Fishermen let down by Brexit deal - you just have to suck it up

It seems that a majority of fishermen voted for Brexit in the belief that they would be freed from the constraints of the EU common fisheries policy. Britain would become a sovereign coastal state which would be free to do as it liked and british fishermen would be able to obtain the lion's share of fish caught in British coastal waters.  It now seems that they feel they have been sold down the river.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/26/deal-fishing-industry-boris-johnson-betrayal-eu-demands

You were warned what would happen by the remain campaign and it is no use complaining if you voted for Brexit. Sovereignty does not work the way you wish it to. Every country in the world including the US has to compromise on sovereignty when they join organisations such as NATO, The WTO and the UN. The US is obliged to send its daughters and sons into death or danger to protect Latvia if it is attacked. The UK is a member of NATO and must do the same. The UK and the US pool their sovereignty for the greater good. Brexiters have never really understood this. They have thought ideologically. They have decided to leave the EU simply because they do not like their fellow Europeans from having any say in British affairs. They also voted to leave the EU because they resented Romanian  and Bulgarians being allowed to come to Britain "freely" to pick strawberries.

The Fishermen, are now confronted with the "realpolitik" of international relations as all their hopes and dreams have been dashed.To get a poor trade deal for the rest of the UK their dreams had to be sacrificed, and they have probably ended up in a worse position than before we left the EU. Their fellow citizens by a small majority voted for this.

Britain cannot afford to be totally sovereign and soon we will hear other complaints. British companies will now be forced to fill in mountains of paperwork to export to the EU and this will increase the price of their products on the EU market - our biggest one. There will be delays to exports and this will increase prices. Britain will become a less attractive place to invest in for institutional investors. Young people won't be able to get temporary jobs in Europe. EU students will be reluctant to come to British universities because of visa requirements and extra costs  and this will affect revenues. There will be queues at the borders for British people to travel to Europe. British businessmen and women will be denied seats on the boards of EU companies unless they have a visa. The problems will be endless.

There will be an EU border down the Irish Sea. Would the US allow an EU border between New York and New Jersey states? A weakened Britain has no choice but to accept the humiliation of giving away its sovereignty. The EU and the US forced us to do this to ensure peace in Ireland. The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement and Trade Deals offered you a Turbot  but you got a Sand Eel  which is about to go rotten. Don't complain if you voted for it, this is the price you pay for an imaginary absolute sovereignty.

C19 Epidemic

 How could a country get into such a mess over the C19 epidemic? The relaxation of the social distancing rules for Christmas is bordering on the irresponsible. In London, where I live, the cases of C19 are rising sharply despite the latest lockdown. The rise in infections is being driven by the schools not being able to ensure social distancing amongst the pupils. We have been warned by the WHO that wearing masks is insufficient to prevent the spread of the virus. This is something that I worked out for myself months ago. To curb infections everyone must adopt distancing measures of at least one meter and practice hand hygiene as well as wearing masks in confined spaces. Clearly this is not working in schools.

The WHO also recommends targeted testing and the  isolation of anyone who has contracted the virus. Clearly this is not working despite billions of pounds being spent on the national system. Test and isolation is best left to the local public health authorities but they have been starved of funds and resources. 

The best course of action to control the virus would have been to lock down the nation whilst the pupils were off school. With a bit of imagination lonely or old people could have been catered for without risking their health or anyone else's.

The WHO is not recommending a Christmas free for all for good reason.

As I have said before, we have become a decadent society where excellence hardly exists. Let's hope most people ignore the Christmas relaxation of social distancing rules. The the nation's health and its economy will then be given a chance to recover. Recovery will require careful thought, planning and self control and not sudden changes of mind, otherwise we shall drift from one lockdown to another and thousands more will die unnecessarily and thousands more businesses will go broke. This is not a good prospect for our nation. The best advice is stay at home but I fear vast numbers will not follow it.

The Crown

I saw a clip of this TV series production on breakfast television. It confirmed that I was correct to assume that I was not missing anything that was important and that I am right not watch new episodes. I am not interested in the factual or fictional private lives of the monarchy or anyone else for that matter as long as they do not affect the political or constitutional life of the state.

I wholeheartedly agree with Simon Jenkins' view  in the Guardian, that fake history is corrosive.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/16/the-crown-fake-history-news-tv-series-royal-family-artistic-licence

The British state can be likened to a "Crowned Republic" where the monarch has little or no power or means to influence or alter political or constitutional events. The monarch's prerogative powers have all been delegated to the Prime Minister. If political and policy mistakes are made it is the fault of the government not the monarchy. 

There is nothing wrong with Prince Charles expressing his views about architecture or climate change; he is entitled to do this. Most of his views have been ignored anyway perhaps to our detriment. 

He should be left alone to enjoy what remains of his private life.  There is really no need to invent fiction and false history just to titillate the public to make money.

US despair about the their democracy

 Many millions of American citizens must be in despair about the state of politics and democracy in the US after seeing the president accusing some of the state administrations of election fraud. He even cited republican states of indulging in this. American citizens can  make up their own minds about this. Regrettably, many citizens still find this behaviour acceptable.

There is no need for despair for the future if the past is anything to go by. Let's look at some of the the great politicians that the US has produced in the past:  George Washington. Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King, John F Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, FDR, Barack Obama,  Michelle Obama and General Eisenhower to name but a few.

Women are under-represented in the pantheon of  US leaders but could Kamala Harris soon be included? Will Joe Biden be able to live up to the reputation that he was awarded the greatest number of votes, for the presidency, by the American public?

