Nearly every prediction that I have made about Brexit is now coming true. Northern Ireland is now the sticking point. When Ireland and Britain joined the Common Market, way back in 1973, very few people believed that European unity would go some way to helping a peace process in Northern Ireland and on the island of Ireland in general. By 1973, the troubles in Northern Ireland were well underway. By the time that the "civil war" had been resolved in 1998 over 1800 civilians had been killed, the majority of whom were residents of Northern Ireland. The conflict, however, claimed civilian casualties in both the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.
The EU was part of the solution to centuries of conflict. Free movement of people and trade helped to breakdown the social, economic and political divisions. The Republic of Ireland and the UK became equals and this also helped smooth the way to the Republic of Ireland declaring that it no longer had a unilateral claim to achieve a united Ireland. The UK also declared that it had no interest in preserving a union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain against the wishes of a majority in Northern Ireland. The scene was set for continuing peace.
This peace could easily be unravelled. If the UK leaves the European Union customs treaties and the single market then there will have to be a hard border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland. The people of Northern Ireland voted by a small majority (55%) to remain in the EU and therefore by default to remain in the customs union and single market. It looks as though some political elements in both Great Britain and Northern Ireland want to force the people of Northern Ireland out of the EU and its institutions against their will.
The UK is a sovereign state but any state has to exercise its sovereignty carefully. Britain has to consider the views of the Republic of Ireland and it also has to consider the views of a substantial minority of Northern Irish citizens who either wish for a unified Ireland or very close relations with the Republic. It would also seem that many in the loyalist community also want to maintain close relations with the Republic. The EU allowed for these close relations be maintained on an equitable, legal and peaceful basis. The UK could quite easily jeopardise 20 years of peace by quitting the EU.
It is quite clear that the Republic of Ireland is no longer willing to give in to the UK's economic power to dominate events. The EU gives it the power to challenge us. The UK should learn a lesson from this. By being part of a super power the UK is able to influence events and challenge US and Chinese power.
You, mister voter, were given the power in the referendum to influence the future of all of the nations that make up the United Kingdom. You demanded it and, therefore, it was your duty to research the history of our nation and consider the consequences of your decision to leave the EU. Will you ever be forgiven if conflict returns to Northern Ireland and violence returns not just to Ulster but to the Republic of Ireland too; and of course to the British mainland?
A place where sceptics can exchange their views
Wednesday, 6 December 2017
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