Brexit and Immigration

I told you so, voting for Brexit will hardly dent immigration numbers. The Government is planning to issue visa to 2,500 non-EU migrant farm workers after Brexit in March 2019.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45429397

The workers will be allowed in for 6 months. The National Farmers Union has expressed fears that there will be a labour shortage after Brexit because EU workers are deciding to leave the country and probably will not come back. Wages in the rest of the EU are rising faster than in the UK and the fall in the pound makes Britain un-attractive from EU workers point of view.

Farmers will be looking for lower paid workers from other parts of the world.

Other industries will suffer a shortage of staff too and the solution will be the same. There will only be substantial reductions in immigration if the British economy loses momentum; but this would mean that most of us would suffer from a decline in the value of the pound and a failure of the economy to grow. It is more than possible that a no deal Brexit will harm the economy.

Even if there is a deal major international manufacturers will probably not invest in the UK as they will prefer to go to the EU where trading conditions are more stable and where they can lobby the EU and the 27 remaining governments. Even staying in the single market might not protect us from the loss of international manufacturing capacity.

If you voted to leave the EU because you were promised that there would be fewer immigrants and that you would be better off, it might be wise to think again. Perhaps, the costs and risks are greater than the benefits. No-one has explained yet how we can minimise the risks and exploit the benefits; no-one has a plan for leaving.

Leave politicians are due to publish a plan for Brexit soon, some of them have had 41 years to do this and over two years have gone by since the referendum - so far nothing. Can any of their expert predictions be any more certain than the predictions of the remain camp.  Predictions can cancel each other out, but how can risks be mitigated if you do not have a realistic plan. It is all too late now, our best course of action  will be to call off Brexit. Leave voters have been let down, your economic future is not secure.The immigrants will continue to come for without them our economy could fail completely.