The US has had a great numbers of political heroes , but none so great the as the volunteers who counted the votes without fear or favour. They did this despite the threats of violence and the false accusations of graft: they all deserve national recognition, and history will recognise their valiant efforts.

Test and Trace Chaos

 The British national track and trace programme for Covid 19 is failing big time. They are using Excel spreadsheets to support their database. The most junior computer programmer knows that you do not use a spreadsheet program to support a national database which in time will contain millions of records.  When I used to run projects I banned the use of spreadsheets. People are tempted to use them for everything including project plans. You can fill in the boxes with text and colour the boxes in:  they look pretty but most of the time they contain useless information. Spreadsheets are perfect for accountants, bookkeepers and scientists analysing figures. Only my project officer, who prepared the budgets, was allowed to use a spreadsheet. If you need to use boxes in your reports then you can use Word. 

If the Test and Trace system continues to abuse the Excel spreadsheet program then the project will  continue to fail.

In 1962 we had an outbreak of Smallpox in Great Britain; there was a vaccine but it was in very short supply. Local public health authorities held the epidemic at bay by using an effective test and trace system using pen and paper - there were no PC's or Computer Tablets and Smart 'phones available.The contacts of those who caught the disease were traced and isolated in hospitals and all by manual methods.  They had no choice for in the 1962 epidemic there was a 30% death rate. They saved thousands of people with simple measures until vaccine supplies came up to speed. Local public health did not need a £10 billion system, which has failed, they used pen and paper and boots on the ground. We could learn something from those days but we are probably too decadent and arrogant.

Until a vaccine comes along washing your hands and wearing a mask will not provide adequate protection, the Covid virus will still spread - this is obvious. The only measures that will keep the virus at bay is for everyone to keep their distance and to isolate the infected and their contacts. We need a test and trace system that works and urgently. 

We need to control this virus and get our economy working again. We have no choice; get the pencil and paper out and get the boots on the ground. Stop the pretence that anything else will work well enough to stop the virus in its tracks.

And he wasn't wearing a mask

 No one deserves to suffer from a Covid 19 infection no matter what you think of them and if they are a politician whatever their policies are. The world's press and media are now going into to overdrive to analyse President Trump's activities before and after he was tested positive for the virus. They are also analysing who spread it to him and who he might have spread it to. The fact is no one knows for sure and never will. His contacts must all be identified now and tested and be quarantined.

Many people are now pointing the finger at people not wearing masks in the White House.  It's as if wearing a mask is the sole guarantee that you will not catch Covid 19 or spread it. There is no absolute proof of this.

There have been few studies conducted in the field which prove or disprove the efficacy of wearing a mask. Randomised Controlled Trials are not really feasible and would  possibly be unethical if  conducted on an unsuspecting public. We can only rely upon observations or computer modelling to make a judgement. My own view is that even though I wear a mask when required I doubt that it affords much protection to myself or others: to rely upon masks alone to counteract infection rates would be irresponsible.

My problem from observations is that most people do not wear masks  correctly. They do not wash their hands before putting them on or removing them. They wave them around and some people take them off and place them on the table or similar in front of them. They do not put the mask in a sealed container after use. I even watched a child wipe his mask on the arm rests of a tube train without his mother warning him not to do so. It is also apparent that many people do not change their masks frequently. Incorrect use of a mask probably negates their effectiveness in reducing the spread of droplets. Masks are possibly becoming fomites that help spread infection. We must all be more careful.

Likewise, washing your hands may help to reduce the spread of the virus and protect everyone. I wash my hands assiduously but I am not confident that this measure alone would stop me either catching the virus or spreading it. We all touch our faces unconsciously and often several times a minute. Who washes their hands every time after touching their nose our mouth even if they are conscious of the habit?

A recent modelling exercise conducted by a super computer in Japan concluded that visors were almost useless at protecting wearers from Covid 19 infection or stop the spread of the virus. This study was not conducted in the field so it is quite possible that in the real world a visor does confer some protection and if it makes the wearer more confident to go out then so much the better.

It seems to me that the best way to stop the spread of the virus and  help to prevent yourself from catching it, is social distance and adequate ventilation in rooms where you meet people. Also, it is probably wise to reduce your contacts with people when the infection rates go up. In my local area the infection rate has risen to a level where my wife and I are considering not going to restaurants as frequently and reducing our contacts with friends and family - the infection rate is now just over 20 cases per 100,000 people. The best way do reduce infections when there is a lack of a vaccine is for test a, trace and isolation of both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. This must be done efficiently.

Politicians have to meet people and sign papers etc. They cannot work in isolation and should not be blamed if they do not wear masks all the time. The masks may not protect them. It is no surprise to me that some politicians have become infected . The risks are high for them.

I was surprised that President Macron did not catch the virus when he was mobbed by a crowd in Beirut. The crowd were seeking succour and at one point his mask slipped off. His entourage must have been pulling its hair out. Was he brave or foolhardy? As a politician he no doubt felt the need to get close to the people. Brave or foolhardy he was lucky that he got away with it. 

Brave or foolhardy President Trump was unlucky and so was his wife. I do not agree with Trump's policies or his public statements but I feel no personal animosity towards him and I wish him and his wife and his family and friends speedy recoveries.

"Illegal Immigrants"

 Why is the government wasting precious time to consider harbouring asylum seekers and so called "illegal immigrants" off-shore.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/01/uk-offshore-detention-proposal-could-create-human-rights-disaster-australian-experts-warn

Nothing is going to stem the tide of people migrating across the world. Asylum seekers have the right in international law to be allowed their freedom of movement once they arrive and have been registered.

