UK hung Parliaments and the EU referendum

The UK is now going to face an uncertain future. I have written before about the dangers of a government fighting a General Election on the basis of the popularity of its leader in a presidential style campaign. The Conservative Party's election campaign misfired badly.

Britain is a parliamentary democracy; the Prime Minister is not elected by a popular vote. The UK is not a republic and, like it or not, we are constitutional monarchy with an un-elected Head of State. It is rather presumptuous to believe that the Prime Minister can act like a monarch or be allowed to act thus.

Mrs May commanded a majority of votes - in the June 2017 -  and increased the share of the vote of her party so she must have done something right. Unfortunately , for her, the Labour party did something right, as far as the electorate was concerned, and also substantially increased its share of the vote, This meant that for geographical reasons the Labour party was able to take seats from the Conservatives but not vice versa. In Scotland a similar swing to the Conservatives and Labour took place but the only party that could lose seats was the SNP.

The result of all this means that the party that gained the most votes lost control of the UK parliament. The conservatives now need to operate with the consent of the Democratic Unionist Party  (DUP) of Northern Ireland. The DUP  with  some 300,000 voters obtained 10 MPs. The Green party with over 500,000 votes got 1 MP and UKIP with over 500,000 votes got no MP.

The first past the post system of General Elections does not always ensure that a party with the most votes becomes the party of government because the the system relies upon the distribution of votes across all the constituencies rather than the proportion of votes received by the parties.

The  February 1974 was a case in point; the Labour party won fewer votes but was able to form a minority government. But they had to submit to another General Election in October 1974 which they won with a majority of  just 3 seats. This lead to a serious problem for the Labour party which was severely divided over Britain's membership of the EEC as it was called then: "Leavers" in the Labour party, who were in the majority, were threatening to bring the government down and let the Conservatives win a subsequent election. Harold Wilson, the then Labour Prime Minister, decided to resolve the problem of Europe by organising a referendum which "Remainers" won by about 60% to 40%. Does all this sound familiar except for the referendum majority? The majority for remain shut the "Leavers" up, except for the ideologues, for a long time. However, it did not change the arithmetic in Parliament and the instability of government with a tiny majority led to an economic crisis in 1976 The Labour government had to ask for a loan from the IMF.

Britain now faces a similar position to the Labour government elected in 1974. Problems over Europe and minority or tiny majority government. In 1975  the EEC referendum largely resolved the problems over Europe but minority government lead to an economic crisis.

The 2017 position is now worse than that of 1974 to 1976. We have a minority government, a faltering economy and terrible uncertainty over leaving the EU. We have all the ingredients for a major financial crisis which could be sparked off at anytime before we leave the EU. Business confidence is starting to erode and we need  quick decisions about how we are to leave the EU. However, divisions within the two major parties will prevent this from happening. Perhaps, only a major financial crisis will see the politicians making common sense decisions.

We cannot reverse the decision to leave the EU without the consent of our 27 other EU partner countries. If we walk away from the EU completely along with a minority government, there will be severe economic difficulties facing Britain. We risk losing tariff free access to the Single Market with non-tariff barriers also being imposed on our trade. If we leave the Customs Union we lose free trade agreements with both the EU and 37 other nations states including Canada; all these agreements will take years to replace before we start negotiating new trade deals with the likes of the USA, Australia and India. A politically weakened Britain will be passing around the begging bowl - complete humiliation beckons.

To avert an increasingly likely financial crisis and damaging long term talks and transitional arrangements we need quick decisions. The best way to achieve this would be to stay in the Customs Union and the Single Market. The British electorate must face up to some sort of freedom of movement of people otherwise we face economic problems. We have to act quickly so we have to make leaving the EU as simple as possible. The EU has got the upper hand and quite rightly, from their point of view, they want to "steal" our financial services industry and our manufacturing trade. The British people must face up to this.

Most of all, politicians from all parties must face up to the reality that the first past the post system quite often does not produce the best result. Mrs May has now been weakened by this system even though she won the majority of votes.  The public must face up to the reality that badly organised referendums do not always produce a convenient result which silences opposition. The 2016 EU referendum did not show that there was not an overwhelming majority in favour of change.

I voted to leave the EU in 1975, but a 60% to 40% vote to remain shut me up and I got on with my life. As far as I am concerned the second EU  referendum in 2016 was too close to override the 1975 result and , therefore, it lacks credibility. A substantial proportion of the electorate have now rejected the "no deal is better than a bad deal" nonsense. 57% of electors did not vote for a conservative government or manifesto and their views must be taken into account.

The government must now show the way forward and quickly to take the majority of the population with them. The government  must  make it clear to the population that the only way forward is to accept the free movement of people from the EU to Britain and vice versa. A severe financial crisis might mean that Britain will need to ask for the EU to help us out. We might then see rule from Europe imposed upon us. The humiliation will be complete.

Britain needs to change its attitude. It does not help holding bitter recriminations against Theresa May - she must stay in place even though she made mistakes. She must stay in place at least until the government can publish a how-and-why way forward for the the exit of the EU. A solution which is acceptable to the whole of the British people: leavers, remainers and non-voters alike. It needs to publish a solution which satisfies the needs of the young and the old.

Our nation must reform our winner takes all constitution which is so easily manipulated by ideologues. The policy towards the EU has been manipulated by ideologues within the Conservative, Labour and UKIP parties. The ideologues have never demonstrated that an overwhelming majority of the electorate was in favour of leaving the EU, or the Single Market and Customs Union. It is time for a change and time for these politicians to shut up; but they won't and they now represent a danger to the economic fabric of our state.

Referendums on a first past the post system should be banned. There should be a two thirds majority for change or compulsory voting to show that a majority of the whole electorate is in favour of change.

Unfortunately all the fears that I have expressed about leaving the EU are now coming true. Completely reversing forty years of EU membership has now become much more difficult and dangerous. Don't thing for one minute that it cannot happen here. It is time to learn from history.