Brexit now reeks of failure

It was always going to be very difficult to wrest the UK away from the EU without any sort of plan. In my view it was irresponsible to call for a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the EU without an objective assessment of the facts and a recommendation from a Royal Commission. It was naive to insist that a first past the post vote of a 50% +1  majority of those who voted would be sufficient to authorise major constitutional change. Most sensible countries demand at least a 60% majority. It was also irresponsible not to take into account the desires of the individual nations that make up the UK. The fact that Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain in the EU should have been sufficient political reason to veto our departure from the EU.

Around 16 million people voted to remain in the EU and over 17 million voted to leave. 13 million people did not vote. Our country is completely divided and will remain so. If we leave the EU to find that we are in economic and political difficulty then all the remain and most of the non-voters will harbour resentment for years. Brexit will have to be a guaranteed success and it will have to deliver El Dorado.

Imagine what could happen if there was a referendum to abolish the monarchy just for Britain to become a republic. 16 million voted to retain the status quo, 17 million voted for a republic and 13 million did not vote. Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to keep the status quo but England and Wales voted for a republic. What would happen if the republic did not work and there was political chaos? To change the constitution in such a cavalier manner risks economic chaos and possible civil war; referendums can be dangerous if they are not managed astutely. Most of the time a simple majority vote is insufficient to prevent dangerous political divisions.

The task of managing Britain's departure from the EU is enormous and might not be achievable in the time available. The divisions within the governing party are preventing a viable plan for the future from being drawn up and agreed. We have no idea what our future relationship with the EU is going to be.  We have made no proposals. We have only made demands, it is the "cake and eat it" approach.

Our government is demanding that we have a completely free trade arrangement in the EU but without having freedom of movement of labour. We are also demanding that we do not have to adhere to the judgements of the European Court of Justice. Our government is demanding all the benefits of being in the customs union whilst being free to negotiate trade deals outside of the auspices of the EU.

The EU is perhaps the only major trading bloc that has  anywhere near free trade arrangements and such arrangements require the free movement people. How could free trade exist between England and Scotland if the Scottish people are denied the right to travel to England?

The EU can only say NO to our demands. We have decided to leave the EU organisation on a voluntary basis; we were not asked to go. We, as a nation, have neither the economic, political or military power to impose our will on the EU. The EU knows that we will suffer economically when we leave and all they have to do is sit and wait. The EU will also be damaged by Britain leaving, both economically and politically on the world stage. The economic damage to the EU, will however, be mitigated by the signing of "free trade " deals with Canada and Japan. Britain will have to re-negotiate all of our existing trade deals that we have as a result of our membership of the customs union. These trade deals could have covered 70% of our world trade. If we damage the EU or other nations as a result of our irresponsibility then we cannot expect any favours in return.

Britain is in a weak negotiating position we have made demands which simple cannot be met. Imagine, if we were to assert our sovereignty and leave NATO and then demand that NATO should protect us if we were attacked. The USA would say no and quite rightly so . If we want the protection of NATO we must pool our sovereignty with the US and other nations and stick to the rules.

The prime minister is in a weak if not impossible predicament. She knows that it could be dangerous to leave the EU but she is having her hand forced. There are conspiracies to replace her within her own party and the opposition parties also want to see her removed. Deposing her will not change the situation. The whole situation is simply unmanageable even Sir Winston Churchill would probably have failed in what the government is trying to do.

Some of the consequences of leaving  the EU  and customs union without a good and close agreement, such as EEA plus, are unthinkable. The following:

1) Administrative chaos: it is quite possible that we will leave the EU but we will have incorporated all of their law into British law with the Exit Bill. This could mean that EU citizens will still be allowed to freely migrate to the UK but British citizens being the denied the right to migrate freely to the EU.

Existing EU Customs Law will apply to the UK. EU goods will be allowed free movement but British goods could be stopped at the border with the EU for checks.

Customs checks on the border at the Channel tunnel will cause huge queues on the M2 and M20 motorways.

2) Commercial difficulties: Many companies will relocate their headquarters to the EU. There will be major job losses. Prices for food will go up. The farming industry will be damaged. We will have balance of payments difficulties, when our former customs union and single market partners impose new tariff and non-tariff barriers on our exports.  The pound will plunge making imports cheaper (if this is not offset by tariffs) but imports more expensive. It will also make foreign currency debt repayments much more expensive.

3) Political difficulties: these will be the worst consequences of all. There has been no solution proposed for Northern Ireland. If there has to be a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic we risk a return to the Troubles of the 70's and 80's - three thousand British citizens died as a result of these Troubles. The DUP will veto an alternative proposal for a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, as they hold the balance of power in parliament. If the Northern Ireland problem cannot be settled then this should be good cause to call off the Brexit venture.

If Brexit fails there will be good cause for the SNP to call for another referendum on Scottish independence. This will cause further divisions and it could be dangerous for Scotland if independence is granted on a slim 52/48% majority.

What happens if the EXIT Bill fails or is amended so much that it becomes powerless.  We will have left the EU but in legalistic limbo. EU law will still apply to the UK but the EU will regard us as a third party nation. Parliament will have to construct some kind of emergency legislation in a rushed manner.

All in all we are facing extreme political, administrative and commercial difficulties. It seems that at the moment that these problems cannot be resolved.

What would Sir Winston Churchill have done? Well, he would not have had the referendum in the first place. What would he have done if he was forced to take over the premiership in the current state of affairs. Well he would have faced down the arch Brexiteers in parliament. He would either have stopped Brexit altogether or commissioned a Royal Commission to analyse the facts and recommend a way forward. He would then let parliament decide on a free vote.

At the moment a small minority of parliamentary hardliners are in control and they are driving the UK over a cliff. Parliament must assert its authority and back a prime minister who can pull us back from the brink. Will this happen? Probably not: only a severe and regrettable financial crisis will save us from even greater trouble. Will this happen before Brexit becomes official? Probably not: the rocks at the bottom of the cliff are jagged and we will be falling on them at break neck speed.

It is time to sop dreaming about El Dorado and face reality.