Some migrants are not asylum seekers and have entered the UK illegally for economic reasons. Along with the asylum seekers, that get to our shores by unconventional means, they are the world's most brave, resourceful and enterprising citizens and probably the most amicable. Why not give all migrants the opportunity to help themselves to rebuild their lives whilst adding to the economic progress of the nation?

It is my opinion that "illegal economic migrants" should be registered and given a substantial period of time to establish themselves in good jobs or start successful businesses. If they have not done so after a fair period of time they would be told to leave. Once the migrants have become established in the UK then their families should be allowed to join them. This would be better than the cruel system that we have got now; the migrants are here to stay, as there is a 40,000 backlog of deportations. The current system is unrealistic and  unmanageable: it will not work. 

Surely, my proposal would be better than the inhumane system of jailing them or harbouring them offshore. 

It is time for our nation to get real about migration.  

What happened to the Bats

 A couple of weeks ago on a balmy evening just after sunset a solitary pipistrelle bat flew over our garden. Forty years we would have seen a flock of a dozen or or perhaps even more. Ours was the first bat that I had seen over the garden all summer. The bat population in the UK has been devastated. What has happened to them? Apart from their general environment being destroyed they are suffering from a marked fall in their insect prey.

Likewise, I am seeing a marked decrease in the number of Swifts flying over our house each summer. They feed on insects.

All over Europe, we are seeing an accelerating decline in insect populations. Insects are a vital  part of our ecology, they help maintain the fertility of the soil and it is not just bees that pollinate plants but wasps, flies, beetles, butterflies and moths too. Without insects it is not just Swifts and Bats which will die out, but we are at risk too. Climate change contributes to the demise of insects, but it quite possible that the demise of insects will affect human populations before global warming kicks in to finish us off. We would do well to protect our environment before it is too late.

Reneging on the EU Withdrawal Agreement

 I find it astonishing that the government should seek to renege on the EU Withdrawal Agreement  and that any British Citizen would agree with this course of action. The Withdrawal Agreement was ratified by the UK parliament under full knowledge of its clauses and its implications. Repudiating the agreement will damage the peace process in Northern Ireland which is not fully established yet. It will also damage relations between the UK government and the devolved governments in Wales and Scotland and will exacerbate the desire of Scots to leave the UK.

 It will damage international relations: the leader of the Democrats in the US congress has said that congress will not ratify a US trade agreement with the UK if the peace in Northern Ireland is jeopardised by the UK not fulfilling their obligations. Also, and perhaps above all, no state will trust the UK again in their international dealings.

Quite possibly, the EU will refuse to ratify a trade agreement with the UK, when the UK repudiates large sections of the Withdrawal Agreement - they could even impose sanctions   UK citizens have voted for this state of affairs they may come to regret this folly.

"Cor Blimey" 160 billion to pay for EU bad loans - don't pay 'em

A senior Brexit politician has claimed that Britain will have to pay 160 billion towards the liabilities of the European Investment Bank and other EU financial Institutions. The gutter press has jumped upon this assertion to blame the EU once again for making the UK pay money unjustifiably to its coffers.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1317830/Brexit-news-Eu-loans-Boris-Johnson-withdrawal-agreement-Iain-Duncan-Smith

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12295372/britain-bill-160billion-eu-loans-brexit/

These stories are probably un-true because the gutter press and their friends in the Brexit community tend to exaggerate and generate project fear stories.

It is quite possible that none of the loans made by EU financial institutions whilst the UK is was a member state will become non-performing and that the UK's liabilities will be zero. It is obvious to all that the UK is responsible for its share of liabilities for loans made by the EU before the UK left the European Union. To renege upon this liability would see the UK becoming an international and financial pariah state.

Every person voting for Brexit knew that we would be liable for these debts. The Withdrawal Agreement which the UK Prime Minister signed stated specifically that the UK would be liable. The Brexit MPs were so keen on exiting the EU that they ensured that parliamentary scrutiny of the deal was curtailed. 

The people of Britain and Northern Ireland were told that leaving the EU would be a "piece of cake" and that they would have an "oven ready deal" which would allow the nation to leave the EU without any political, diplomatic or financial consequences. If you were one of the 52% of those who voted for Brexit then you were duped. Unfortunately, the 17 million who voted to leave, the 15 million who voted to Remain and the 13 million who did not vote, at all, will all suffer the same adverse consequences. If you voted to leave then do not complain when Covid 19 adversity is added to by leaving the single market and customs union. Any spare money that the government had to stimulate the economy after the 31 December 2020 has been spent on the Covid 19 crisis, the treasure chest is now empty. Added to this are liabilities incurred while the UK was part of the EU. We would have been better off not leaving.

Today it was announced that there will be a Kent Access Permit to allow HGV drivers access to a limited number of roads near the port of Dover and the Eurotunnel entrance to prevent lorries destined for the EU clogging up local roads. These permits will be valid for 24 hours and lorry drivers will be personally liable to a fine for breaking the rules. If EU hauliers and drivers refuse to drive to the UK because of the extra bureaucracy then there could be shortages of food.There is no doubt that prices will go up because of the inconvenience of time being wasted.  UK hauliers and drivers will be limited in the number of licences granted to operate in the EU so they will not be able to take up any slack generated by the reluctance of EU hauliers and drivers to come to the UK.

