European Union Referendum - why bother ?

The arguments are beginning to hot up. There are a few realities which have to be faced. There is very little debate about what will happen if Britain decides to leave the EU.

Just like 1975, when we last had a referendum about the EU there are two very vocal camps who want to leave.

There are the traditionalists and the very left wing activists. In 1975 they joined forces to get Britain to leave the EU but of course they had two very different visions for the future. Both camps need a reality check.

Many very left wing activists believe that the EU prevents the UK from becoming a socialist state. If we leave the EU it would be easier to campaign for socialism and achieve it - so they think. Nothing could be further from the truth. Many left wing activists act with almost a religious fervour which is not appealing to the voters of the UK who are rather secularist in their opinions. It is highly unlikely that British people will ever vote for the types of left activists who advocate hard line socialism in a general election. The hard line activists are deluding themselves if they think that leaving the EU will help their cause.

The "hard left" has made an unholy alliance with a group of right wingers who somehow think that Britain can return to its past glories, when Britain ruled the waves and could control what was happening. They believe that everybody except the British should do what they are told. They believe that Britain should dictate the terms in Europe. This, for them,  means pure free trade only but free trade based on favourable terms for Britain. Free movement of goods, services and capital  but without "johnny foreigner" being allowed to come to Britain and do what he likes or scrounge off us. The Brits should have freedom to travel anywhere they like, however. What these little Englanders have forgotten is that Britain no longer has either the military power or economic weight to influence anybody. Britain cannot push around the USA, China and Russia because they have got bigger nuclear arsenals, bigger armies and navies than us. And, more importantly bigger economies.

We can't even push around the French any more in a military sense. France has got a bigger army than Britain with troops which are just as well trained and equipped. France has got nuclear weapons too. France has got an aircraft carrier with fighter/ bomber jets. Britain has got an aircraft carrier with just helicopters on board. It will be no use sending a gunboat to Calais if the French don't do as they are told.

The harsh reality which everyone in Britain has to face whether they are hard left activists or little Englanders or just middle of the road centrists, is you cannot always get what you want. Sometimes you have to negotiate and sometimes it is best to co-operate with other people who have similar interests to you.

So what happens if Britain votes to leave the EU? There are two possibilities. We join the EEA or we go it alone completely and negotiate trade agreements and freedom of movement with the individual countries of the EU; but that is if the other countries want to play ball.

Joining the EEA is an option and it is probably the preferred option of the government for economic reasons. British industry will be horrified if tariffs are drawn up against us. The finance industry will be wary that large banks etc. will move their head quarters to Frankfurt. Germany would love to see this happening.
If we negotiate to join the EEA then we will have to agree to the free movement of people across the EEA and EU. Xenophobes will be horrified by this. We will have to pay billions into the EU budget to join the free trade area but none of money comes back - much of our contribution to the EU  ends up coming back. We shall end up paying more. We shall have to implement EU regulations, just like Norway, with no say how those regulations are formulated. Britain does not really have that much  economic power to insist upon better terms especially with disgruntled neighbours. Many Euro-sceptics may insist on another referendum about whether we want to join the EEA or not. It will take years to negotiate our exit from the EU and this negotiation will be added to by an application to join the EEA. Does our nation really want all this?

Do we want Britain to have less power and to implement the regulations of the EU without any say? At the moment Britain has a veto  to stop EU regulations which really go against our national intereests. We were not forced to join either the Euro or  the Schengen agreement. To join the EEA to protect our economy we might be forced to join Schengen - if it still exists. Heaven forbid, we might be forced to join the Euro.

What happens if we go it alone without the EU or the EEA? Do you really think that we can do what we like ? With regard to migrants, economics will dictate that we shall have to accept a substantial number of EU citizens to help keep our economy going. Britons are reluctant to become farm workers and they don't have the skills. Who is going to pick our strawberries?

We could introduce a work permit and visa system to prevent migration. But, if we introduce a visa system for EU and EEA citizens to be allowed into the country, then do you think that the EEA and the EU will not reciprocate? What happens when British lorry drivers are stuck in long queues having their passports checked? What happens if vital components are stuck in a queue whilst French lorry drivers wait to have their documents checked at Dover? Yes, at Dover, because the French will not implement a treaty which holds up their businessmen and traders on French soil. France will move the British borders back to Dover and Folkstone, if we try to get tough. Belgium will do the same. It is unrealistic to turn the clock back; we have to allow free movement of people whether we are in Europe or not.

Who is going to come to Britain for a holiday if they have to get a visa? I suggest not many. Who is going to have cultural exchanges with us if we have to get visas?  No one is.

At the moment all EEA and EU citizens are allowed to open businesses in each others countries and sit as company directors. What will it do for Britain's trade if this stops? It will only decline. What EU or EEA citizen is going to trade with a country which demands work permits and visas and prevents foreigners from easily running a business?

If we leave the EU and EEA we will have to negotiate some form of customs arrangement otherwise vital goods and components will be stuck in the queue whilst customs officers on both sides of the channel examine the documentation -that's good for trade isn't it?

Going it alone and getting tough on migration will not work. You cannot have free movement of goods, capital and services without free movement of people. People drive business and where there are no people there is no business.

Yes, the EU imposes lots of bureaucracy but we will have to impose all sorts of bureaucracy if we cannot negotiate an effective customs union and system for allowing people to move freely.

All in all going it alone will be a terrible option  and  we would still be forced to accept free movement of people. The xenophobes will be disappointed as they voted for change and they could stir up trouble if they don't get their way.

We will have to negotiate a customs union.  We will keep our head of state and drive on the left . We will keep the Houses of Parliament , the Church of England and the judiciary. The major aspects of our life will not change as they didn't when we joined the EU. We will still play cricket and drink warm beer on a Sunday. We will still go to French and Italian restaurants and drink wine instead of beer if we want to. We will still have free speech in or out of the EU.

Nothing much will change.

Of course, leaving will keep the little Englanders happy along with their hard line socialist bedfellows. But, the reality could be that we could be heading for niggling trouble.

If we leave altogether  then bureaucrats will see to it that life will be made more difficult for all British and EU citizens. There will be immigration queues where they really check your passports as you go on holiday. Business men and women will end up wasting time in immigration queues. Property rights for British citizens in the EU will be made more difficult. Husbands and wives and children might have to join different queues at borders where one spouse is British and the other is French or German . You will have to pay duty when you come home with a boot full of wine.

If we really get tough and ask all 3 million EU citizens to go home then 3 million British will be sent back. That means that 6 million people and their families will be mighty annoyed with British politicians and the British people in general.

There will be other problems. What happens if Scotland votes to stay in the EU? Will there be another referendum to decide if Scotland leaves the UK? And what happens if it votes to leave? There will more negotiations. Britain leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK.  This is a recipe for chaos it could take 10 to 12 years to sort out all this mess. Wales could follow suit and Northern Ireland too. Little England could be left out in the cold.

Why not accept your fate and vote to stay in and enjoy free travel and come home with a boot full of wine to drown your sorrows. Why not enjoy your strawberries and cream by courtesy of a Bulgarian farm hand. Just go down  the road and enjoy a curry at your local Indian restaurant  but courtesy of a Bangladeshi  waiter - would your meal be the same if it was served by a disgruntled Brit? And, if you really don't like developments in England  then you will still have the right to sell up and move to a forest in France where there is no-one to disturb you; you can have a little England in France.