European War

It is hard to believe that 100 years after the start of World War 1 and 70 years after the D-Day landings , Europe is still at war.

There is the potential for the Ukraine to descend into a full civil war. We Europeans still organise our politics at the point of the gun. Civilians still have to suffer as a direct result of the conflict or because their loved ones choose to fight. There is no need for the killing of either soldiers or civilians a negotiated solution can still be found for the Ukraine. The superpowers have a responsibility to organise this.

Of course there is a lot of discussion about the justification for World War 1 and whether the sacrifice was worthwhile.

From a purely nationalistic point of view, Britain and France and their allies had to fight to defend themselves and their neighbours. Many brave men died or were injured under the most dire of circumstances. Many brave men from the US fought and died for the freedom of France, Belgium and Britain. Russia fought in vain.

My own family lost uncles in the British Army and the Royal Navy. Most families in Britain and France were touched by the War. We must not forget that most families in Germany and Austria were also touched.

Millions of young men from both sides died fighting for their countries.

From a supranational point of view World War 1 was a disaster. The "colonies" of Britain and France were expected to contribute both men and material. Thousands of Australians and Canadians died to defend colonialism.

War became industrialised and mass slaughter became institutionalised. We also saw the beginning of the institutionalised killing of civilians. This led to the industrialised murder of civilians in World War 2.

World War 1 did little to resolve European conflict and this led directly to World War 2 where the carnage was even greater.

The human species has shown itself to be unable control the direction of its ingenuity. We do not have the emotional ability to either stop the killing or limit the means by which we conduct war. Killing has now descended into a type of push button frenzy. We can kill millions by the use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and we can kill  individuals by using a drone. We cannot avoid mistakes so civilians and non-combatants have to suffer too.

From a nationalistic point of view war has winners and losers and can be justified from the standpoint of defending the homeland. I ask all readers, however, to look at a bigger picture. From the point of view of our species in general war runs the risk of being a complete disaster which could destroy all of us.  We should make every effort to prevent war wherever it might arise - in the Ukraine, in Syria, in Afghanistan, the Sudan, Central Africa, Nigeria .......

Poking the Russian Bear

I have been to Russia and I have worked with many Russian people and some of them are now my friends. I have had many conversations about Russian politics and the relationship of Russia with the West.

Russian people want to be treated with respect and to be treated as equals; they expect nothing more or nothing less. The have an ingrained fear of war. They lost 20 million people in the second world war. They also have a fear of extreme right wing politicians.

The siege of St Petersburgh, or  Leningrad as it was called in the the second world war, and the battle of Volograd, formerly Stalingrad, proved that the Russian people would tolerate the most extreme privation to defend their Motherland. During the second world war the Russian people were also prepared to support a tyrant, Stalin, to defend their nation.

The battles of Stalingrad (August 1942 to February 1943)  and Kursk in July1943  saw the complete defeat of Hitler's armies in Russia. They were the turning point of the war in Europe. Without Russia's defeat of Germany in these battles the outcome of the war could have been completely different.

Of course, we should not denigrate the war efforts of the Western nations  to create second fronts in both Italy and France. But we should understand why the Russian people expect to be treated with respect by its former allies. We should also understand that the Russians are a formidable enemy and in a war  it would better to have them on our side than against us. Roosevelt, Churchill and De Gaulle understood the "realpolitik"  of this and were prepared to respect Stalin as a result.

Against this back drop, Western politicians should think again about what is happening in the Ukraine as they have badly miscalculated. They will not admit to this in public but behind the scenes they are probably looking for a way out.

The new government in the Ukraine is really not up to the task of handling the crisis that they have created for themselves with Western help. It looks as though the people of  Western Ukraine have no more stomach for a fight with Russia than the people of Britain, France and Germany or the US for that matter. If the Russians wanted to they could invade the whole of the Ukraine and takeover almost unopposed.

The quicker a negotiated solution is concluded the better. It looks as though Eastern Ukraine is lost to the West just like the Crimea. Why not try a confederation like Denmark and Greenland. Denmark is in the EU but Greenland, which is officially part of Denmark, is not. The people of Greenland have  political autonomy but they are happy, in the main, with their confederal relationship with Denmark.

The rest of the Ukraine does not have to be broken up after the secession of the Crimea but the Russians in Eastern Ukraine will need to be given cast iron guarantees for the security of their budding new "nations". This looks like the best that Western diplomacy can now achieve as there is no military option available and economic sanctions are considered to be an irritation rather than a deterrent.

It might be better to deal with a happy bear than to poke it with sticks which will be useless for defence if it decides to fight back.