You were warned about this by the Remain supporters  whose claims were dismissed as project fear, but if we are not careful then project fear will become a reality. However, don't complain as you will get a blue passport and it will make you feel very special, but it won't help you to emigrate to the EU if times get very tough and you feel the desire to escape all the new bureaucracy, queues and financial liabilities.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/border-in-kent-will-create-more-red-tape-for-hauliers/

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/enforcing-operation-brock-plans-in-2021/proposed-legislative-amendments-on-enforcing-operation-brock

Populist governments don't work

Populist governments don't work and history shows that they never work. They don't work because they lead the populace, that voted for them, up the garden path and they make promises that cannot be kept. They are usually completely inept and they select inept yes-men to implement their daft policies without question.

The general population does not have either the time or inclination to research policy options. They do not have the time to analyse contradictions or misinformation. They elect governments to do this job for the them: to make sensible decisions and to lead the people to support policies which benefit the nation.

In the UK we now have a government which is inept, decadent and lazy. We have seen how badly it has managed the Covid 19 health crisis. It has fouled up the purchase of protective equipment, it imposed lockdown restrictions too late, it was indecisive and has made a complete mess of testing and tracing. Britain will be lucky to avoid a national 2nd wave of infections as it has not even stamped out the first wave. It is possible that the lockdown will have been released too early with costly consequences.

The US has had similar problems with its management of the Covid 19 crisis but it still has a long way to go before the deaths per 100,000 rate equals that of the UK: likewise, Brazil. Britain has been exceptional in Europe by the way it has failed to control the virus; the deaths in France, Spain and Italy were shocking but they were nothing compared to Britain. Britain is literally the sickman of Europe.

Soon the UK civil service will be reformed to make it much more political. Reasonably competent administrators will be replaced by yes-men who will fawn over their political masters, these sycophants will preside over an administrative mess. The UK has left the EU and will now require a government and administration to have the ability to improve the economy and its productive capacity. It needs to negotiate realistically with future trade partners to improve the standard of living of all Britons. It needs to protect its farming and fishing industries. The UK  needs to protect the NHS and provide it with sufficient competent staff; to do this it may have to rely on migrant labour. The UK needs to protect its service industries and ensure that they have export markets. Britain needs to co-operate with its European partners in science ,education, the protection of the environment and foreign policy.

To recover from the pandemic caused economic crisis Britain needs to co-operate with its nearest neighbours: to improve  prospects it needs to stay in the single market and probably in the customs union as well. The UK  risks being pushed around by the EU, the US, China and now Japan. I did not think Japan would issue trade ultimatums to the UK but they have just informed the British government that they want a new trade arrangement to be agreed within the next 3 months - will this be in Britain's favour? Who will push Britain around next,India?

I would love to live in a completely sovereign country as would everyone else. This is simply not possible, Britain has signed treaties with Nato, the WTO, the UN  and other international bodies - all of which limit sovereignty. Trading with the rest of the world on WTO terms will damage the economy; it would be far better to be in the Single Market and Customs Union which will protect Britain's commercial interests.  Britain could probably negotiate observer status on the European Council to put forward its point of view. It might be able to negotiate a veto over new trade agreements negotiated by the customs union - that would be just. The UK could probably negotiate an independent legal body to judge legal disputes. The EU would probably be able to compromise on this. Britain could even negotiate equal status over foreign policy and security decisions. We should try all of this instead of engaging in "dog in the manger" populism.

The UK has  left the EU and it won't be let back in, in a hurry; when things go wrong it will be own its own.

Planning the future and managing the transition out of the EU is a thousand times more complicated than ensuring an adequate supply of protective equipment for health workers and organising a test and trace system for Covid 19 victims. So far this populist government has failed you. What chance is there of them making a success of Brexit? There is a real danger that Britain will again become the economic sickman of Europe, hopefully the populists will change course, but I doubt it. You have voted for a rough ride.

Phasing out of coal

The government is to be congratulated for phasing out coal-fired power stations. Eventually most fossil fuels will need to phased out and we will have to rely upon wind, solar and hydrothermal energy.  We will also have to rely upon energy saving domestic and industrial appliances and thermal insulation. We need to make buildings warm in the winter and cool in the the summer without air conditioning, if this is possible.

All this should have been done yesterday, but it is a start on the long road to controlling man-made climate change and mitigating the effects of greenhouse over production.

We owe it to our young people to assure them a better future.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/countdown-to-2025-tracking-the-uk-coal-phase-out#:~:text=Just%20four%20coal%20plants%20will,the%20end%20of%20March%202020.

What a mess

It is a shame that our country has got itself into such a mess over the Covid-19 crisis. I predicted this, as our country has simply become decadent and lacks excellence in all walks of life. We have simply been unable to manage the crisis as well as other countries such as Germany, New Zealand, Australia and South Korea etc.

There is now no doubt that we have been unable to contain the virus resulting in one of the worst death rates in Europe and the numbers who have died are simply shocking. Pro-rata they are much worse than the US.

If, we as a country do not face up to the facts then we will fail badly. There is some ideological belief that Britain is exceptional and superior. The British are not superior to anybody else neither are we inferior. We are a European people whose culture is essentially the same as that of our neighbours. We are a multi-cultural nation like all the others in Europe. We have their strengths and weaknesses.

Our problems stem from our political system and its "winner takes all" voting practices. This means that ideological and populist leaning governments can easily take power. Populism has been proven by history not to work: nations need leadership which operates in a truly democratic and consensual framework. We have had Prime Ministers from both political parties which are not selected  by popular vote but by party ideologues. The Prime Minister then acquires all the powers of the monarch. We have an unelected Prime Minister and Head of State rolled into one. This form of government is not fit for purpose in the twenty first century. We cannot have rule by populists and ideologues and rule by referendums where a simply majority can change the constitution. This form of government does not work. There are no checks and balances.

