage that will be done to our relationship with Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement.  A hard border in Ireland could lead to social disorder and possibly a return to terrorist violence both in Ireland and in the UK . Do we really wan to return to the troubles even if the risk is small?

Brexit could even lead to the dismantlement of the UK. There is a fair chance that Scotland and Northern Ireland will vote for a split from the UK. This will mean further legal, economic and administrative disruption.

The EU has helped maintain the peace in Europe after centuries of warfare. The UK breaking away could inspire others. Disunity in Europe could lead to renewed conflict.

Why should the UK take the risk of Brexit? Brexiter politicians have no plan for what happens after we leave. They have broken their promise that the transition would be smooth. They have no plan to improve the economic, political and administrative position of the UK after we leave.

We are facing chaos.

If the worse comes to the worse then Leave voters will have no moral right to complain. Everyone will suffer excepting the rich elite - Leaver and Remain elites the like. Leave voters voted in the referendum to improve their lives; their hopes will have been dashed. I hope that they demonstrate their disappointment peacefully.