Test and Trace Chaos

 The British national track and trace programme for Covid 19 is failing big time. They are using Excel spreadsheets to support their database. The most junior computer programmer knows that you do not use a spreadsheet program to support a national database which in time will contain millions of records.  When I used to run projects I banned the use of spreadsheets. People are tempted to use them for everything including project plans. You can fill in the boxes with text and colour the boxes in:  they look pretty but most of the time they contain useless information. Spreadsheets are perfect for accountants, bookkeepers and scientists analysing figures. Only my project officer, who prepared the budgets, was allowed to use a spreadsheet. If you need to use boxes in your reports then you can use Word. 

If the Test and Trace system continues to abuse the Excel spreadsheet program then the project will  continue to fail.

In 1962 we had an outbreak of Smallpox in Great Britain; there was a vaccine but it was in very short supply. Local public health authorities held the epidemic at bay by using an effective test and trace system using pen and paper - there were no PC's or Computer Tablets and Smart 'phones available.The contacts of those who caught the disease were traced and isolated in hospitals and all by manual methods.  They had no choice for in the 1962 epidemic there was a 30% death rate. They saved thousands of people with simple measures until vaccine supplies came up to speed. Local public health did not need a £10 billion system, which has failed, they used pen and paper and boots on the ground. We could learn something from those days but we are probably too decadent and arrogant.

Until a vaccine comes along washing your hands and wearing a mask will not provide adequate protection, the Covid virus will still spread - this is obvious. The only measures that will keep the virus at bay is for everyone to keep their distance and to isolate the infected and their contacts. We need a test and trace system that works and urgently. 

We need to control this virus and get our economy working again. We have no choice; get the pencil and paper out and get the boots on the ground. Stop the pretence that anything else will work well enough to stop the virus in its tracks.

And he wasn't wearing a mask

 No one deserves to suffer from a Covid 19 infection no matter what you think of them and if they are a politician whatever their policies are. The world's press and media are now going into to overdrive to analyse President Trump's activities before and after he was tested positive for the virus. They are also analysing who spread it to him and who he might have spread it to. The fact is no one knows for sure and never will. His contacts must all be identified now and tested and be quarantined.

Many people are now pointing the finger at people not wearing masks in the White House.  It's as if wearing a mask is the sole guarantee that you will not catch Covid 19 or spread it. There is no absolute proof of this.

There have been few studies conducted in the field which prove or disprove the efficacy of wearing a mask. Randomised Controlled Trials are not really feasible and would  possibly be unethical if  conducted on an unsuspecting public. We can only rely upon observations or computer modelling to make a judgement. My own view is that even though I wear a mask when required I doubt that it affords much protection to myself or others: to rely upon masks alone to counteract infection rates would be irresponsible.

My problem from observations is that most people do not wear masks  correctly. They do not wash their hands before putting them on or removing them. They wave them around and some people take them off and place them on the table or similar in front of them. They do not put the mask in a sealed container after use. I even watched a child wipe his mask on the arm rests of a tube train without his mother warning him not to do so. It is also apparent that many people do not change their masks frequently. Incorrect use of a mask probably negates their effectiveness in reducing the spread of droplets. Masks are possibly becoming fomites that help spread infection. We must all be more careful.

Likewise, washing your hands may help to reduce the spread of the virus and protect everyone. I wash my hands assiduously but I am not confident that this measure alone would stop me either catching the virus or spreading it. We all touch our faces unconsciously and often several times a minute. Who washes their hands every time after touching their nose our mouth even if they are conscious of the habit?

A recent modelling exercise conducted by a super computer in Japan concluded that visors were almost useless at protecting wearers from Covid 19 infection or stop the spread of the virus. This study was not conducted in the field so it is quite possible that in the real world a visor does confer some protection and if it makes the wearer more confident to go out then so much the better.

It seems to me that the best way to stop the spread of the virus and  help to prevent yourself from catching it, is social distance and adequate ventilation in rooms where you meet people. Also, it is probably wise to reduce your contacts with people when the infection rates go up. In my local area the infection rate has risen to a level where my wife and I are considering not going to restaurants as frequently and reducing our contacts with friends and family - the infection rate is now just over 20 cases per 100,000 people. The best way do reduce infections when there is a lack of a vaccine is for test a, trace and isolation of both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. This must be done efficiently.

Politicians have to meet people and sign papers etc. They cannot work in isolation and should not be blamed if they do not wear masks all the time. The masks may not protect them. It is no surprise to me that some politicians have become infected . The risks are high for them.

I was surprised that President Macron did not catch the virus when he was mobbed by a crowd in Beirut. The crowd were seeking succour and at one point his mask slipped off. His entourage must have been pulling its hair out. Was he brave or foolhardy? As a politician he no doubt felt the need to get close to the people. Brave or foolhardy he was lucky that he got away with it. 

Brave or foolhardy President Trump was unlucky and so was his wife. I do not agree with Trump's policies or his public statements but I feel no personal animosity towards him and I wish him and his wife and his family and friends speedy recoveries.

"Illegal Immigrants"

 Why is the government wasting precious time to consider harbouring asylum seekers and so called "illegal immigrants" off-shore.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/01/uk-offshore-detention-proposal-could-create-human-rights-disaster-australian-experts-warn

Nothing is going to stem the tide of people migrating across the world. Asylum seekers have the right in international law to be allowed their freedom of movement once they arrive and have been registered.

Some migrants are not asylum seekers and have entered the UK illegally for economic reasons. Along with the asylum seekers, that get to our shores by unconventional means, they are the world's most brave, resourceful and enterprising citizens and probably the most amicable. Why not give all migrants the opportunity to help themselves to rebuild their lives whilst adding to the economic progress of the nation?

It is my opinion that "illegal economic migrants" should be registered and given a substantial period of time to establish themselves in good jobs or start successful businesses. If they have not done so after a fair period of time they would be told to leave. Once the migrants have become established in the UK then their families should be allowed to join them. This would be better than the cruel system that we have got now; the migrants are here to stay, as there is a 40,000 backlog of deportations. The current system is unrealistic and  unmanageable: it will not work. 

Surely, my proposal would be better than the inhumane system of jailing them or harbouring them offshore. 

It is time for our nation to get real about migration.