Our system of public health has not protected our nation as it should have done. It has been good enough to prevent hundreds of thousands dying ,so far. However, it has allowed thousands of people to die prematurely. We must face this fact.

The NHS has been overwhelmed and has not proven itself the best in the world. The staff are but they cannot operate in an environment where protective equipment is not available. GP and Dental services have almost completely shut down, patients have been left in severe pain or with untreated life threatening problems. The NHS has been overwhelmed.

Patients who are obviously infected with the virus have been released from hospital  and sent back into care homes. If this has been part of a deliberate policy then it could be considered as criminal negligence, if was accidental then it was sheer incompetence. Whatever it is, it is shameful and whoever is responsible at the top should resign or be sacked.

At one point ideologues were averring that the Covid-19 virus should be allowed to run wild. You do not have to be a professor of epidemiology to work out that with a mortality rate of 1% then  around 330,000 people would die if only 50 % of the population caught the disease. This would mean that hundreds of thousands of older people would die, as would ten of thousands of younger people. The health system would collapse and so would the economy. This "herd immunity " policy is simply mad and anyone advocating it should be sacked.

It is quite possible that after acting too slowly to lockdown the country, the government is acting too fast to end the lockdown with the result of thousands more dying and worse economic damage.

I am fed up of being confined but three or four weeks of more lockdown is preferable to months of more misery.

We need test, track and trace to be up and running now and efficiently, otherwise we could be in for severe trouble. It is time to forget ideology, populism and public relations nonsense and start leadership by  democratic consent.

Hopefully, we can get ourselves out of this mess before ideology gets us into more trouble with Brexit.

Do you want to know a secret

The public should now become increasingly alarmed at the secrecy surrounding the government's management of the Covid -19 crisis. There is no need for secrecy pertaining to the scientific advice given to the government by the SAGE committee. The scientists on this committee have a moral obligation to publish their advice. Science is based upon the fact that knowledge should be shared. The scientists on this committee should share their advice with the public and ignore requests from the government to keep secrets. If they are not prepared to do this then they should resign.

Every day the governments and their scientists either refuse to answer simple questions from journalists or they dissimulate using ramble discourse which means almost nothing.

Today the figures have been released for the number of deaths in care homes. The public will be disturbed by the thousands of older people who have been left to die without hospital treatment. Was this deliberate policy or was this incompetence, we have a right to know? Why has the bravery of the coal face workers not been recognised, as they have worked through the crisis without adequate protection and testing. There should be an apology for the deaths of  so many doctors, nurses and care workers; not mealy mouthed platitudes and excuses.

Let's have a grown up conversation about this. One of the government's scientists claimed that we should do this. Let's have a grown up conversation about why Germany has been able so far to manage both the number of infections and death rate so much better than the UK. Why is the death rate of confirmed case so much higher in the UK than in the US ?

It is not true that the NHS "has not been overwhelmed" by the crisis; so many patients with other life threatening conditions have failed to be treated. It is difficult to get a GP appointment in person and Dental services have shutdown. GPs are not visiting care homes: why?

We are in a crisis and of course things can go wrong and there are failures, but the public understands this but it expects to be told the the facts.

Containment of the virus failed and it was bound to. The spread of the virus could not be stopped so why try to pretend that containment succeeded? Tell us why it failed and how that failure could have been mitigated if we had the resources to do it.

Why have public service employees across the board not been provided with adequate protection against infection?

We need to know why public health has failed to do enough testing. Is it a shortage of tests or staff or both. Is it because of a lack of effective decision making and organisation by the government and the administration?  If we are not told why then we will suspect a cover up.

All the scientific advice should be published so that the public can decide if and where and when the advice has been ignored  or played down by the politicians.   This is in the interest of the scientists themselves in case they are being set up for a fall.

The government and SAGE committee should open the books now. The public deserve some openness and honesty, especially as they have subjected themselves to house arrest. The public have played their part and it is incumbent on the government and SAGE to publish their deliberations as a mark of respect.

Social Market Foundation

The Social Market Foundation is proposing that pensions for the elderly should be disconnected from the triple-lock, because the financial burden of saving the lives of thousands of pensioners should not fall onto the working age poor. Pensioners should therefore pay for this intergenerational generosity.

Hold on a second. Anyone over 70 is now effectively under house arrest not just to save their own lives but to stop the virus infecting the younger generations. Hundreds of thousands of pensioners do not have gardens so house arrest for them is more like a prison sentence under solitary confinement. It is punishment for nothing. How do you count the cost of this suffering? Thousands of pensioners are being left alone to suffer for the effects of Covid-19 and if they don't die they could be left with long term illness. What is the cost of this?

Even in the best of times the state pension is not exactly a King's ransom especially if you do not own your house with a paid-off mortgage. Pensioners in this situation must pay rent which will take up a substantial amount of their meagre income. Who will take over the financial burden of looking after cash strapped pensioners if these recommendations are taken up? I suggest that it will be their cash strapped daughters and sons. If you are a pensioner on your own, then hardlines.

Many pensioners do voluntary work. How do you account for this Mr Social Market Foundation think-tank economist? What happens if the pensioner can't afford to do this work anymore? Who will take their place and how much will it cost?

How much more do you want to patronise the elderly? Do you want them all to be herded into care homes to be looked after by the poor? The carer and the cared for have been denied personal protection equipment so are they all part of the herd ? Will they all have to sacrifice their lives to keep the economy going? There could be no-one left to the buy the products of the economy which could die just as quickly as a Covid -19 victim.

