Bombing Syria again

Tonight the UK parliament will vote whether to bomb ISIS in Syria or not. I have no doubt that parliament will vote to approve the proposed military action. This will be a mistake. I can think of only one case where a country or military force has capitulated as a result of bombing and that is Japan at the end of the second world war. The use of nuclear weapons changed the course of the war and Japan's eventual surrender. Even after the the first nuclear bomb was dropped on Hiroshima the military leaders were reluctant to surrender; it was only after a second nuclear bomb was dropped on Nagasaki that the Emperor of Japan insisted that the war was over.

The US lost the Vietnam war even they they had dropped more conventional bombs on North Vietnam than bombs dropped in the second world war.

The Iraq war was "won" only with the aid of troops on the ground and the peace was lost.

Likewise the bombing of Libya by Britain and France gained a hollow victory which eventually left a power vacuum, some of which has been filled by ISIS. Our enemy is growing stronger by feeding off the chaos caused by bombing. They are after all a guerilla army which is perfectly capable of digging itself in and fighting amongst the destruction. The bombing campaigns of Assad, Russia and the West have failed and will continue to do so until a force of troops is organised to defeat ISIS. Even if ISIS is defeated, in a conventional war sense, they will still be able to survive by fighting guerilla actions in Syria, Iraq and North Africa. ISIS will still be able to attack Europe using "fifth columnists" who have been inspired by a false cause. A bombing campaign alone will not achieve military or political results or any sort of victory.

The best method of achieving peace in both Iraq and Syria and Libya is by using diplomacy and political expediency which is under the guidance of the UN. The nations involved in the conflict will have to  put aside their national interests and organise a ceasefire. Assad and the official Syrian regime should be prevailed upon to stop bombing civilians. Unofficial guerillas should be ordered to disarm and if they do not then a UN peacemaking force should do the job. After the ceasefire, a UN peacekeeping force should then protect the country until there are new elections. The international community might have to prepare for Syria being split up into new nations or being governed as a federation or confederation of states. Even if the UN is involved and is given the power to organise a settlement then peace will only come after many years.

There is really no alternative. The status quo has no hope of succeeding whilst all of the protagonists disagree about their objectives and the future for Syria. Britain's plan is to be part of a factional coalition that has no plan.Of course we should consider helping one of best friends and firmest allies - France. However, the French president has failed to obtain agreement for a grand coalition supported by both the US and Russia; whilst this situation persists there will be more innocent civilians killed and more brave airmen shot down. There will be more refugees and years more of tragic war.

Bombing and war should only ever be used as a last resort to resolve conflicts. I can think of only one war that I would have willing fought in and that is the war against Hitler who was determined to use violence despite the terrible consequences for his nation and him personally. Most other wars since the second world war could have been avoided or prevented by UN action. Bombing without purpose is simply futile and counter productive. We should not be so naive to believe that our enemy will not attack us back so more bloodshed should be expected - on European and US soil as well.

We need politicians who can lead us with sufficient imagination and rationality to recognise that bombing alone will not work. We need leaders who can organise a sensible coalition and act in concert with the UN. Sadly, this is not the case and I can only think that the horrors will continue for many more years to come. There is not much hope.