When I travelled to Tokyo on business, many years ago, I knew a Japanese colleague who never went on the underground railway. It was his belief that it would not survive a really strong earth tremor whose epicentre was under or near the great city. The recent earthquake (Richter 9) had an epicentre over a hundred kilometers away; even so it gave Tokyo a substantial shaking for many minutes. An earthquake is a very frightening experience. The first time I felt even a small one I was in a traditional Japanese restaurant and decided to run away much to the amusement of my hosts and the waiting staff : it was about 4 on the Richter scale but the epicentre was not far from Tokyo. The local people seemed to be able to tell the difference in the strengths of the tremors. After this first experience I decided to go to the earthquake museum and learn a little more. Most of the buildings in Tokyo are built to withstand a substantial earthquake. This was proven to me when I woke up one night in my Hotel room to feel the whole building swaying, it was uncanny and frightening. There was no warning and you could hear the building creaking. I had learnt from my work colleagues and the museum not to run out of the building and not to stand near the window for fear of being thrown out but to shelter in a corner or under a table. After about ten seconds the shaking stopped but there was no way I could sleep again despite the jet lag. The next time, I felt an earthquake, I was on the upper floor of our office block and once again I could hear the building creaking, but this time I could see the the other office blocks swaying in the distance. Some of my Japanese colleagues got out their helmets and there was some sense of nervousness. This earthquake was about 5.2 on the Richter scale and the epicentre was not too far away. The last time, I felt an earthquake, it was 5.9 on the Richter scale and once again it was nearby. It was much more frightening. We were in the computer room in the basement of the office block. This time I could feel through my feet that the earth was actually moving and I felt as if I was going to lose my balance. I could hear the building moving and feel it shaking. This was more frightening even for my colleagues. It lasted for about 20 seconds but it felt like an eternity. The lifts in the building automatically stopped. Afterwards, we learnt that there had been some minor damage and the local trains had automatically stopped. This last time my Japanese colleague was able to convince me that Tokyo would be substantially damaged by an earthquake above 8 on the Richter scale - if the epicentre was underneath or nearby. That was why he never used the underground railway as it would not survive. I decided to still use the underground as I estimated that the risk was worth the benefit for a three month trip. But like him, if I lived and worked in Tokyo permanently, I do not think I would use the underground. In fact a medium strength earthquake was enough for me . I shall never take up permanent residence in an earthquake zone. The earthquakes are bad enough for me never mind the risks of a Tsunami. My experience is imprinted in my memory and I can still remember the strength of the tremors more than twenty years later. And reports of the New Zealand and Japan events have made me dream about the earth shaking all those years ago. Earthquakes are perfectly natural phenomena; they are not dangerous in themselves and there is nothing we can do to prevent them. We put ourselves in danger either by living in earthquake prone regions or building houses , factories and office blocks which are unable to withstand the shock. We are of course taking a risk by living in an earthquake zone but this risk can be mitigated by good construction standards. It would be possible to make concrete buildings which are completely earthquake proof but this would probably be prohibitively expensive. So there is always some risk so, therefore, each individual most assess that risk and take responsibility for any decision that he makes about where he chooses to live. This is not to say that we should not have sympathy for anyone killed or injured by an earthquake - even if they have taken that risk. The same would apply for mountaineers who are killed in accidents or soldiers who are killed in battle. We all take risks in our lives, I decided that the risk of using the underground railway in Tokyo was worth taking. Some people are forced to live in earthquake zones and have no choice about where they live for economic reasons; this is why the international community should help them.
Tsunami are a different matter they are more unpredictable and often cause much more damage than the earthquakes which initially drive them. They also cause damage at a much greater distance. We can protect ourselves from danger by living on higher ground and further from the coast and even more strenuous building standards. Once again people in poorer countries may not have the choice to relocate so this is why Tsunami warning centres must be maintained in all areas at risk.
We should be more realistic when making risks assessments , how many times have we been told by the authorities and scientists that a particular disaster is one in a thousand year event or is of unprecedented strength. The scientists, engineers and government of Japan got it wrong. Was it wise to build nuclear power stations so near to the coast? Were the defences against an earthquake and Tsunami sufficient? Should a major city and financial centre be built on an actual fault line? If a really major earthquake were to hit Tokyo directly the casualties resulting from a Tsunami could be colossal. The financial implications for the whole planet could be dire. It is time to act now to improve the protection for the megalopolis surrounding Tokyo. There is scientific evidence that one major earthquake can spark off major earthquakes within the vicinity in short order.
The recent earthquake which has sparked off the Fukushima nuclear power station crisis has once again raised the "green" issue of nuclear power stations. I still believe that nuclear power should be consider as an option to solve the possible crisis related to global warming by the use of fossil fuels. But we need a complete review of construction standards and the risks and contingency for the safe operation of Nuclear power stations. Above all we should re-consider where we have situated these stations and consider decommissioning those plants we have been built in zones which have a high risk of flooding from Tsunamis or damage from earthquakes.
All of us should be aware of the risks and I am amazed that unprotected houses are still being built on flood plains and that meteorologists still tell us that a flood or storm is a once in a thousand year event only to be followed by a similar natural disaster one year later. All of us should be sceptical.
I can remember the fear of the fallout from atmospheric nuclear bomb tests, we were assured by governments that this was not dangerous. Wisely, our governments then decided to negotiate nuclear test ban treaties and for once they assessed the risks correctly and decided that the risks were not worth the consequences.
We need to do the same today, when we conduct our daily lives, are the risks worth the consequences?