It is time to put some thought back into the think-tank not remove it. Time for the financial burden to be put onto broader shoulders than the working age poor, perhaps?

http://www.smf.co.uk/press-release-scrap-pensions-triple-lock-coronavirus/

Get the Covid 19 testing done

The covid 19 virus has now killed over 3,600 in the UK. This is more people killed in a few weeks than were killed in the Northern Ireland troubles covering three decades from the late 1960's. The only resemblance that the Covid 19 struggle bears to a war is that both have a first victim - the truth.

The covid 19 virus is not brutal, it is not devious, it is not intelligent and it is not trying to avoid being eliminated. The disease can be contained and eliminated by taking effective measures. These are social distancing and the protection of health and care workers and the emergency service workers.   We have got the social distancing but more needs to be done. Why should the health of doctors, nurses, care workers, policemen, ambulance workers and  pharmacists,  have their health put at risk for lack of equipment.

It i also essential that antibody tests should be started as soon as possible. Public health administrators claim that the tests are not accurate enough at 90% to be used diagnostically. This may or not be true but fairly accurate tests could still be of use for data collection rather than diagnosis. This is the ultimate key to a solution.

It looks as though these tests could be used anonymously to test the general population to find out the proportion of the population who have already recovered from infection. The tests could be done twice on each individual and any conflicting result could be ignored. The 90% that are accurate could then be used to assess how many have been infected and have recovered. Polling statisticians can predict election results quite accurately from low samples. If we were to test 20,000 people across the nation we would have a reasonable set of data to help plan for the recovery.

When the tests are 99% accurate they can be used diagnostically. Home testing by the public should be ruled out because of the risk of fraud and people misjudging their result. Allowing some people to go about business as usual and others to remain locked away is a recipe for disaster.

The time to start this testing is now, if the antibody tests are to be useful. There should  be no dithering and no excuses why we cannot do this. Singapore used experimental tests to help fight the virus why can we not follow their lead? They had nothing to lose if the testing could not provide the right result and everything to gain if they did. They succeeded to control the virus with testing and other measures. We need to find out if we can do the same.

It is time for clear headed thinking and effective management of the crisis. If  the heads of government and health administration cannot provide this now and produce a clear and honest plan for the future, then they should resign and make way for others who are more competent.

There is a cheque in the post

How many times have creditors heard the words there is a cheque in the post. My thoughts and words are my own. Often, I do not communicate them. But now I feel that I must.

A global calamity is at our feet. Our leaders, in nearly every country, are reacting and mouthing the same platitudes.

I constantly hear the words, “the ventilators are coming next week, the tests will be here next week, the human resources are coming”.

These platitudes are repeated endlessly whenever a difficult question is asked.

The words that I do not hear are “I was warned that this was coming and did very little or nothing about it. I have failed you. I resign to let someone better experienced to run things: someone from the front line who has put their life at risk for others”.

The first victim of war

Many politicians and people in the media have likened the current health emergency to a war. This is not true and off course the first victim of war is always the truth.

There  are still cruel wars being fought in Syria and Yemen. They have been going on for years with no end in sight. Hundreds of thousands have died, have been displaced and traumatised. We must not forget them in this time of crisis and be aware of what will happen if the disease spreads to their refugee camps.

Yesterday it was announced that Prince Charles had contracted the Covid 19 virus and today Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock,the prime minister and health secretary respectively, had also contracted the virus.

On social media Prince Charles was criticised for being prioritised for being tested when others do not have testing available. But come off it, he has been making an enormous number of public appearances to try to improve morale.

Likewise, the prime minister and health secretary have been meeting an enormous number of people. It is inevitable that public figures will catch the virus having put their health at risk.

No-one deserves to catch this virus and everyone has a family that does not want to see someone ill.

I am not a big supporter of the monarchical system of government but I wish Prince Charles a speedy recovery.

I am not a member of any political party, and sometimes I am sceptical about the motives of politicians but Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock have put their health on the line, so I wish them a speedy recovery.
Above all, I wish anyone who has got ill in the NHS, The Police and Fire Brigade a speedy recovery.

It is easy to be critical of others when you are sitting at home in confinement. There is no need, however, for nasty "schaden freude" comments to be posted on social media. To all those that are posting such messages, I say shut up.

Post Covid19 planning and European Co-operation

In a time of crisis there is no room for complacency and the blue skies thinking of weirdos. Obviously, people need to be told what to do to alleviate the emergency and this should be done. There should be no room for yes men, however. Authority and responsibility should be firmly linked together. If  adminstrators or civil servants ordered to do something then those doing the ordering should take responsibility. There is no other way management of a crisis can be conducted.

We need to be planning for the post Covid19 recovery now. This is no time to be thinking about anything else. The Brexit transition should be extended indefinitely.  We need to be working with our European neighbours as closely as possible to recover the health of our nations and our economies. This is no time for ideology to replace practicality.

We need the free movement of workers across Europe to help balance excesses in one nation against deficits in another. We need to allow musicians and artists to cross borders freely, to cheer us up and improve morale when the restrictions are finally lifted. We need scientists and medical staff to exchange ideas freely. We need security co-operation.

The British people are about to find out what happens when public services are denuded of resources. The health service will struggle. The Police do not have enough staff to maintain public order and to ensure that no-one is moving around or assembling unnecessarily. This situation must change, in the future there must be more resilience granted to the public services to account for an emergency.  The police,especially, are now going to have to rely upon the co-operation of the public. Probably the Army, Navy and RAF do not have enough resources to support the police in a real emergency if there is rioting or widespread social disorder.

The public must co-operate by staying at home and social distancing. Surely, it is worthwhile losing our civil liberties for a short period rather than let the virus spread uncontrolled to kill hundreds of thousands. Our economy could be damaged permanently if the the virus is allowed to "let rip".

It is time to stop the abuse of our police, ambulance and rescue forces and damage to their equipment. If you are told to disassemble or isolate yourself, or keep your distance by the police than do so without complaint.

There is some hope that drugs to alleviate symptoms will be on the market in a few months but the problem will not be solved. Only a vaccine can truly resolve the crisis.

Soon a serological test will be made available which will be able to test subjects for anti-bodies, so that doctors can tell who has already recovered from the virus, and who are still sick, and those that have not yet encountered the virus, and those who are infected but asymptomatic. This test can be done in ten minutes, and it will be a very powerful tool to help control the disease.

When a vaccine is finally available a substantial proportion  should be serologically tested before they are vaccinated to obtain demographic information about the virus. We should then be planning for the next pandemic to come our way and make sure all the equipment and people are in place before it comes a severe problem.

There is no room for complacency. Heed the warnings as well , please.

Covid-19 and Brexit

Michel Barnier has contracted Covid-19 and I wish him and everyone else who has been or will be affected good health. Michel Barnier is too much of a gentleman to blame Brexit, he is both rational and logical. To blame Brexit for his problems would be irrational just as it is irrational to blame the EU for Britain's problems.

Britain is now in a real pickle not only does it have to contend with a health and economic disaster, it also has to contend with cutting itself off from its most important trading partners after December 31st 2020. Brexit is dragging Britain further into the mire.

There is something wrong with the markets when both the FT100 index and the Pound plunge. The Bank of England has dropped interest rates to their lowest rates ever. Normally, a currency falls when interest rates go down but this time the Pound went up but how long for? The social and economic future looks grim.

Where are the unicorns and fields of milk and honey that Brexit politicians promised voters? They are all gone. Levelling up is now a dream to be left for a long time. Covid-19 will make everyone suffer but the poor will suffer most, and Brexit will make their plight worse. I would exchange Brexit anytime to be relieved of Covid-19.

Droves of doctors and nurses have returned to their home countries because of the Brexit attitude that made them feel unwelcome. We need all the health workers we can get in our hour of need. The covid virus doesn't care if you were a leave or remain voter but you could die or live with serious health consequences if there is no doctor or nurse to treat you.

Farmers need workers from the EU to pick fruits and vegetables;  they won't becoming, and this could lead to food shortages. 40% of our food comes from the EU, the lorries won't becoming, and eventually there will be extra food shortages if the crisis carries on much longer.

We have a shortage of care workers from the EU because they, too, have been made to feel unwelcome and  have gone home. Who is going to look after your grandmother or grandfather when there are severe staff shortages owing to both the covid-19 crisis and Brexit?

When this is all over, both the UK and the EU will be in desperate trouble. Britain will get over the health crisis. However, Brexit  will exacerbate the continuing economic problems, and it could finish us off. Can we really afford to have long queues at Dover and Calais to prevent food and industrial products coming in?

Can we afford to have a health service and social care system denied of health workers by the stupid bureaucracy of immigration controls. The poor will suffer most.

When this health crisis is over; Britain and the EU will have to stay very close to ensure a full recovery. Britain needs the Single Market and Customs Union and the EU needs us to stay in these organisations. Petty squabbling and nationalism won't help anyone. Mister voter and Mister Politician it is time to get real and to put the evil genie of Brexit back in its lamp.

World recession

Sooner or later there was going to be another world recession. Everything was ticking along nicely, but was it? Government, corporate and private debt has been soaring once again. Memories are very short. The Covid 19 epidemics are not the cause of the precipitate falls in the stock and oil markets but they are the catalyst of a fear which is gripping investors. Some investors are more frightened of losing all their money than their health. But, of course, losing your health is contributing to the fear. Fear is now overcoming greed and for as long as this fear lasts there will be shocks to the markets.

During the financial crisis of the 1930's we had leaders who were able to lead the world out of trouble. One such leader was Franklyn D Roosevelt, who, in my opinion, was one of the greatest US presidents; he levelled with the US public and did not lie. He assuaged the public's fears and introduced practical measures to help working people. Printing money was not enough for him. He lead the US out of recession and prepared the American economy to be strong enough to fight and defeat the forces of nationalist Germany and Japan. Without him Western liberal democracy probably would not have survived especially in Western Europe. The Soviet Union would have won in Europe and, Western Europeans would probably to this day have been subjected to Stalinist type regimes.

Today we have few Western leaders with the competence of Roosevelt. They do not have the strength of character to tell the truth or the ability to act to create economies which support the common good. Some Western leaders are either liars or bullies and sometimes both. Administrators are faced with dealing with fake news and being forced to do what they are told by incompetent leaders. This is a recipe for disaster if the beginnings of a new economic and financial crisis are not cut-off in the making.

We can but hope that someone or something will pull us through. There is a message here for Britain, which is by far the most indebted of all the G7 nations. We have left the EU, but this is not the best time to leave its single market. The EU and the UK will be best placed to work together rather than drift apart if there is a financial emergency. Let's hope that common sense will prevail but, populists are short on common sense.

Brexit Done and Dusted

There is no use crying over spilt milk. We have left the EU and we will not be going back in a hurry; despite the optimism of pro-remain politicians in the UK and Europe. I doubt that there will be much demand from the UK populace to rejoin even if there is a collapse of the economy. Many EU states simply won't want the UK back because of the damage that it will do to the EU economy. It is not just in the UK that nationalists hold sway.

Forget about the economy for a minute; the UK has now become a weakened state. The world has changed a lot since 1973 when Britain joined the EC. China has become a super-power that is now able to challenge the US. India is on its way to becoming a super-power; it has developed nuclear weapons and is capable of landing rovers on the moon. It is rapidly overtaking Britain and France both economically, diplomatically and militarily. China and India are two more giants that Britain has to contend with, but all on its own. In 1973 the world was trying to engage in free trade. Not so, now, for protectionism is the name of the game. Every state is now putting its own national interests first. The only organisation which pooled sovereignty to try to work for the common good of its constituent nations was the EU and we have just left it.

The UK must now decide what is in its national interests, it is obvious that the US is pulling us up and that China is pulling us down. Very soon we could find ourselves being pulled left by the EU with India pulling us right. Our country could become a poodle not knowing where it will end up, and with  no control of its destiny.

The UK could easily disintegrate. I am quite surprised at how quickly nationalist sentiment is growing in both Northern Ireland and Scotland. It seems to me that England is now pushing Scotland and Northern Ireland away. English politicians are ignoring the desires of the Scottish and Northern Irish electorates to be remain close to the EU. We are also seeing the growth of nationalism in Wales. We could end up having to manage the disintegration of the UK whilst trying to extract what is left of the nation from the EU.

The worse aspect of the political situation in the UK is the incompetence of government when either of the main political parties are in power. Over the last thirty years they have both presided over a fracture within our society where a significant proportion of people have been left behind. These unfortunate people have been left with failing schools, a failing health service, poor transport systems, and poor and expensive housing. They also have to contend with low wages and insecure employment. It is no wonder that they are "pissed off", and that they have turned to populist solutions, which will never work in the long run. Their future looks bleak.

Possibly, there will be a Brexit dividend for the health, wealth and unity of the nation; but can anyone expect our politicians to deliver on this given their past performance?

Don't be surprised if Brexit is a complete failure, but hope for the best.

Australian Fires

Australians are not the world's biggest producers of CO2 per capita and as far as their nation goes they are well down the "polluters" order. Western Europe has reduced its per capita production of CO2 to a far greater extent than most of the other nations of the developed world but it is nothing to shout about.

Australia is not solely responsible for the catastrophic bush fires which have raged across their nation; all of the developed nations are. We have been pumping too much CO2 into the atmosphere and it is adversely affecting the the global climate and weather.

There is no God raining down brimstone and hellfire upon the earth. Nature has no care for any country that is affected. All of the climate and weather problems are self inflicted. Australians are hardy and resourceful people who will recover from the latest weather tragedy. But will their forests fully recover? Will whole species have been wiped out by the conflagration? Will there be another climate catastrophe inflicted upon the unique habitat that is Australia?

Recent scientific research has shown that the oceans are now 1 degree celcius warmer now than in pre-industrial times. This is a colossal amount of heat energy which drive global warming for centuries. Dangerous climate change could now be unavoidable but we are still pumping more and more CO2 into the atmosphere. The warming oceans and air are now causing the release of vast quantities of methane gas, which has been stored in the sea and tundra for millennia, to add further to the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

How will we be able to cool the global climate down? Block out the sun? What would happen to farming if we did that?  Put industrial sized refrigeration units into the sea? Where would all the heat go? Back into to the atmosphere.

There is now danger that the Amazon forest could suffer catastrophic fires. What would happen if the Amazon region becomes another desert? Anything is possible.

Calling climate change campaigners prophets of doom, will not help. We can no longer afford to propagate the myth that excessive production of CO2 gas is not warming up the planet. False optimism could easily see us off. The facts have been clearly laid out  climate change is already worse than what was predicted 30 years ago.

It will be of no use to put climate activists on police lists claiming that they are terrorists. We are all adding to the problems of global warming.  We won't need to risk terrorists to kill us off as the bigger risk is adverse climate change  and we could be committing climate suicide if we are not careful. It is time for politicians to wise up along with the rest of us.

The Middle East - there is no justice

Between November 1945 and October 1946 some of of Hitler's lieutenants were brought to trial for war crimes and genocide. Hitler, himself, committed suicide for fear of being brought to trial. Other leaders such as Himmler chose to commit suicide as well, rather than face justice. In the face of the biggest crimes against humanity, the allies, who defeated Germany, made sure that that death sentences were not meted out without the chance for the accused to defend themselves. The world saw the evidence against the accused clearly laid out.

No crime in history could have been greater than the holocaust. Even so, the accused were afforded a trial although many called for the summary execution of the accused. The Western Allies did the right thing.

The tit-for-tat summary execution of the Iranian General Suleiman is a non-judicial act. It was not necessary, as he should have been  captured and brought to trial in an International Court for his alleged war crimes. He should have been given the opportunity to defend himself. The Iranian people could then see for themselves how the General  performed. Justice would have seen to be done as this would have contributed to the peace.

Middle East diplomacy is now spiralling out of control. Revenge attack will be followed by revenge attack. The region is probably heading for war. Restraint is necessary. I doubt this will happen and we could be heading for another confrontation, in the Middle East, and revenge attack will be piled upon revenge attack in a never ending cycle. It is time that politicians started talking rather than bombing.

We have a lot to learn from the history and diplomacy which lead to the prosecution of the worst war criminals in history and how the Nuremberg trials helped to promote the peace.